tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post6877154156627712075..comments2024-03-27T20:37:08.065+01:00Comments on Defence and Freedom: INF 2.0Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-36345283772444630612019-08-21T23:23:42.104+02:002019-08-21T23:23:42.104+02:00The only suitable seeker would have been Radiesche...The only suitable seeker would have been Radieschen, a passive radar. It was meant for the Bv 246 anti-radar glide bomb. <br />Passive infrared seekers for attacking furnaces especially of steel works were considered (and supposedly blamed by Hitler for the accurate Oboe night bombing attacks), but AFAIk proved impractical at the time. It wouldn't have worked on a 40's rocket due to air friction heat anyway.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-23824011827752689072019-08-21T23:20:58.812+02:002019-08-21T23:20:58.812+02:00The evidence offered by SDB (small bomb, great pre...The evidence offered by SDB (small bomb, great precision, great penetration, rather affordable) is among the evidence that hasn't sunk in in most places. A normal-sized MRBM could carry three such warheads to a useful range.<br /><br />There is no evidence that Russia is actually preparing the kind of surprise attack from hell that I describe, though. Iskander in particular follows the traditional recipe of dedicated launch vehicles that's not suitable for a quasi-parallel mass launch. Even the old Sergeant missile's launcher was more suitable to it and the promo video of a ISO container missile launcher showed be the logical modern choice. S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-31837174282656076652019-08-21T20:03:25.128+02:002019-08-21T20:03:25.128+02:00Imagine the later stages of WW2 if the Germans had...Imagine the later stages of WW2 if the Germans had developed a precision guided V2 and had Ar234s to provide targeting info.Chris Werbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12401452513193996839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-70399434398872361842019-08-21T13:52:16.584+02:002019-08-21T13:52:16.584+02:00I have argued the threat of conventionally tipped ...I have argued the threat of conventionally tipped MRBMs and cruise missiles elsewhere many times, but get pooh-poohed with the "The Russians could never afford significant quantities of them" argument which is obviously wrong. I think the threat is actually worse than pictured here as there would not be anything stopping an MRBM or IRBM carrying multiple guided warheads or even a bus carrying dozens of drones with 20kg warheads which could each attack pre-determined targets over a wide area. We know the Russians still have offensive chemical capability, their having kindly demonstrated it on dissidents on our own doorstep - it doesn't take much to work out the disruption a missile even suspected of delivering such a payload would cause. It's something we have no counter to.Chris Werbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12401452513193996839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-31124929747361325282019-08-18T16:53:26.931+02:002019-08-18T16:53:26.931+02:00You're operating with way too many nonsensical...You're operating with way too many nonsensical assumptions. Killing INF did not serve U.S. security in any way. I literally wrote an entire blog post about that.<br />Besides, he's 'disrupting Europe' for idiotic giggles. Look at how he promotes Brexit, neonazis and insulting European countries. That's a moron at work, you shouldn't pretend that such behaviour is reasonable.<br /><br />"You are talking about barring the US Navy from Europe, and yet believe NATO still exists?"<br /><br />INF banned American missiles from Europe and NATO persisted. It's really only an issue if one stupidly insists on turning it into an issue.<br />Besides, you should step and look at world history. It's not normal for a navy to patrol distant waters unless it has a colonial empire. <br />You should also step back and read the North Atlantic Treaty full text. It doesn't mention permanent deployment of armed forces in allied territory.<br /><br />You seem to have normalised the lying moron (and the unusual features of NATO), and that is reflecting poorly on you.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-12174881755390951702019-08-18T16:29:50.120+02:002019-08-18T16:29:50.120+02:00"The lying moron did stupid, and harmed the s..."The lying moron did stupid, and harmed the security interests of allies. "<br />But why should he care?<br />Why should the US put US security at risk to avoid disrupting Europe?<br /><br />"There may be a Brexit, but nobody talks about the UK leaving NATO."