2009/01/16

Trade news

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Just for those with interest in economics:

The U.S. trade balance deficit is collapsing, down from $ 56.690 billion to $ 40.442 billion in just one month (October to November).

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/trad_time_series.xls

That's a remarkable drop, and the November level wasn't seen since late 2003.
The change is only in goods trade, not in the services balance.

The global deleveraging movement might finally include a correction of trade imbalances of the USA and UK. Australia 's trade balance turned black last summer.
Small problem here: The UK's trade balance didn't improve yet.

I'm not optimistic about the trade balances of the southern EU members. The Euro might prevent such a correction (due to a lack of pressure from the currency exchange rate).

A reduction of imbalances is good news for everyone - the period of change will be unpleasant for many nations, though.
Many U.S.Americans worried a lot about their imports from the PR China and the latter's economic growth. Healthy trade balances could reduce both concerns a bit.

Sven Ortmann

edit 2009-02-14:

The December figure surprised me; only a marginal drop to about $ 39.9 billion deficit, I expected 25-35.
The November figure was corrected to about 41.6.
A monthly deficit of $ 40 billion would still be almost half a trillion annual deficit, way too much.

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