tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post7589889758063467029..comments2024-03-27T20:37:08.065+01:00Comments on Defence and Freedom: Link drop September 2020Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-11849485349688216262020-10-30T22:13:56.836+01:002020-10-30T22:13:56.836+01:00Learn to read. I mentioned right away that I didn&...Learn to read. I mentioned right away that I didn't check the figures. I didn't use the graphic to bash any one country, either.<br />I used it to bash the stupid %GDP military spending metric.<br /><br />You never understood that, instead you're delving in pointless hostility. Which means you're not welcome here. I've encountered enough people to recognize patterns, and you show the pattern of a useless personality (and that's the nice way to put it).S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-58252337912464179312020-10-29T23:48:58.405+01:002020-10-29T23:48:58.405+01:00Your disclaimer would have me believe that GDP in ...Your disclaimer would have me believe that GDP in Q3 is 33.1% higher than it was in Q3 19. That's obviously and clearly incorrect. Face it, you didn't do your research on a petty meme and accidentally posted a factually incorrect graph.Larwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-64426812385789623712020-10-29T20:31:16.703+01:002020-10-29T20:31:16.703+01:00The chart was about a defined period, and Q3 was n...The chart was about a defined period, and Q3 was not part of it. What you wrote was like "now that I show you white milk, do you agree to something completely unrelated?".<br />You should look up what the Q3 figure means at all. An easy explainer; <br />https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1321502769308672000<br /><br />About the graphic I posted; I ceased to look into it after I found some not here mentioned comparability issues. I left the comments as is and I have the disclaimer at the graphic, that's fine enough.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-21266645212433246432020-10-29T14:15:54.076+01:002020-10-29T14:15:54.076+01:00Now that US Q3 GDP came in at 33.1% will you now a...Now that US Q3 GDP came in at 33.1% will you now accept your chart was bogus?<br /><br />https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.htmlLarwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-34664226663572974152020-09-12T02:56:10.135+02:002020-09-12T02:56:10.135+02:00From Yale
https://macmillan.yale.edu/news/after-se...From Yale<br />https://macmillan.yale.edu/news/after-second-quarter-free-fall-eu-and-us-economies-need-fiscal-stimulus-now<br /><br />"Last Thursday, commentators and analysts alike were startled when the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the Gross Domestic Product, after dropping by 1.3 percent in the first quarter, had dropped by 9.5 percent in the second quarter, which meant it had contracted by 32.9 percent on an annualized basis—the amount it would contract if it dropped by 9.5 percent for four consecutive quarters. It was by far the worst quarterly drop in the GDP since the government started releasing quarterly estimates in 1947.<br /><br />But as bad as the second-quarter contraction of the U.S. economy was, the extent of contraction of the European economy announced the next day by the European Commission was worse"Larwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-37187852126504505532020-09-12T02:52:39.021+02:002020-09-12T02:52:39.021+02:00https://www.npr.org/2020/07/30/897151141/germanys-...https://www.npr.org/2020/07/30/897151141/germanys-economy-suffers-biggest-quarterly-drop-on-record<br /><br />Article that compares German to US drop.Both countries have since revised data.<br />"The decline in Germany's output last quarter, if calculated on an annual basis, would amount to 34.7%. That's a steeper drop than the annualized 32.9% plunge in the U.S. economy during the second quarter of 2020,"Larwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-29202278190051649832020-09-12T02:49:14.360+02:002020-09-12T02:49:14.360+02:00Tables only leads to excel sheet I cannot share, b...Tables only leads to excel sheet I cannot share, but here's a link to the interactive data I just mentioned. <br /><br />https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=surveyLarwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-70644653433607883062020-09-12T02:47:27.151+02:002020-09-12T02:47:27.151+02:00If the US were to adopt the German methodology (ap...If the US were to adopt the German methodology (apples to apples), the Q2 GDP drop would be 19,486.5 from a Q1 level of 21,561.1 for a GDP drop of 9.62%<br /><br />"Hire and fire culture" had nothing to do with it. Larwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-65238544912427684702020-09-12T02:44:51.482+02:002020-09-12T02:44:51.482+02:00Yes, that's what I mean by annualized. BEA ext...Yes, that's what I mean by annualized. BEA extrapolates a quarter into a year of identical quarters to generate the annualized figure of 31.7%. If you go to the tables (Tables Only) and find Table 3 (Gross Domestic Product: level and Change from Preceding Period) you'll see the actual data.