tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post4285076899413107903..comments2024-03-27T20:37:08.065+01:00Comments on Defence and Freedom: How to invade the Baltic countries and get away with itUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-63096417138714591832016-08-10T14:26:29.355+02:002016-08-10T14:26:29.355+02:00The russians used nukes against france and the Uk ...The russians used nukes against france and the Uk nukes fly.<br /> End of the world.woodybrightonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18129530050493651437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-14078013802885462016-08-08T14:43:59.367+02:002016-08-08T14:43:59.367+02:00Thanks Sven for well thought and written scenario....Thanks Sven for well thought and written scenario. <br /><br />I disagree with some commenters that Baltic countries aren't important enough to justify military action. Over the centuries Russian strategy has focused on<br />a) having enough territory between Moscow and a potential invader from the west<br />b) securing access to the sea. <br /><br />Eastern Baltic shore annexed to Russia and ethnically cleansed to contain a majority of Russians would count towards both aims seemingly forever and it's easy to imagine it as a desirable legacy for neo-imperialistic/nationalist administration in Kreml.<br /><br />However, limited de-escalatory nuclear war is reckless and stupid idea (which of course doesn't prevent it being planned among powerful military decision-makers). Surrendering oneself to nuclear blackmail once makes sure it will happen again, meaning NATO would be forced to make similar of stronger response. Stir in some cyberwar-boosted fog of war and a full scale nuclear exchange is not just possible but likely.<br /><br />scip<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-30790906767727492752016-08-08T01:26:05.685+02:002016-08-08T01:26:05.685+02:00The bombing of the channel tunnel is very risky: y...The bombing of the channel tunnel is very risky: you are pretty much guaranteed to kill civilians with a nuke, you humiliate a nuclear power by preventing their contribution to the conventional war, you escalate to tactical nukes, and you do this with a first strike...<br /><br />With the monitoring for the comprehensive test ban treaty, and the civilian monitors, the the nature of the explosion will be public knowledge within hours at most. Considering this strike is also deep into western Europe, I have a hard time to see anything stopping a retaliatory strike using a tactical nuke on basically any semi-plausible military target and not much preventing a very expensive deep strike at something symbolic.<br /><br />I also think your epilogue is very optimistic, Putin has shown an appetite for using nuclear weapons offensively and unprovoked and you think Hawks would be stopped by this? Of course not, at most two years before some covert plan or other is approved and a liquidation plan is put in effect, maybe old school intercontinetal stuff with some added EW/cyber to prevent a retaliation? Anything goes when your opponent is a mad man with a bomb to kill us all and who already killed your friend. Rettawnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-61682327072579916502016-08-01T12:21:55.492+02:002016-08-01T12:21:55.492+02:00Thank you for analysis, I hope it will be widely r...Thank you for analysis, I hope it will be widely read and taken seriously.<br /><br />I just want to add a couple of notes.<br /><br />- Baltic states are not a very valuable asset by itself. There are no coal, oil etc. It’s a matter of proud to have Baltic states under russian control, but hardly more. Especially with a lot of escaping locals, low support for Russia (it’s not Crimae or east Ukraine) and damaged infrastructure.<br />- Putin seems very cautios. He’s a spy not a warrior after all. He would try to get loyal government in at least Estonia and Latvia. If it would seem hopeless, he would try other possible ways without triggering response from NATO. It would be too risky to attack other countries. That’s how Hitler got USA into the war and lost after all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-1138930869781443742016-07-30T15:25:17.207+02:002016-07-30T15:25:17.207+02:00Nobody would want to rely on that.But Russia is no...Nobody would want to rely on that.But Russia is not USSR.Them not being what they used to be is the reason everyone is so relaxed.We used to count the Soviet Armies.Now we count Bde's or BTG's.20000 KIA seems like an upper limit since A-stan.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10818844395342243610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-83358381990884390702016-07-29T22:34:20.172+02:002016-07-29T22:34:20.172+02:00Some people have difficulties accepting that easil...Some people have difficulties accepting that easily defensible locations are only defensible if defenders are present.<br />There's nothing on or around Iceland that would defend it so far.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-69690719368955366962016-07-29T22:33:28.708+02:002016-07-29T22:33:28.708+02:00It's no defensive positioning. The positioning...It's no defensive positioning. The positioning at the border of Russia makes only sense as offensive positioning.<br />The Western bases are likely Cold War leftovers.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-39378465636582523252016-07-29T22:04:29.568+02:002016-07-29T22:04:29.568+02:00"not even an air policing flight is there. Th..."not even an air policing flight is there. There's usually no surface warship in hundreds of nm radius from Iceland, particularly not in February."