<br />You are talking about barring the US Navy from Europe, and yet believe NATO still exists?Domohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00240964731398145995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-53644676870863760732019-08-18T12:58:03.614+02:002019-08-18T12:58:03.614+02:00The lying moron did stupid, and harmed the securit...The lying moron did stupid, and harmed the security interests of allies. This is a completely justified statement regardless of how important Europe is. BTW, given the foreign policy incompetence and smaller de facto economy and much smaller population, the U.S. should learn about its own insignificance.<br /><br />"Why should the US care if the defence plans of Europe are thrown in to disarray, any more than if the defence plans of Brazil are?"<br /><br />A good ally does. A poor ally deserves to be treated accordingly. Hence I don't think the banning of USN ships would be too bad.<br /><br />"Why would Canada agree to that?"<br /><br />It already does (see Goose Greene) and only stands to gain with some economic activity in its still-wastelands.<br /><br />"You may not have noticed, but the UK and EU are in the throes of about the most severe falling out since we last bombed Germany."<br /><br />Not really, only the dysfunctional right wing has such issues with Continental Europe. Besides, the RN and RAF are near-useless for actual deterrence & defence without INF 2.0 or the described emergency measures. Having a hissy fit does not change the military situation.<br /><br />"for what possible reason would we want to free up your armed forces to be used against us?"<br /><br />That looks like an idiotic line to me. There may be a Brexit, but nobody talks about the UK leaving NATO.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-55701247980540989152019-08-18T12:30:43.972+02:002019-08-18T12:30:43.972+02:00After the horrors of the second world war reduced ...After the horrors of the second world war reduced Europe to rubble and wiped out a generation of its male population, Europe was still more than half of the worlds economy.<br />Europe WAS the world.<br />The World ordered its affairs based on what Europe wanted.<br /><br />But now, after 75 years of decline, that is simply not the case.<br /><br />You keep saying, Trump does X/Y/Z and its inconvenient for Europe, but you dont seem able to grasp that nobody cares if they inconvenience Europe any more, in fact, its actually a goal for some people.<br /><br />"These are my three pillars for my assertion that conventional 500...3,500 km precision-guided missiles are a terrible security threat to Europe."<br />"The news media totally misses the real problem. INF was a nice cost-savings deal for the very late Cold War, but afterwards it turned into a requirement for the viability of Western European air power."<br /><br />Not necessarily disputing this, just, and?<br />Why should the US care if the defence plans of Europe are thrown in to disarray, any more than if the defence plans of Brazil are? <br /><br />"We'd then (at the latest) need to move much funding from air forces and navies to armies AND deploy at least half of our combat and combat support aircraft to a permanent training mission in Canada where a surprise attack would be much more difficult to pull off."<br />Why would Canada agree to that?<br /><br />"Germany, Poland, Baltic countries, France, UK, Turkey, Italy and Spain would probably be required members."<br />You may not have noticed, but the UK and EU are in the throes of about the most severe falling out since we last bombed Germany.<br />The UK would likely buy in to a US SRBM program *because* it complicates the defence picture for Europe, you cant threaten us if your eastern flank is volatile, for what possible reason would we want to free up your armed forces to be used against us?Domohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00240964731398145995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-1246898830259379002019-08-14T21:37:20.765+02:002019-08-14T21:37:20.765+02:00I'm sorry. New Zealand and Denmark banned nucl...I'm sorry. New Zealand and Denmark banned nuclear-powered ships from their ports. Not sure about Italy.<br />In Japan it's merely contentious.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-54167226837878289682019-08-14T19:37:43.500+02:002019-08-14T19:37:43.500+02:00That's not the case for Japan. The US permane...That's not the case for Japan. The US permanently deploys a CVN at Yokosuka (CVN-76) and there are regular SSN port visits.