2010/09/13

Glorified cannibals

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Much has been written about how certain U.S. special forces moved away from training foreign forces towards "direct action" during the last two decades. This trend was accelerated since 2003 in part because the training requirements in Iraq and Afghanistan could not be stemmed even by the badly inflated USSOCOM, but required training by conventional combat troops as well. The extreme casualty avoidance of the same period led to a preference for highly trained special forces for deliberate raids.

The old paradigm is best displayed by the old assertion that if you send a special forces squad into the hills, you'd have an indigenous militia army there in a few months.

The "direct action" paradigm is best illustrated by the Delta Force's involvement in Somalia in the early 90's.

The trends look a bit different in other nations, but many Western nations have some sort of much-enlarged "direct action" special forces establishment today. Germany kept its special forces very small with exaggerated entry requirements, so the following text is not really about the Bundeswehr.


The problem with these special forces organizations is one that has already been complained about many times (1), but the complaint doesn't seem to have much effect: The special forces leech quality personnel from the infantry, grow in numbers way beyond what's necessary for real "special" missions and in the end the SF replace the infantry in many challenging missions. The infantry branch deteriorates, loses the trust of superiors in its competence and its own confidence.

The leeching effect on infantry personnel is especially problematic because it concerns only the best personnel. This loss can indeed cripple the regular infantry because this best fifth of its personnel is vital for infantry effectiveness in battle.


If you left them alone then some ten percent of the soldiers were the ones who actually took the initiative, moved, fired their rifles, threw hand grenades, and so on. The other 90% would defend themselves if they had to, but would not do the other things unless an officer or a sergeant directly ordered them to do it, in which case they usually would do it. I learned that you couldn't depend on them doing things simply because there was a plan to do it, or because of some generalized order to do it, and this included the junior officers. You had to say, ""do this," "do that," "now fire here," and "now move there." You would always end up with a good sergeant or a good officer and three or four men doing all of the work. Unfortunately, the rest contributed to the casualties.... I came away absolutely impressed with the fact that the average man, like nine out of ten, or eight out of ten, does not have an instinct for the battlefield, doesn't relish it, and will not act independently except under direct orders....

It's absolutely essential to mix great personnel with average personnel in order to form powerful line-of-sight combat units. This applies to infantry as well as armour.

The general infantry performance of many nations wasn't stellar in Afghanistan, which is largely an infantry war. Many raids and other normal infantry actions were reserved for special forces while infantry was often easily pinned down and calling in fire support.

The glorification of special forces and their inflation should be reversed. Infantry should be capable of most jobs assigned to special forces today. Even quickly-trained World War infantry was capable of difficult infiltrations and exfiltrations, reconnaissance, night combat without night sights and GPS, river crossings under fire and many other difficult missions. Regular infantry - even quickly trained conscript forces led by well-trained superiors - can do most of today's "special forces" jobs; the "direct action" thing. They won't do it as quickly, as neatly - but they can do it a hundred times as often per month.

- - - - -

The path to special forces is a path to the icing of the cake without the cake. It's a path to tiny quality forces with a disregarded, largely ineffective conventional force.

We should not focus on tiny SF missions, but on the ability to defeat conventional opposition, for that is the only kind of opposition that could really dare to invade us (wars of necessity) while we will face "insurgents" only if we invade other places (wars of choice). This requires forces which pay attention to quality AND quantity, not only quality. It's a long-known fact that peacetime armies focus on quality in peacetime, but rally towards the necessary quantity at the expense of some quality in wartime. A focus on quality alone is no preparation for (against) war, but a primitive and typical peacetime mistake.

It's about time to reform the infantry in many if not all Western armies. The Special Forces establishments can provide the necessary manpower for this reform.