<br />And 48 hours after Russia invades the Baltics?<br /><br />All it takes is a picket destroyer being in the right place or a couple fighters having the fuel to investigate a radar blip and its a complete disaster.<br />You might be able to sanitise a corridor, you might get lucky, or you might not.TrThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07316335177828136131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-65596511193962208862016-07-29T20:05:36.550+02:002016-07-29T20:05:36.550+02:00Well done, a very interesting read.Well done, a very interesting read.Lurchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-72947581100811151882016-07-29T10:34:19.768+02:002016-07-29T10:34:19.768+02:00We saw that already happen. In the end, the Red Ar...We saw that already happen. In the end, the Red Army subdued the Baltics.<br />It may add to the deterrence, but I wouldn't want to rely on it, and it's nothing the allies can do much to support.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-68780757839583398522016-07-29T10:14:40.455+02:002016-07-29T10:14:40.455+02:00Guerilla warfare.The Baltics can count on 70000 me...Guerilla warfare.The Baltics can count on 70000 men in regular forces,reserves or militias.40%+ of the terrain is forrested.The area is 3 times the size of Dagestan and Chechnya combined.They can have easy acces to advanced weaponry like MANPADS and ATGM's,plus support from NATO SOF.<br /><br /> They may be undefendable,but they're also untenable.NATO might be shamed,but the Russian army and regime might end ruined. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10818844395342243610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-88406380095784165792016-07-29T08:19:13.618+02:002016-07-29T08:19:13.618+02:00Well the Russian concentration is so slow that it ...Well the Russian concentration is so slow that it might not be seen as such, but it is in fact happening.<br /><br />There are three new divisions being formed, with the central district providing the nucleus brigades.<br /><br />While mostly based on Ukraine, it adds a brigade in Velike Luki and Smolensk. Unless you consider the tripwire forces an answer there isn't much counter concentration.Madnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18111733709081883454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-13554655627684219942016-07-28T21:52:36.555+02:002016-07-28T21:52:36.555+02:00Politically, this defensive layout of Poland is re...Politically, this defensive layout of Poland is rerunning a defense against the WWII agressors. Can it be expected that Germany will be allowed any role in a Baltic defence that entails German forces in Poland? I consider it possible that Germans will be asked to get to the Baltics by other means. It would be paranoia and counterproductive, but in line with the seeming politics behind this Polish deployment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-78187661573125252762016-07-28T19:36:21.332+02:002016-07-28T19:36:21.332+02:00NATO strategy is counter-concentration. A slowish ...NATO strategy is counter-concentration. A slowish concentration by Russian forces would be met by NATO counterconcentration (in theory). Thus the nervousness about Russian large scale maneoeuvres and my emphasis in very quick scenarios.<br /><br />It's questionable how quick the counterconcentration would be (not least because of political decisionmaking lag - the Bundeswehr would not easily be sent off into Poland in force), but to test this makes little sense for Putin. A NATO counterconcentration once established a single time will likely persist for a while, and wither away only over years. That's not a price Putin would like to pay for a mere test of NATO's lags.<br />The Russian military is badly stretched without having much land power in the Western MD already.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-59069366740018167682016-07-28T16:05:18.020+02:002016-07-28T16:05:18.020+02:00That is only true in the surprise strike scenario....That is only true in the surprise strike scenario. While a viable worst case scenario, for most scenarios where the units can be dispersed it creates big headaches for the Russian planners. <br /><br />WD has 3 skeleton corps, with one at Novgorod, Moskau and St. Petersburg.<br /><br />It is very likely all 3 will be expanded to include more then 1 or 2 maneuver brigades. Madnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18111733709081883454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-31549681307397304892016-07-28T09:10:33.835+02:002016-07-28T09:10:33.835+02:00Much of the Western MD has forces at Nizhny Novgor...Much of the Western MD has forces at Nizhny Novgorod, farther from Lithuania than Germany. The 6th Army at Leningrad and parts of the VDV matter instead.<br /><br />I suppose Lithuania should be subsidised into a 2nd Israel, with at least a divisional equivalent + urban militia.<br /><br />Estonia and Latvia don't matter so much IMO. <br /><br />Poland needs to relocate its army bases. Neither the concentration close to Kaliningrad Oblast nor the concentration at the German border make any sense.<br />Its air force is obsolete and meaningless, its tiny navy is meaningless as well.