<br /> GDP in Q2 20 was 19,486.5 billion (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates). For Q2 19, it was 21,329.9 (seasonally adjusted at annual rates). 19,486.5/21,329.9=91.36% implying an 8.64% drop. (All based off Table 3).<br /><br />Germany just does quarters, the US annualizes it.Larwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-80974209190811456392020-09-11T15:13:42.061+02:002020-09-11T15:13:42.061+02:00You do understand your link mentions the 32.9% fig...You do understand your link mentions the 32.9% figure as well? They write it was 31.7%, with correction of 1.2% from previous reporting. Thus the 32.9% figure was presumably official at the time of the image creation.<br />I did not find your 8.6% figure at your link, and it appears to be wholly incompatible with the 31.7% figure.<br /><br />You need to prove that at least one other figure in the image follows a different definition to support an "apples and oranges" complaint.<br />The 9.7% figure for Germany is an official figure relative to the previous quarter (I/2020, NOT II/2019):<br />https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2020/08/PD20_323_811.html<br /><br />The drop wasn't as extreme because of different policies. Kurzarbeitergeld instead of hire&fire culture made an important difference, but there were many other important differences in long-standing policies and policy reactions.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-66072166005735716542020-09-11T12:18:49.589+02:002020-09-11T12:18:49.589+02:00The Q2 economic growth chart is apples to oranges....The Q2 economic growth chart is apples to oranges. GDP in the US is measured quarterly but "annualized". Compared to Q2 2019, the US drop is 8.6%. <br /><br />https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,advance%E2%80%9D%20estimate%20released%20in%20July. Larwit1512https://www.blogger.com/profile/09760060181275619000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-70486493428087032202020-09-07T23:35:18.530+02:002020-09-07T23:35:18.530+02:00By the way: Macgregor can speak german fluently. By the way: Macgregor can speak german fluently. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-45229224264425304022020-09-07T14:35:50.056+02:002020-09-07T14:35:50.056+02:00Most popular media products on science are infotai...Most popular media products on science are infotainment, and the entertainment part creeps upwards to 100%. The Americans/Anglophone world are/is a lot more 'advanced' on this. Documentaries made in the U.S. tend to be extremely short on words and extremely long on dramatic pauses and dramatic music.<br />This https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BVJlrV2vFE is an example of the contrast that's possible between information and American-style infotainment.<br /><br />The infotainment wave presents science as a lot less serious, a lot less about boring calculations (or in the case above, checklists). It gives the audience the feeling of understanding something of which they didn't see more than an advertisement actually.<br /><br />I believe that the esoteric stuff, quackery and even conspiracy theories are rooted in the people's desire to be smarter than they are. Effort and intelligence are required to be smart, and hardly anyone still wants to put in the effort.<br /><br />(I spent more than a decade reading about military history and historical military tech plus almost another decade trying to get up to speed on post-WW2 military tech before I began blogging here. That's still almost entirely autodidactic, but it's a lot more effort than a few weeks or months of reading about crystals or vaccines on weird websites.)<br /><br />The desire to be smarter than you are and the readiness to adopt simplistic explanations may be linked to the erosion of middle class biographies and drift towards less-achieving precarious worker/unemployed biographies. That's merely a suspicion of mine and I cannot provide a clear causality link yet. It's not my job, anyway - some sociologists get paid for researching stuff like this.