S O

(1): One example is the Article "We Were Soldiers Once... - The Decline of the Royal Australian Infantry Corps?" in the Autumn 2008 issue of the Australian Army Journal.

edit: I just looked at this published blog post (it appeared on a set time) and the beginning looks a bit awkward. "Glorified cannibals" directly followed by "U.S. special forces" is not the intended link. I wrote "glorified" because of the SF-related hype of the last two decades (which was most likely pushed by B-movies and video games) and I wrote "cannibals" because I had all Western special forces in mind which draw selectively many of the best soldiers from normal combat units.
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2010/09/12

Do opponents misunderstand each other in Afghanistan?

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The Vietnam War (final chapter) was a great tragedy in part because the Washington and Hanoi misunderstood each other badly.
Washington didn't get that Hanoi was more nationalistic than communist and that they were indeed  believing to fight an anti-colonialist war [edit: and in the 60's/70's rather a war of national unification].
Hanoi on the other hand didn't get much right either, especially not that Washington wouldn't have been particularly interested in that rice pond if there wasn't this Communism and Domino theory thing.


The Afghans certainly don't misunderstand each other to any problematic extent, but what about the West and the Taliban (+ all those other armed violence opposition groups)?

Even if intelligence services, military leaderships and governments got it right this time - what about the general populations in the involved Western nations?

I've got my doubts, not the least because there's still a noticeable minority believing even in the completely fictitious 9/11-Saddam link, and many people in the West don't seem to discern between Taliban and AQ at all (which, in a complicated way, isn't completely off, but in another way it's wrong).

It should raise more than an eyebrow if war is being waged without full confidence in the understanding of each other's intent.


The "know your enemy" quote of Sun Tzu would now allow for a stylish finish of this post if I hadn't already pointed out the poor utility of Sun Tzu quotes. This kind of thing always comes back to hurt you...

S O
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2010/09/09

Provocateurs and their meme

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A Mrs. Steinbach, representative of German refugees, managed to provoke some outrage by mentioning that Poland had mobilised in 1939 before Germany did so.


There's a pattern in use by agent provocateurs that's really simple: They use a correct fact, omit the context and have a predictable misleading effect on the audience. The politically correct outrage is expected, but the agent provocateur can defend himself/herself by pointing at the factual correctness.
We've had more than enough of this in the last weeks over here.

Yes, Poland did mobilize early - but that's the least meaningful and most misleading detail of the whole topic. It's either stupid or deliberate when someone picks this detail for a discussion.
Poland's list of inter-war year sins was huge (easily in the top ten of worst or most evil states of the period). It's enticing to write about it, but that simply doesn't belong into this blog.

(edit: New reports assert that Steinbach referred to a fictious March 1933 mobilization of Poland, which is obvious nonsense. I think either the reports or Steinbach mixed up '33 and '39.)


Mrs. Steinbach is in my opinion either stupid, ill-informed or deliberately provoking.

It's sad, but we will predictably direct much more public attention on provocations in the future - attention that could be directed at real problems instead.

Another problem is the political correctness outrage. It's harmful to civil society, for it's ill-aimed. The correctness of the stated fact should not be questioned, and the assertion that she's "außerhalb des demokratischen Konsenses in Deutschland" (outside of the democratic consensus in Germany) because she mentioned a true fact (which most likely most in the audience were not aware of) is highly questionable.

We should really develop a political culture that can live with unpleasant truths well enough to not be offended by them. At the same time this political culture should sanction agent provocateurs and not allow them to become quickly rehabilitated and spew B.S. again as happened in the case of (politically very differently oriented) Friedmann.


Good policy required a reality-based discussion of topics, and decisions based in reality. Feel-good political correctness is often a deviation from reality; a distortion of the political discussion that should be avoided.


Sven Ortmann
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2010/09/08

Thanks to the British...

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... for a hilarious movie on terrorists.



Available on DVD, it didn't make it into German cinemas.

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A market's failure to anticipate a crisis.

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This chart shows the development of Greek 10 year bonds.


