2008/04/29

A scary picture

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I'm not scared by terrorists, Muslims, Arabs, Chinese, North Koreans, Iranians or Russians - in fact, our secretary for internal affairs scares me more than AQ.

But this picture scares me a lot.
It shows the full members (blue) and observers (green) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Did you ever hear about this organization? I don't remember any reports about it in the past years and discovered it sometime in '07.
It's basically the nutrient solution for a new Warsaw Pact if we're unlucky.

Look at it - Russia, China, India, the Russia-friendly former USSR states and possibly even Iran. That's four nuclear powers and one wannabe. OK, Pakistan and India won't join the same alliance, so let's say three nuclear powers.

Russia has lots of raw materials and military technology, India and China have huge manufacturing capacity and unbelievable manpower.
If AQ scares you more than the chance that a SCO transforms into a real alliance, then you're really wrong here...

We better draw India into the Western camp or join the Indian camp soon!

Sven Ortmann

5 comments:

  1. That image makes it look like Taiwan is an observer. I'm pretty sure that's not the case.

    India IMHO is solidly in the NATO camp already.

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  2. No, it's actually a different colour for Taiwan, marking it as disputed. Check the link, that's where the image comes from.

    And India does not seem to be solidly in the NATO camp. Their ongoing tender for the next combat aircraft (involves competitors like Su-35, Typhon,...) might offer the next hint.
    But so far they're rather neutral and their border disputes with the PR China are quite marginal. China's close ties with Pakistan might be an obstacle, but such obstacles become peanuts if at some time these powers decide to really build a NATO counterweight.

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  3. What about the separatists in Jammu/Kashmir? They're mostly controlled by India right now, but they seem to want statehood.

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  4. Sven Ortmann2 May 2008 09:18

    That's a India-Pakistan conflict mostly.
    I believe that such smallish troubles wouldn't prevent an alliance if the Chinese wanted an alliance.
    And in the long run an alliance that combines the industrial power and manpower of India and China plus the expertise of Russia would be easily dominant and much more powerful than the Warsaw Pact.

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  5. chris franklin13 May 2008 11:37

    I am a little skeptical that Russia and China are going to turn in to old buddies any time soon. Back when Communism was the order of the day in Russia, you didn't see Russia and China sending each other a lot of Christmas Cards, so to speak.

    The way I figure it, the Chinese aren't getting friendly with Russia to sell them billions worth of rubber dog-crap normally destined for U.S. Walmarts. The Chinese want Russia for Oil (since the West now simply has too much of a presence in the Middle-East).

    Of course Russia knows oil is the center of gravity as far as China's interest in Russia is concerned. So the Russians are probably going to "bulldoze" the Chinese in to paying high oil prices any chance they get (Moscow: You want continued economic expansion, right Bejing?).

    Naturally, the Chinese will get irritated by the aforementioned.
    And since many millions of Chinese will have long since migrated- slash-infiltrated Russia under the guise of participating in its economic development, this will put China -- with its 1.2 billion -- in a great position to invade/occupy Russia -- with its mere 100 million -- probably in the next 50 years.

    I agree Russia's tactical nuclear weapons are a deterent against an invasion by millions of massed Chinese troops. But Russia's borders are huge; China doesn't have to do much "massing" to get the job done.

    Yes Chinese cities are vulnerable to strategic nukes, but so are Russian cities. I say Russia is probably going to be calling on the West for military assistance vs. China in the next 50 years.

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