<br /><br /><br /><br />B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-65347080432628713442019-08-14T18:22:10.254+02:002019-08-14T18:22:10.254+02:00USN ships with nuclear reactor are banned from sev...USN ships with nuclear reactor are banned from several allies' ports, including Japanese. It's only a big deal if you want to make it a big deal.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-79677926544770833082019-08-14T16:38:32.794+02:002019-08-14T16:38:32.794+02:00I think it would be very hard for the US to stay i...I think it would be very hard for the US to stay in NATO (both politically and practically) if the EU effectively banned US warships from entering EU territory. B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-59566701613076140712019-08-13T23:55:11.280+02:002019-08-13T23:55:11.280+02:00I wrote a whole blog post once about how very muc...I wrote a whole blog post once about how very much NATO has warped the idea of an alliance. The deployment of troops on allied territory during peacetime has hardly ever been part of actual alliances. Moreover, it's no requirement of the North Atlantic Treaty, save for the contribution of staff to NATO HQs (which would not be affected).<br /><br />The lying moron killed off INF 1.0, and avoiding the possibility of a giant conventional MRBM/IRBM first strike by Russia is more important than what little the Americans actually contribute to European security in my opinion.<br /><br />So I don't see the hypothetical INF 2.0 as a NATO killer. If anything, it's the lying moron and a warped perception of what an alliance is or what constitutes NATO.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-27976318944028858832019-08-13T22:03:41.311+02:002019-08-13T22:03:41.311+02:00Effectively kicking the US military out of EU terr...Effectively kicking the US military out of EU territory would end NATO. So yes, passing INF 2.0 would be the culprit. <br /><br />Without it, NATO could continue to mutter along, hopefully outlasting Don the Con. <br />B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-80291937719459549752019-08-13T21:49:10.286+02:002019-08-13T21:49:10.286+02:00"Assuming Brexit, one could imagine the US Si..."Assuming Brexit, one could imagine the US Sixth Fleet relocating there."<br /><br />UK was mentioned as one of the necessary signatories ("European NATO").<br /><br />"Joint exercises with the US in EU territorial waters, land, or air spaces would have to go, or be heavily curtailed."<br /><br />I don't see much value in surface USN for European security anyway. SSN ops would be unaffected.<br /><br />"At that point NATO might as well be dead."<br /><br />INF 2.0 wouldn't be the true culprit. Besides, I've long been convinced that the biggest utility of NATO is to keep Europe and U.S. from becoming antagonists. That function would be gone if the lying moron stays in power anyway. S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-62441790928021045032019-08-13T21:43:02.140+02:002019-08-13T21:43:02.140+02:00Joint exercises with the US in EU territorial wate...Joint exercises with the US in EU territorial waters, land, or air spaces would have to go, or be heavily curtailed.B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-45845885870634650852019-08-13T21:41:29.430+02:002019-08-13T21:41:29.430+02:00Spain might balk at Rota losing a major customer. ...Spain might balk at Rota losing a major customer. Italy might be the same with NSA Naples. Or they might not. Assuming Brexit, one could imagine the US Sixth Fleet relocating there.<br /><br />USN port visits would be effectively eliminated. <br /><br />US Army units with PrSM might fall in this treaty. <br /><br />USAF units may as well, if they can carry JASSM-ER.<br /><br />At that point NATO might as well be dead.<br /><br />Yes, the Russians would love this.B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-1714983711259911322019-08-13T21:19:35.952+02:002019-08-13T21:19:35.952+02:00The USN would likely simply continue to cruise the...The USN would likely simply continue to cruise the Med just in case a POTUS wants some of the brown people countries there bombed. Morocco might offer them a base.<br /><br />Regarding Predators; I suppose the definition of "missile" includes that it cannot be re-used.<br />In fact, combat drones could be used to circumvent the rules listed - but that would be a violation in spirit, just as would have been British land-based cruise missiles during INF 1.0. I suppose the combat drone arsenal would not be grown to disarming first strike sizes.