tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post5595414199898091628..comments2024-03-16T11:54:44.590+01:00Comments on Defence and Freedom: Political and military deterrenceUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-31402268946028780702016-07-14T17:12:34.390+02:002016-07-14T17:12:34.390+02:00Oh, they will be annihilated very quickly. And I t...Oh, they will be annihilated very quickly. And I think the decision makers are well aware of that. But for the moment, the baltic states might be calmed down, and maybe Russia is actually deterred. But you are right: as you made it clear, the European militaries are ill prepared for a counter-offensive in the Baltics, so maybe Russia is not deterred. And maybe the public reaction is "enough blood has been shed, let's stop this war before it begins." To my taste, this game is too cynical.CSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-63592869293142513422016-07-13T18:11:53.538+02:002016-07-13T18:11:53.538+02:00This sounds like one of the theories about Perl Ha...This sounds like one of the theories about Perl Harbor; that Roosevelt had the Pacific Fleet sacrificed as bait in order to push his people into war against Japan.<br /><br />Your plan may backfire completely. The little predeployed forces could be annihilated, shock the public in FRA, UK etc - and thus ensure that their participation in a counteroffensive to liberate Latvia and Estonia is all but impossible.<br /><br />Meanwhile, deploying a corps equivalent forward would provoke Russian counter-deployments "to protect St. Petersburg" and would thus most likely fail to improve the regional balance of power in the first days of a conflict.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-8292666064716392312016-07-13T14:24:27.676+02:002016-07-13T14:24:27.676+02:00Let's imagine Europe's main NATO forces wi...Let's imagine Europe's main NATO forces with relevance for the defence of Eastern Europe (the militaries of GB, France, Germany and maybe Italy) were indeed done well and suited for a quick reaction. They would still be of little use for the Baltics and Poland if they never leave their home countries. In these countries, we see resentment to a war against Russia in case it invades the Baltics. The deployment of multinational "robust" batallions is of little military relevance in case of a real war, but still, they get the Allies involved in the Baltics and reduce the probability of Germany, France, Italy or any other Ally shuffling out of responsibility.CSnoreply@blogger.com