Some articles

I've got some article recommendations for you...

Tokyo's governor is probably no expert, but maybe there's more as the article claims...
East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Pentagon board says cuts essential
and real politics:
Pentagon Wants $581 Billion From Obama – War Costs Not Included

Minimum deterrence

Documents linking Iran to nuclear weapons push may have been fabricated

War Nerd: Congo Warrior Nkunda Is Nkool
with background:
France's shame?

"Soldier of Tomorrow"

A German article on domestic spying by our soon-to-be-FBI-equivalent:
Notstandsgesetze 2.0

Another German article, this time about the (disclosed) state of the art of hard-kill AFV defences (really impressive stuff):
Abstandsaktive Hardkill-Schutzsysteme

Tires that laugh at bullets

. OK, I admit - this topic was too long on my "to do" list. Michelin's Tweel technology of wheels with flexible rubber cushioning instead of (pressurized) air cushioning was published few years ago and one of my first thoughts was about the usefulness for military applications. 

  The concept has now been transferred to military technology:  See the Military tech blog post about this product. (The honeycomb still needs to be covered to keep dirt and mud out - nobody wants mega-heavy wheels!) This technology might be suitable for military needs and limit wheel vulnerability to incendiary and blast effects - no more trouble with fragments, bullets and sharp objects on the ground. There's of course no use of CTIS possible with such wheels - that should reduce the complexity and price of wheeled military vehicles. The vulnerability of conventional tires to bullets and fragments was always a problem - and obviously so since other vehicle components were hardened. Tires are a very heavy, bulky supply and the need to replace many tires (if for example partisans like to snipe at these wheels) can grow to a significant portion of the overall supply demand. Simple Tweels with some fire-retarding additives might become a really, really great thing for armies.

 

 S O 

 

2008-11-20 edit: (Almost) as usual, the Germans already invented it (well, something really similar) in one of their notorious scarcity phases (a.k.a. World Wars) when creativity had to compensate for a lack of raw material supply: "federnde Räder" (~"cushioning wheels") were used in World War I (1915 onwards) to replace tires (the natural rubber supply from overseas was almost entirely cut off) for cars, while trucks had to use 19th century wood/iron wheels. 

 

Immigrants

There was a time (actually, pre-9/11) when not only nukes, oil/gas and terrorism were in the focus of national security policy debates, but also migration pressure (and fresh water supply).

These topics haven't lost their relevance, but were overshadowed by the more en vogue topics. Fresh water and migrants don't seem to be existential problems for Western nations (except -surprise- Israel), after all.

Migration pressure (most acute Latin America to USA and Africa to Europe) is based on the 'magnetic' attraction that rich countries have on the lower middle classes of poor countries (really poor people usually cannot afford the travel).

This attraction can be reduced by some information campaigns and the poverty can be reduced with some successful forms of (mostly rural) development aid, but ultimately these measures cannot stem the tide.
That's relevant for both internal and to some degree also for external security of the target nations and even relevant for their economy (especially the low-level employment market).

A strategic response to reduce the relative attractiveness and to divert more of the migration movements might be to create nodes of growth close to the origin countries.
The urban areas of these countries already attract most rural migrants - it should be possible to create additional special economic areas that attract the migrants - think of many small Hong Kongs and Singapores along the African coastline.

It's highly unlikely that the European states will invest their attention/money into a strategic response to a creeping problem like intercontinental migration, though. Well, I don't expect it until terrorists and oil lose their attraction - and they won't do so for another at least three years in my opinion.

S O

Next decade: Supersonic business jets

There are some supersonic business jets in the pipeline, and I expect at least one project to reach production status in the next decade.
This has some relevance for the realm of military affairs, just like traditional and ultra-long range business jets have.

The affordable and fast business jets are a classic platform for signals intelligence (Sigint). Such aircraft have been used since decades for electronic sniffing; they recorded electromagnetic emissions of (potential) opponents to learn about the others' radio/radar technologies and/or communications. Large aircraft like RC-135 are usually not necessary for this and almost every state with an electronics industry with military products has its own small or large Sigint aircraft fleet.

Such passive means of intelligence gathering aren't the only ones in this context, though. Aerial ground surveillance radars can be used on such small aircraft as well. The most well-known such aircraft is today the E-8 JSTARS, but the much older Mohawk and the HORIZON system show that such a large platform is unnecessary. The UK's Royal Air Force actually mounts its new ASTOR system on a ultra-long range business jet (Raytheon Sentinel system).

Airborne Early Warning & Control systems can be based on business jet-sized platforms as well, as demonstrated by carrier-borne AEW systems, the Swedish Erieye radar that's usually being mounted on very small airliners and the very modern Israeli Eitam (CAEW) system.

What could supersonic cruise - especially supercruise - add to these applications?