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-8632433599004647742016-07-28T08:11:00.386+02:002016-07-28T08:11:00.386+02:00Rereading it I wasn't clear, the Baltics need ...Rereading it I wasn't clear, the Baltics need a permanent defence force that is on par with the western district. Not tripwire, not mixed show of force, not a mobile quick reaction force for everywhere.Madnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18111733709081883454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-61766509269729910942016-07-27T23:27:16.560+02:002016-07-27T23:27:16.560+02:00The forces the Russians have facing Ukraine now do...The forces the Russians have facing Ukraine now do not need to be redeployed to make this scenario feasible and, to preserve strategic surprise, probably would not be. These forces are entirely adequate to contain any thrust by Ukraine looking to help NATO out.NWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-6719694362037259952016-07-27T21:16:56.455+02:002016-07-27T21:16:56.455+02:00The problem is, it is a perfectly fine counter mov...The problem is, it is a perfectly fine counter move to a lot of possible scenarios. USA bombs Assad, operation Baltic starts. <br />The good part is, it is a move that is best left not played, as the threat is stronger then the move itself. <br /><br />As a side note, the western allies are doing they best antagonize Turkey routine with the support for the Kurds. <br />The question is just is it calculated poking or just by chance. Madnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18111733709081883454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-12961042574576224072016-07-27T20:13:10.155+02:002016-07-27T20:13:10.155+02:00Iceland is essentially undefended, not even an air...Iceland is essentially undefended, not even an air policing flight is there. There's usually no surface warship in hundreds of nm radius from Iceland, particularly not in February.<br /><br />Once again, I like to point out that one shouldn't take security for granted without actually securing the area.<br />It's the same with some responses to the UK land forces topic; of course a Russian invasion of Norway is unlikely - because Norway is defended. That's the point. my suggestion was about how to do it more efficiently by applying a specific strategy.<br /><br />In the case of Iceland, security cannot be expected as ensured without defence. A Baltic defence plan probably requires U.S. airborne to be allocated to Iceland. I suppose I'm the first to state this publicly.<br /><br />All this is similar to the fallacy of the Cold War when planners presumed woodland and cities as unsuitable for possible Warsaw Pact invasion forces - but then did not have enough forced to actually defend these defensible areas - thus de facto opening them as avenues of attack.<br /><br />Way too often people think something's safe because it seems defensible, but then forget to think about how to defend it.<br /><br />Only a defended obstacle is an obstacle that matters.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-11216598193824078352016-07-27T19:49:37.100+02:002016-07-27T19:49:37.100+02:00Maybe Svaalbard, but I dont think they would risk ...Maybe Svaalbard, but I dont think they would risk Iceland.<br />Unless it was a "zero hour" thing.<br /><br />Its a 2000km flight, or more, three, four, more hours, it doesnt take much luck for a destroyer to take a few pot shots, or a couple of fighters flying a picket get in amongst them and, well, probably inflict more losses than Russia would lose everywhere else.TrThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07316335177828136131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-8432020347656171502016-07-27T16:38:59.751+02:002016-07-27T16:38:59.751+02:00I ignored it because the Ukraine is no threat to R...I ignored it because the Ukraine is no threat to Russia as of now and likely won't be anytime soon. <br />It's kinda self-evident that NATO wouldn't go to war with Russia if for example Russia overran and annexed all of Ukraine but a few weeks after using nukes against NATO over a much smaller issue.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-40308406309620336772016-07-27T16:02:54.056+02:002016-07-27T16:02:54.056+02:00You do not talk a lot about Ukraine. Would Russia ...You do not talk a lot about Ukraine. Would Russia just threathen escalation if Ukraine join the country to neutralize them like Sweden and Finland? Or use internal destablisation to further broke the country? Would they try to get some gain about Ukraine in the negociation table?killyekfaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01299593000975210668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-44682238611048671042016-07-27T14:50:47.916+02:002016-07-27T14:50:47.916+02:00Not quite my preferred genre.
I will not expand i...Not quite my preferred genre.<br /><br />I will not expand it with details because I think I've done what I wanted to do. It's meant to make many of my proposals more understandable.<br />I also wanted to stress that time is of the essence for deterrence and defence, not mass alone. The total strength is irrelevant in the first few weeks, and all later weeks can be made irrelevant by an aggressor.<br />British investments in Trident, Spanish army, almost all U.S. military power, Turkish military ... almost all of NATO's military power is irrelevant for its one least unlikely collective defence and deterrence requirement.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-59216273962008890032016-07-27T14:45:42.261+02:002016-07-27T14:45:42.261+02:00To "not make it worth it" is the essence...To "not make it worth it" is the essence of deterrence. From our perspective it's a feature, not a bug, of the scenario.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.com