tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post1757234537265288846..comments2024-03-29T13:09:31.522+01:00Comments on Defence and Freedom: The waning of the 2005-2010 COIN theory fashion waveUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-38126112474436331822010-08-14T01:04:32.598+02:002010-08-14T01:04:32.598+02:00the map:
http://www.uruknet.de/uruknet-images/gr2...the map:<br /><br />http://www.uruknet.de/uruknet-images/gr2007121600060.gifS Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-78287975207921368062010-08-12T08:16:34.912+02:002010-08-12T08:16:34.912+02:00I don't think that the problem was stupidity. ...I don't think that the problem was stupidity. There's always someone who can argue that this or that war is stupid.<br /><br />The problem is cost-benefit analysis. Some stupid wars produce domestic political benefits, some are just good for distracting the groundlings, while others wind up producing unexpected economic or military benefits.<br /><br />The "magic" of COIN was that it gave the fools an illusion that they could get some profit from their folly. As you pointed out, this was only the case if the local government was truly capable of taking over and quashing the rebellion. And such a government would not want a bunch of armed foreigners hanging around trying to tell it what to do.<br /><br />So the difference was that if someone with the chops to make the Bushies listen in 2003 or 2004 had pointed this out...<br /><br />Naah. The Bushies used COIN to justify their stupid policy ideas, not to implement them.<br /><br />But I'd argue that the probability of seeing just this sort of thing is much greater than seeing conventional force-on-force warfare, at least over the next 50 years or so. So stupid or not, killing this moronic idea may be as important as trying to configure conventional forces for future conventional engagements.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-16649272749231210082010-08-11T21:40:04.943+02:002010-08-11T21:40:04.943+02:00Well, I couldn't have made the point in 2004. ...Well, I couldn't have made the point in 2004. I was utterly disinterested in the whole nonsense at that time.<br /><br />I could have argued in 2004 that the whole Afghanistan and Iraq affairs were stupid, though.Svennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-9831551891182833552010-08-11T05:29:55.558+02:002010-08-11T05:29:55.558+02:00Sven, I'd argue that the entire brief enthusia...Sven, I'd argue that the entire brief enthusiasm with "counterinsurgency" rested on various misreadings of historical examples and some enormous mistaken assumptions.<br /><br />Historically, there have only been two ways of "winning" guerilla wars/civil wars; you either exhaust one side by a combination of good intelligence and police/military security work (as happened in places like El Salvador and Northern Ireland - oh, and it helps if your guerrilla enemy makes some foolish mistakes that alienate the population) or you just flat-out kill enough people to thin out the "sea" the guerrilla "swims" in, as the Sri Lankans did to the LTTE. The former only really works with a strong local partner. The latter works - ask any 19th Century colonial power - but it's not really practical for the casualty-adverse, tactically ponderous U.S. forces.<br /><br />Malaya was always <i>sui generis</i>, and the political solution (in effect, "winning" by losing - giving the locals what they wanted, independence, as a condition to abandoning the MRLA) wasn't repeatable. <br /><br />Wars like Algeria just drive home that it's very common for the foreigner to win militarily just as things fall apart politically.<br /><br />The elephant in the room that the COINdinstas ignored and you emphasize is that you can't really do this as a foreigner. It will sort-of work with a local proxy, but the U.S.'s record on that is exceptionally weak. We're awful at picking our proxies, preferring other traits (like Western-ish appearance and affection) rather than competence, and we tend to "train" them to be little U.S. Armies, ignoring that they haven't the resources or the technical base to imitate our heavily mechanized methods. Once the locals have had enough of you - and how many of us really WANT heavily-armed strangers wandering around? - and you have failed to find an effective local quisling, you're done.<br /><br />I wish someone had delivered the essence of your post to the NCA in 2004. Sadly, I doubt they would have listened then. Hell, they're not even listening now...FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-6291228905901464082010-08-10T23:52:09.968+02:002010-08-10T23:52:09.968+02:00cheers Sven, look forward to it.cheers Sven, look forward to it.Jedibeeftrixhttp://jedibeeftrix.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-31935826304604801192010-08-10T19:34:54.149+02:002010-08-10T19:34:54.149+02:00The map shows the change in ethnic composition of ...The map shows the change in ethnic composition of Baghdad from early 2006 to late 2007.<br />I can upload a big version when I'm back at my computer.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-21057850811356572942010-08-09T14:26:59.976+02:002010-08-09T14:26:59.976+02:00I also think the COIN theory will wane, but for a ...I also think the COIN theory will wane, but for a different reason: The persistent threat from conventional military powers. I don’t think it should be overstated, but on the other hand the recent sinking of the corvette “Cheonan” should be a reminder that the threat is not only from terrorists, pirates or insurgents, but also nation states. <br /><br />China is for example continuing to build up its military powers and is about to introduce the new DF21 “carrier killer” missile. It has forced the United States to reduce its naval presence in the Yellow Sea because it didn’t want carriers within striking distance of Beijing. Russia is about to undertake a major overhaul of its military power and has recently conducted a military exercise called Vostok 2010 which for all intends and purposes was a scenario for war with China. <br /><br />Like I said it shouldn’t be overstated, but I also think there has been a tendency to exaggerate the threat from non-state actors and make them larger than life. Which is really to only excuse we have to fight in Afghanistan or in Iraq.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-63419903985386445592010-08-08T20:20:11.297+02:002010-08-08T20:20:11.297+02:00Hey Sven,
What is the map graphic half way down t...Hey Sven,<br /><br />What is the map graphic half way down the article depicting?<br /><br />I cannot click on it to enlarge it for some reason.<br /><br />Thank you.Jedibeeftrixhttp://jedibeeftrix.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-263896135043594462010-08-08T11:16:30.149+02:002010-08-08T11:16:30.149+02:00This may be of interest to you:
http://www.cast.ru...This may be of interest to you:<br />http://www.cast.ru/eng/?id=386So?noreply@blogger.com