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-55675931358036593102020-09-07T11:13:41.978+02:002020-09-07T11:13:41.978+02:00*"theories"*"theories"ErGalimbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-54132123552144797272020-09-07T11:12:58.391+02:002020-09-07T11:12:58.391+02:00I'm all for exposing the liars to the fiery su...I'm all for exposing the liars to the fiery sun of facts and public disapprobation. Unfortunately, the vaccine quacks are part of a general tendency towards being accepting of quackery which has become markedly more evident. Based even on the data you present above, I would argue we are approaching a critical mass of dis-informed morons who willingly swallow this & other stuff. How is it possible to prove something if the target audience has no reliable factual context, i.e. has no clue about geography, basic history, and at least some actual science? <br />How can we communicate with people with whom we don't share not just a worldview, but even once-normal standards of logic & reasoning, who are completely seduced by mysticism, symbolism, and conspiracy theoris? <br /><br />For instance, I am constantly annoyed by bowdlerised science - most "science communication" having degenerated into low-IQ marketing scams "e.g. AI will solve all our problems etc, get into your 5G software-controlled car today". It's been a much longer process to get us here than 5 years, and digging ourselves out will require something more than calls to punish deviations from common sense. ErGalimbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-35071337778686593182020-09-06T23:19:58.851+02:002020-09-06T23:19:58.851+02:00Turret SPHs can be adapted for the heavy AAA role ...Turret SPHs can be adapted for the heavy AAA role with standard HE shells and normal proximity fuzes. It wouldn't be ideal, but effective enough against many targets. There is no need for a gold-plated projectile. There's no need for the Norwegian ramjet shell, either. Leonardo's 155 mm long range shell should be considered the maximum gold-plating tolerable and it should be used against high value targets like battlefield air defences and HQs only.<br /><br />Much of the U.S.Army's artillery is towed and has a poor traverse and no automated gunlaying. Those howitzers would be near-useless for an AAA mission.<br />The U.S.Army REALLY needs to stop toying around in its usual ways and get a proper SPH artillery for all brigades to be combat-ready against a 1st or 2nd rate army.<br />They're now toying around with towed ultra-long barrel howitzers instead of giving up on the M777 nonsense altogether.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-39926891513688864922020-09-06T21:08:38.575+02:002020-09-06T21:08:38.575+02:00Talking about interesting links -thought you might...Talking about interesting links -thought you might find this interesting RE: your combined SPH/AAA idea:<br /><br />https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/06/sci-fi-awesome-a-us-army-howitzer-just-shot-down-a-cruise-missile/Gareth Jonesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-82136578605769833552020-09-05T22:19:57.108+02:002020-09-05T22:19:57.108+02:00An easy way would be to require healing profession...An easy way would be to require healing professions to have an insurance that pays in case of very much below-average treatment success.<br />Those who use healing crystals and stuff would not be able to afford the insurance premiums.<br /><br />The supreme court might rule against it in an analogy to the outlawing of strangling taxation, though. It's illegal to tax something out of existence because supreme court ruled that the legislative has to outlaw it right away if it wants something gone.<br /><br />The legal argument in the case of homeopathy et cetera could be that the scheme lets the market determine the failures, so it's not the legislative picking the losers directly.<br /><br />Anyway, nothing will be done with reform-nothing conservatives in power and greens (who don't suppress their pro-homeopathy faction) poised to join the next coalition.S Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03359796414832859686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-386077914312449748.post-59359564913814586232020-09-05T21:10:37.878+02:002020-09-05T21:10:37.878+02:00I see the health-pseudoscience problem in Germany ...I see the health-pseudoscience problem in Germany connected to the profession of "Heilpraktiker" with their globuli and healing crystals. They get paid through government health insurance and have tailor made laws for their medicine, hiding behind a law that also protects traditional phytomedicine that has verifiability. I think it will be difficult to push back against this movement, because our education fails in empowering people to competently understand and influence their environment. Pseudoscientific hogwash delivers instant "competence". I see a losing fight, but maybe you have an idea. KRThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10725091310284220350noreply@blogger.com