2011/02/22

1990 - 2010

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The turmoil in the Arab world certainly begins to look a lot like the one in the Warsaw Pact around 1990.

We know what happened after 1990; the red scare subsided in core NATO countries and many Eastern European countries joined NATO.

Who dares to go on record with the prediction that the same will happen with Islamophobia and Arab countries as well?

S O
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9 comments:

  1. I'll also go on record the other way. Chaos will be our new companion.

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  2. I think the key differnce is that Eastern Europeans were throwing off Comunist regimes that were antithetical to the democracies of Western European. This led the new republics to be very pro-west.

    In contrast, a lot of Arabs see their dictatorial regimes as being hand in glove with the western democracies. IMHO, that means any new Governments that emerge in the middle east are likely to be much cooler towards the west....

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  3. given that islamophobia has never derived from a fear of arab nationalism, anywhere, ever* i sincerely doubt this will happen.

    as to the second notion, i thought france and germany were justifying keeping turkey out the EU because it was not yet a good 'fit', rather than raving islamophobes? I have always supported Turkey's accession!

    * with the exception of the balkan states in the time of Suleiman the Magnificient

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  4. @JBT: EU and NATO ain't the same.

    @RATW: Tunisians already reached out to the EU for help with organising the elections (neutral election observers and such).
    Any new Arab true republic will certainly be frosty with Berlusconi, but the reasons for antipathy and sympathy towards Europe seem to be overall mixed.

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  5. The elephant in the room and the big difference between the two is OIL. Eastern Europe did not have anything we wanted.

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  6. Perhaps we should draw a line between the Western "arab" powers and the eastern Arab powers?

    http://www.tourismtunisia.com/

    Front page tourism tunisia, a young lady with long hair and bra clearly showing.

    http://www.tourismturkey.org/
    Front page tourism turkey, a man and a woman in a business suit.

    http://www.saudiarabia-travel.org/
    Front Page Tourism Saudi Arabia, no people at all....

    Egypt, has women, but they either stand behind men, or are head shots.


    The Western "Arab" "Islamic" states arent really arabs and they certainly dont follow arab brand islam either.

    They arent destined for War with us, but thats a damned sight more likely than them joining the EU.

    The Eastern States are a different matter entirely, for the reason our jedi master said.
    Eastern EUrope flocked the the west for protection from Russia, Who are we going to protect a theocratic oiligarchic Saudi Arabia from?
    We might need to protect Hungary, Bulgaria or Viena from its rampaging hordes...

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  7. Eastern europe had kin that we wanted to help and Russia had oil and natural gas. Massive investments commenced and economies were rebuilt. A lot better investment then indefinately supporting west european farmers with subsidies, I say.

    It will be interesting to see how much Saudi arabia will change. And will he revolutions sweep away the Iranian and palestinian so called democracies to be replaced with better ones?

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  8. @ Sven

    Ah, given that your analogue to the red-scare was the political problem of islamophobia, i presumed that your analogue to NATO entry had a likewise political nature, i.e. the EU.

    So yes, perhaps some of the western magreb nations will be offered NATO membership.

    That said, the first point stands:

    "given that islamophobia has never derived from a fear of arab nationalism, anywhere, ever* i sincerely doubt this [its subsidence] will happen [as a result of current events]."

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