Well, it's in my opinion all about survivability. Such systems (especially the AEW&C systems that are important assets in air warfare) are among the highest priority targets in a conventional war. An inferior air force cannot really hope to destroy such planes in sufficient quantity with normal fighters, but agents/commandos that raid the airfields, dedicated very long-range air-to-air missiles and very long range surface-to-air missiles threaten clumsy subsonic aircraft like RC-135, E-8 and E-3. The range of such missiles is about the same as the range of the aerial radars, which means that such aircraft might be pushed back and maybe couldn't sense deep into 'enemy' terrain.

A supersonic aircraft is a much more challenging target - and the smaller size (with possibly a bit RCS reduction) lends itself well to successful jamming of tiny active radars in missile heads.

Survivability is the reason why supercruise business jets might become the basis for the next generation of SigInt, AEW and radar ground surveillance radar aircraft.
I don't expect this to happen soon, though. The procurement cycle might require a new generation of such systems only in twenty or more years because most air forces that might accept small aircraft as platforms (this seems to exclude the USAF) have equipped themselves with such planes quite recently.

S O

Reminder: It's too easy to underestimate

The photo shows an Iraqi Type 69 tanks after capture by the USMC in 1991.

Easily visible is the now well-known slat armor applied to turret rear and sides, almost immunizing these surfaces against shaped charge munitions.

Slat armor is both K.I.S.S. and extremely unsexy - it was occasionally used since at least the 1960's (as secret frontal protection for the Swedish "S-tank", for example), but had its breakthrough only few years ahead when it was understood as excellent protection for lightly armored vehicles against the very old RPG-7 anti-tank weapons.

The 'Western' approach to armor was primarily the compound armor ("Chobham" armor and similar), Israel and the Warsaw Pact additionally embraced ERA (reactive armor) on large scale - and earlier.

This slat armor anecdote from 1991 serves two purposes;
First, it reminds us that something may be highly efficient, but not 'sexy' (it's good to remember the disastrous consequences that the 'spit and polish school' had in the Royal Navy about a hundred ears ago).
Second, it reminds us that big budget high-tech armies have no monopoly on great tools/weapons; sometimes, even third rate armies and despised low-tech systems have 'diamond' components.

S O

edit: I see the irony of posting about underestimating others directly after a harsh critique on an operation that has yet to take place. Feel free to falsify my previous post, I'd love to be wrong on that one.

edit 2009-03-01:
I found another example, slat armor on a BTR-70 during the Afghanistan War (the Soviet episode):

"Mission Atalanta" or: How to demonstrate incompetence

There are some ragtag modern pirates in our world. Most of the time they're on land, of course. No pretty sailing ships and black powder guns - just small and nimble motor boats and some 1960's infantry weapons. They don't sail the high seas, but annoy (or entertain) news consumers with quite daring attacks on ships in front of Somalia and in the Strait of Malacca.

The Somali breed has annoyed some governments too much too quickly.
They're pissed off and want to send warships to - well, to do something about it.
The EU calls that "Mission Atalanta" - about ten ships were said to be included in this.
That's an outrageous embarrassment - I'll elaborate on that later.

The German participation is even more embarrassing. The legal foundation for pirate hunts is surprisingly disputed in Germany. It's apparently unclear what to do with prisoners if any were taken (I doubt that).

Finally, there will be one frigate with anti-terror mission at the coast of Somalia (which collected valuable intel on the pirates in the past) and another one exclusively for anti-pirate patrol.
I'll better not go into any detail about the anti-terror frigate mission, that would be too much railing in one post.

Back to the anti-pirate patrol: It's a waste of time.
The politicians seem to go the most obvious yet completely pointless path. That's a demonstration of incompetence.
A successful hunt for pirates isn't the same as a patrol. Instead, you need to go to their bases. To patrol the seas just wastes time.
The EU has displayed a basic knowledge of Greek mythology by calling the Mission "Atalanta" (albeit it's not connected to the mission in any way). Instead they should better have known a minimum about military history - and call a different, really effective mission "Mission Pompey".
Pompey was not only a Roman politician and general of Caesar's time, but also likely the most successful pirate hunter of all time.

Superficial history books for pupils tell about how he fought the pirates at sea and defeated them. Good history books tell about how ships were necessary to move ground troops quickly - and how he eradicated the pirate's bases and (obviously) defeated them morally and by superior mass, coordination and high mobility.
He could have patrolled the seas for years without decisive success - the assault on the bases (often deserted in advance due to broken will) was the decisive element. Finally, he used an amnesty.

The EU wouldn't need to send any warships if it had a clue. A simple freighter, some inflatable boats, a medium transport plane and a fighter bomber in Djibouti and a company of parachute-qualified infantry is all that's necessary. I could plan and organize an effective raid (if intel was available to me) with the resources of a poor Third World country.
The key for a minimum intensity solution is to raid the base/village's coastline at night, destroy the tools (boats and engines) with explosives, use some threatening leaflets, exfiltrate with boats to the ship and demonstrate power (bombs impacting around the village at an announced time as a warning).

