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I had a summary of Defence & Freedom (my) theses back in (and up to) 2014:
/2014/05/blog-defence-and-freedom-theses.html
Let's use that to see how good or bad that list looks today.
2007 looks fine to me, save for the fortifications thing. Field fortifications wouldn't work against Westerners, but Russians are incapable enough that they work against them.
2008 I suppose opinions vary about the counter-piracy thing.
2009 I suppose my take on IFVs is still an outlier, despite the failures of BMPs in Ukraine.
2010 looks fine.
2011 The low force density thing is very debatable in light of how the Russo-Ukraine War went down, though I was rather thinking of a different scenario.
2012 The remarks on deconfliction, navies, army aviation and air force combat aviation are still outlier opinions.
2013 I know the opinion on submarines is still an outlier.
2014 They actually began getting ACV six years later, albeit I'll say those are underwhelming.
So 57 theses, only three of them were kinda (though not clearly) refuted by events and six are still very much outlier opinions (even though somewhat supported by events, but events did not change majority opinions).
I actually expected the list to have fared worse.
Maybe I should write a bit about the many "I told you so" theses.
S O
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