tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post3392747349610226064..comments2024-03-27T20:37:08.065+01:00Comments on Defence and Freedom: Assorted thoughts about SyriaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-89616380263323727022013-08-29T13:28:33.372+02:002013-08-29T13:28:33.372+02:00We just watch one heck of events unfold from Tunis...We just watch one heck of events unfold from Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Iran to Afghanistan. And South Sudan will secure the complete oilfield output some time in the future.<br />It kind of looks like a "formation" of the core oil regions with Saudi money and US weapons. Old structures are swept away and I wonder how the Chinese influence is affected by these events.<br />My definition of "formation" is to change a society in order to reflect a new preset pattern. It's not the same as conquest that strives to secure land and resources. The early Muslim conquest or the Eastern crusades are examples of older mixes of conquest and formation. Having formation without much conquest could be described as the American way ever since they stopped territorial expansion.<br />It makes sense in an environment with increasing importance of intellectual property and control of the flow of resources because it's a focus on obtaining these essentials.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-83490158497723208342013-08-29T10:33:42.005+02:002013-08-29T10:33:42.005+02:00I dont think, its sabre rattling per se, but rathe...I dont think, its sabre rattling per se, but rather that the hawks are more isolated than before. See Cameron and his goons, clear hawks, but they are being reigned in for the moment, too many people nudging and reminding how things went the last time around.<br /><br />Also as fas as Obama is concerned, I rather disagree with the view of *threatening Syria and they refuse to fall in line*. His red line may enter history as one of the minor classic cases of severe miscalculation caused by feeling pushed into a corner. <br /><br />See, I dont think, this whole red line-talk back then was directed at Assad at all. It was aimed at the hawks back home (both the right-wingers and the liberal interventionists, some of which are sitting in his very cabinet, see Rice) and to a more limited degree at the parts of the "international community", that for one reason or another seek out American reassurance.<br /><br />I think, his logic back then basically went like 'Alright, have a statement to make. Lets pick as our focus something, that - lets be serious - has no chance in hell of happening as such' (wink wink nudge nudge @Assad).<br />Its just a notion of course, but I think, he never figured, what the ramifications of his statement really could mean, how it might induce some interest groups to actually exploit the CW-red line, such as earlier this year with that phony CW attack (which the investigators under Del Ponte back then more or less directly blamed the rebels for) and potentially even in the current case. Not suggesting, that this really is the case, IMO government forces could well be behind the current incident, but it just demonstrates, how messy it is to get involved in someone else's civil war, especially when there is clearly no grasp in the West about who there wants what, is doing what and why. Very few people in charge at the moment seem to have both feet firmly on the ground in regard to what the national self-interest might be. Its also interesting, how foreign policy seems to increasingly detach itself from popular interest and sentiments, with very little communication between politicians and their people (even the usual meaningless phrases are getting scarce). Not suggesting, that this is wholly the politicians fault (though their share is significant).<br /><br />paranoreply@blogger.com