It proves that those who actually bought these bonds in the marketplace were failing to anticipate the crisis; they bought the bonds without demanding an appropriate risk premium. There was no substantial risk premium in these trades until immediately before the Greek debt crisis this year.
The level of 2002-2009 is comparable to low-risk investments' rates.

Marketplaces - crowd intelligence - are rumoured to be better at anticipation than lonely government officials.


What does this tell us about the ability to predict conventional war? Not much, but it leaves more than just a trace of discomfort. After all, some NATO and government officials speak of an early warning period of six years before a major conflict that would require mobilization.

The early warning period may indeed be six years. It was decades in the case of Greece. 
Would this early warning period be used well or would security policy fail to exploit it and be surprised just like the professional bond investors?


Sven Ortmann
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Active Bundeswehr officers: Cut the chieftains!

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Shorter active troops officers:
 
'Cut the division HQs, cut the branch generals' staffs, cut commands,
shorten procedures, wake up the procurement personnel':



There's one thing in the article where I disagree with it: The divisions of the Bundeswehr's Heer were NEVER necessary, not even in the Cold War.

Let me explain: Late in WW2 the Wehrmacht's Heer discovered that mobile forces better be easily led - no bigger than brigade size. The few official and promising TO&E experiments with brigades were one argument, the fact that the motorised divisions of that time were rarely at more than half strength and proved the advantages of this size is another.

During the early 50's the veteran officers planned for the new army and consulted with such famous WW2 veterans as v.Manstein and Guderian. The conclusion was simple: The divisional structure is pointless for an all-motorised army. A brigade-based structure is superior.

Sadly, politics proceeded in parallel and there was no opportunity to do what was considered the right thing to do.
The conservative-liberal Adenauer government had a Western integration & reconciliation grand strategy and offered an army for bolstering the defence of Western Europe in exchange for foreign political progress. At some time they promised "12 Divisionen" (out of a total of 26 Western divisions in Central Europe), and the Bundeswehr had to meet this even though it didn't really want any army divisions. The Heer actually raised 12 divisions on paper, but the 12th was not really at normal strength and the Div HQs were little more than a deadweight layer of command in what was actually a brigade-based army.
This brigade model actually influenced many NATO armies during the 60's and 70's (you won't read this often in Pentomic- and ROAD-focused U.S. literature, of course)

The Divisional HQ level of command was unnecessary deadweight from the beginning, even and especially during the Cold War!

Some recent rumours about a possible deletion of some other level of command than the divisional level didn't trigger a blog post here because I assumed that the idea was so obviously stupid that it would go away anyway. I had second thoughts. There's only a about 0.000000000000001% chance that this might help to prevent such a stupid move, of course.
S O
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2010/09/05

About tanks, and why they're a necessity in modern ground forces

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I intended to write about this topic (What's a tank good for, and does its end near?) for a while. A reply written by me on a forum turned out to be so long and exhaustive that it's really what I had planned for the blog. Lazy as I am, I'll copy it.

[...] however my confusion remains. What is/ where is the utility and value of the MBT?

The Main Battle Tank is a vehicle that was developed for intentional use in line-of-sight combat. Its crew is capable of justifying the investment into the tank team and the hardware by exploiting the degree of protection offered by the tank for the critical mass of survivability on the battlefield.

This critical mass does not include invulnerability, but rather vastly reduced or entirely negated effectiveness of most threat weapons. The tank is still vulnerable to few threat weapons - crew training and tank tactics are required to counter these threats for additional survivability on the mission.

The high survivability in comparison to "light" forces (especially on open ground) in combination with the internal combustion engine's power offer a high mobility (with a heavyweight weaponry and ammunition) on the battlefield.

This high practical mobility in face of many threats can be exploited by large unit and formation tactics to great effect.
Tanks can also be used with assault gun tactics; in this case they serve on the offence as fire support platforms with weapons and ammunitions heavier than practical for dismounted troops.

The best targets for a tank are those which justify the expenditure of scarce ammunition and the risk involved. Hostile main battle tanks are sometimes in this category, sometimes not. It depends on the other forces' ability to deal with them (does your army have enough effective threats against hostile tanks?).


