tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post7612184245184972110..comments2024-03-27T20:37:08.065+01:00Comments on Defence and Freedom: A Western bargaining strategy concerning PutinUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-43505951886454301132014-05-07T18:15:27.420+02:002014-05-07T18:15:27.420+02:00I'm not sure how workable Luttwak's propos...I'm not sure how workable Luttwak's proposal is, even if he's someone generally worth paying attention to.<br /><br />Russia in 2014 is not exactly Russian in 1998. Professional salaries in top tier Russian cities are now comparable to those of Western Europe, and conservative patriotism is increasingly common in Russia's elite. Economic growth in Russia is also likely to be stronger in the Russia than in the West for the foreseeable future, and Russia is ramping up research spending while this is stagnant in most Western countries.<br /><br />Being on the USA sanctions list is now a point of pride for the Russian elite, and the entire State Duma passed a resolution requesting that they be sanctioned by the USA.<br /><br />A possible Russian counterattack against Luttwak's strategy would be for Russia to actively recruit the Russian diaspora back to Russia. The government could offer qualified diaspora talent a $20,000 cash grant, a luxury apartment in central Moscow or St. Petersburg (perhaps Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk for second tier talent), relocation expenses, and a guaranteed position paying a competitive salary.Thorfinnssonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-47414353662200505552014-05-06T12:40:12.651+02:002014-05-06T12:40:12.651+02:00Step back from the impressions of recent events.
T...Step back from the impressions of recent events.<br />The new government in Kiev is only getting into the job; its ineffective appearance may be gone within weeks already.<br /><br />Russia positioned itself as enemy and reduced the share of its followers inside the Ukraine by annexing the Crimea. Its influence on domestic Ukrainian politics is likely much diminished. The new government may even crack down on Moscow loyalists in bureaucracies effectively.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-59990551862265427562014-05-06T02:37:37.112+02:002014-05-06T02:37:37.112+02:00What about simply making Ukraine ungovernable for ...What about simply making Ukraine ungovernable for several years? Is Europe willing to pay to keep the Kiev government afloat?<br /><br />Could Russia regain a lot of influence on the "bounce"?Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-17289578344521148312014-05-05T18:36:56.486+02:002014-05-05T18:36:56.486+02:00Regarding the 2+4: Indeed, that's what I was s...Regarding the 2+4: Indeed, that's what I was saying in my second Paragraph: "without it being explicitly made part of binding treaties". It seems to have been made a big point behind the scenes, though.<br /><br />That being said: What worth is a bargaining chip, that can't really be bargained with, as one side (the Russians) will believe the others will "cash in" sooner or later anyways.Foxtrottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-1095165579556797332014-05-05T15:59:14.812+02:002014-05-05T15:59:14.812+02:00They would understand the power of that bargaining...They would understand the power of that bargaining chip first hand, and I presume they would expect the West to keep exploiting it.<br />This is only possible until the threat has been realized.<br /><br /><br />I looked into the 2+4 treaty recently and there's no agreement about no NATO expansion in there (the Warsaw Pact was still quite intact, after all).S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-19085801510610061652014-05-05T15:20:03.321+02:002014-05-05T15:20:03.321+02:00SO: Your strategy seems sound, but lack one import...SO: Your strategy seems sound, but lack one important detail: Why should the Russians believe "the West" would keep their word, after done deed? All indications in the past show that promises from the EU/NATO can't be trusted. Even if actions are not only based on mutual trust in "inofficial" promises, but on security council resolutions. [eg Resolution 1244's parts about the territorial integrety of 1999s Serbia.]<br /><br />On the account of NATO's eastern border staying at the Oder, the Russians agreed to remove forces from Germany. On the same account treaties about sovereignity concerning several former Soviet Republics have been made. <br />What the Russians got out of agreeing, without it being explicitly made part of binding treaties, is shown in your map snippet.<br />And do we actually believe, there's a single NATO/EU country that would sign a treaty explicitly banning Ukraine membership in either organisation? I don't.<br /><br />For me the whole Crimean/Ukraine situation directly stems from the Russians, and Putin in particular, not believing a single word out of the mouth of a single western head of government. And who can seriously fault them for that attitude? [Remember: "Russian's" are traditionally stronger on historical contexts in politics, then we "Westerners" are. And they've been continuosly screwed over in the past 100 years.]Foxtrottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-27171023087148172692014-05-05T13:32:24.609+02:002014-05-05T13:32:24.609+02:00Use the sanctions to strengthen the ongoing brain ...Use the sanctions to strengthen the ongoing brain drain.<br /><br />Using a NATO membership of Ukraine as blackmail sounds promising to constrain Russian ambitions. I doubt these are as limited as you suppose. Eastern Ukraine and Southern Ukraine are certainly up for grabs. they have a most important strategic role for Russian naval ambitions.<br />I'm not sure the Ukrainian speaking parts of the country can be counted as staunch opponents of Russia, that's what the blackmailing strategy depends upon. I do believe it possible that the situation is much worse and there is support for Russia among the Ukrainian speaking population. Ongoing rule by the Maidan-crowd and the civil war could strengthen this group in numbers and resolve, carrying the armed struggle beyond the borders of Russian language speakers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com