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-8486602782017893452019-08-13T21:04:47.242+02:002019-08-13T21:04:47.242+02:00Well, you'd want any INF 2.0 "sticks"...Well, you'd want any INF 2.0 "sticks" to be land-based, since otherwise their air bases are subject to the same destabilizing attacks from ballistic missiles you're trying to eliminate. <br /><br />I suppose your plan does have some definite "carrots" for Russia. One being effectively kicking the US Navy out of Europe. <br /><br />"European signatories do not permit U.S. or Canadian ships with 500...3,500 km missiles to enter their territorial seas (exception for passing the Straits)"<br /><br />Since virtually every US DDG and submarine, and soon aircraft carrier, carry missiles like this, they would be banned from EU territorial waters. <br /><br />"Range of missiles defined as range when carrying a 50 kg payload (warhead + guidance, could be calculated based on test results with a heavier payload)***"<br /><br />This could effectively ban Predator-style UAVs, since they can carry Hellfires and bombs. Really any UAV that has a 50kg or greater payload, as they could be easily converted to a slow cruise missile.<br /><br />B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-73030204549195760592019-08-13T19:58:20.960+02:002019-08-13T19:58:20.960+02:00Well, supposedly the Russians have no MRBM/IRBM pr...Well, supposedly the Russians have no MRBM/IRBM program for land-based missiles, so one should not need many bargaining chips...<br /><br />Serious interest in purchases of Indian & Israeli missiles as well as in additional Apache/SCALP/Storm Shadow/TAURUS/SOM ALCMs might do the trick.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-32081448126147342292019-08-13T18:53:53.112+02:002019-08-13T18:53:53.112+02:00How do you get Russia to sign such an agreement wi...How do you get Russia to sign such an agreement without the US or China involved?<br /><br />Maybe the EU needs to start a nuclear IRBM/SRBM program. That seemed to scare them enough into INF 1.0. B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-12055855505462841412019-08-12T15:47:48.272+02:002019-08-12T15:47:48.272+02:00"My guess is that European politicians are so..."My guess is that European politicians are so unimaginative and used to muddling through without any actual strategy that they couldn't pull this (or anything smarter) off. The ability to develop and enact strategy has atrophied in the West. We'd need a von Bismarck-calibre politician to change this quickly."S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-48887342543849730012019-08-11T22:03:07.079+02:002019-08-11T22:03:07.079+02:00Poland would still be unlikely to join, not becaus...Poland would still be unlikely to join, not because it wouldn't be beneficial, but because of "other" political reasons.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-284670283155928392019-08-11T20:44:01.671+02:002019-08-11T20:44:01.671+02:00You need to compare a strike fighter fleet to SBRM...You need to compare a strike fighter fleet to SBRM+SAM batteries once you take the fight against hostile air power into account. I merely kept it simple.<br /><br />Poland would be among the great beneficiaries of INF 2.0 - look at the removal or SRBM from Kaliningrad Oblast that I've put in. Right now, practically all Polish investments in high value targets such as combat aircraft are pointless and an expression of incompetence.<br /><br />Ballistic missiles are expensive if you buy NATO designs. You could just as well buy Indian or Israeli designs, and the Russians don't have a habit of making missiles needlessly expensive either.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-83050378322160141592019-08-11T14:42:38.433+02:002019-08-11T14:42:38.433+02:00Well, aircraft aren't one trick ponies meant f...Well, aircraft aren't one trick ponies meant for ground-attack. To some degree, things like air-defence, reconnaissance and striking mobile targets require aircraft. UAVs aren't yet at the required level to reliably fill those roles. Having resources available for ground-attack is an added bonus of operating a fleet of aircraft. Striking fixed targets is definitely a domain where ballistic missiles would be useful though. A saturation attack would be incredibly hard to counter, though with proper dispersion and hardening of infrastructure, not entirely impossible. Ballistic missiles are still quite expensive.<br /><br />When it comes to the possible INF 2.0. I could maybe understand Italy, Germany and France joining it, but what about countries like Poland? Surely there would be political pushback within Europe. I'm also not sure whether it would be possible to make Russia hold up their side of the bargain properly. They could easily transport such missiles from the other side of the country by trains if they really wanted. The issue is quite tricky to be honest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com