(This ability was in doubt since 1940. Anti-tank guns were largely immobile, dedicated tank destroyers/Jagdpanzer were a kind of tank themselves, infantry and engineer anti-tank munitions were very rarely able to withstand concentrated breakthrough attempts.
The problem continued during the Cold War when shaped charge-based weapons were able to penetrate tanks mostly with unpredictable effect. Their employment either required vicinity (and weighed down the dismounted troops) or depended on missile guidances and long flight times - both offering countermeasure opportunities to the enemy.
In short; there was little trust in the non-tank-based anti-tank capabilities.)
 
[End of forum reply]


Positions such as "it's necessary for Blitzkrieg" or "it's the best anti-tank weapon" fall short of really explaining the military-technical phenomenon of the tank. Armoured combat vehicles (not necessarily only main battle tanks) fill a niche for which there's no satisfactory substitute. That's why they don't go away.
Some tank designs can prove to be unsatisfactory - especially if they don't reach the critical mass of protection. This explains the demise of the light tank since WW2. Other tanks prove unsatisfactory because they aren't efficient enough or don't fit into the operational doctrine any more (such as short-legged heavy tanks as the T-10).
Finally, there's the main battle tank which actually evolved into a very mobile heavy tank during the 70's when the Leopard 2 was developed.

Quote "Jane's Weapon Systems 1976":
Previously, when a tank had better armour the performance and mobility declined; in designing the Leopard 2 the Germans have reversed this trend, the end result being a superior vehicle.
Leopard 2A4, externally similar to the early Leopard 2 as introduced in '79.

So the tank is here to stay (although in much-reduced quantity as it seems). Countermeasures against it provoke counter-countermeasures. This seems to be unavoidable because modern armies need to fill the armoured combat vehicle's niche and there's simply no satisfactory substitute.
Tanks are dying and becoming obsolete all the time - but there will always appear some (new models or upgrades) that are not obsolete (yet).
 
S O
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2010/09/04

Infantry skill horror photo

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(First of all: This is not meant nation-specific.)

This is the infantry skill horror photo of the month:


It's the classic "spray and pray over an obstacle" firing stance, guaranteeing a waste of ammunition.There's no visible laser beam and little hope that he's just illuminating something.
No matter what exactly he does; he seems to believe that hostiles are within rang of his M4 carbine (effective to 150-300 m depending on your expectation of effect on target) and exposes himself very much to hostile fire. He's certainly not using his carbine for aimed fire.

It's even worse:
This disastrous photo made it into the public as an official army photo!

As seen through a night-vision device, U.S. Army Sgt. Joseph P. Khamvongsa returns fire against an insurgent attack on Combat Outpost Badel, Afghanistan, Aug. 25. 2010. Khamvongsa, a forward observer, is assigned to Company B, 2nd Battalion, 327th Infantry Regiment. U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Gary A. Witte
source, hat tip to Ken White

It's even a NCO, part of the NCO corps that's supposed to keep the individual and small unit skill level of the army high.

For comparison:
Third World untrained ragtag militia fighters, the laughing-stock of infantry-interested internet users.





I wrote about less extreme failures in a longer post "How to get yourself killed in combat against competent enemies" last year.


Let's hope that this soldier is a lone exception, along with the equally clueless photographer.


Sven Ortmann
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2010/09/02

Defending the indefensible: a how-to guide

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I'm apparently still in the mod to dump more or less old articles here (only good ones, of course!).

By Stephen M. Walt
Foreign Policy Blog
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2010/09/01

Economist article: "Defence spending in a time of austerity"

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Yet another noteworthy article, this time a recent one:

"Defence spending in a time of austerity
The chronic problem of exorbitantly expensive weapons is becoming acute"

(The F-35 may still appear to stay below the trend,
but we'll see how that turns out in the next years.)
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