Well, some captives held by the pirates complicate the affair, but those are (AFAIK) mostly not Europeans and all you need to do is make clear that the village will be eradicated without further warning by bombs if piracy continues or captives weren't freed.
Finally, it may end in dead captives - and a village that was destroyed (including population). I would bet that this would end piracy and make lots of minor conflicts much easier for us for at least two decades.

Politicians are of course not ready to order such actions (anymore), but are unable to do nothing as well - that's why they launched a most likely wasteful mission with temporary success designed to save face - at the taxpayer's expense.
I bet the mass media won't understand the futility of patrols till that's too old news to tell a story about this.

S O

edit 2008-11-20: Thanks to 'DemolitionMan' for the link:

"Dmitry Rogozin said the view of Russian experts was that naval action alone, even involving a large fleet of a powerful nation, would not be enough to defeat the pirates, given Somalia's geo-strategic position."

edit 2016:
Piracy off Somalia was largely subdued only years after I wrote this blog post.
It could flare up again any time, though.

90 years ago: End of the Great War

World War I (then known as "The Great War") ended 90 years ago, on 11 November 1918. The last veterans died peacefully in the past few years.

90 years ago a war finally came to an end that had almost shattered the fabric of Europe; culture, states, economy, science, population. The terrible 1918 flu pandemic killed even more people till 1920, but didn't have such lasting impact.

Europe had changed forever in World War I.
The British Empire was ruined.
Bolshevism had conquered the remains of the broken up Russian Tzar empire.
Austria-Hungary, a power with hundreds of years of history and important force for order in South-East Europe, had gone.
The Ottoman Empire had gone.
France had experienced severe destruction and a disproportionate loss of life.
The young nation Italy had experienced a huge loss of life and had its weak economy strained beyond its limits.
The young nation Germany had experienced huge loss of life, was ruined economically and it was the only major surviving losing power. It got all the blame - and a unhealthy dosage of humiliation by France and Poland. It barely kept the radical left from permanent power, instead falling prey to the radical right after two more major crisis (hyper inflation and great depression).

The war had left more scars than that, though. The culture had changed - beyond culture fashions like clothes. Many Europeans came to see war as a terribly destructive and lethal event for little or no gain. War wasn't like in the old times - coloured soldier marching to distant battlefields. War had become once again like the Thirty Years War - utterly destructive, uncivilized, ruining, maiming, destroying everything that generations had worked for. This became part of the national heritage - a certain commemoration of war. Europe offered everyone a demonstration of war that could help others to learn about the true nature of war.

The lesson has faded a bit over generations - despite being refreshed by the even more destructive Word War II. The price that Europe had paid for the insight was excessive - and it's even more outrageous that other nations apparently didn't learn the same lesson yet. Europe's large nations are different from other nations - for a reason.
That's not cowardice of flimsiness; it's wisdom. Expensive and valuable wisdom.
Let's not forget the lesson, or else two generations of our ancestors would have suffered completely in vain.

Sven Ortmann

Sound supressors and decoys

Infantry has the best chance for survival if it succeeds in keeping its location secret. That's why camouflage, concealment and deception are so important.

It's important to initiate a firefight from an advantageous position and with the advantage of surprise. It's important as well to keep this uncertainty as long as possible to reduce effective counter-fire.
To fire from unsuspected directions (flank or rear) is a typical trick of the trade, but the actual reduction of firing signatures and use of decoys could achieve even more.
The use of decoys (that mimic the acoustic and visible firing signature of actual assault rifles and machine guns - basically LED lights and dedicated firecrackers) would be difficult to prepare, but the reduction of firing signatures is actually quite simple at least for assault rifles.

Sound suppressors are easier to use, though - they need no special consideration in combat.

All-metal sound suppressors can be built to
- eliminate muzzle flash
- reduce the acoustic signature forward slightly
- reduce the acoustic signature backward and to the sides significantly
- minimize movements of foliage, grass, sand & dust around the muzzle
- reduction in recoil by more than 20% (muzzle brake effect)
- slight improvement of dispersion



the disadvantages would be
- a little bit more weapon length (about 3-5 cm)
- center of gravity of the weapon moved forward
- a little bit more weight (less than 400 g)
- different external ballistics than without sound suppressor (impact point shifted by less than four MOA)
- little bit more cost (less than 100 € if procured in large quantity)
- sound suppressor would need to be removed/replaced to reduce thermal signature
- the rifle becomes unsuitable for rifle grenades, blank and frangible bullets if the suppressor is attached
- the sound suppressor diameter might interfere with iron sights that are very close to the barrel (like on the old G3)
- sound suppressors with many baffles need to be installed precisely

Such suppressors withstand rough use and quick fire quite well.

The elimination of the muzzle flash is the key - it helps to keep the location of the shooter unknown for precious seconds and adds to the enemy's confusion. The morale effect of few seconds more confusion during an ambush can be decisive - but it cannot be understood with exercises and operational research.

Add a well-emplaced machine gun with periscope sight that doesn't expose the machine gunner much and you've got the equipment to maximize the survivability of the infantry in the defense.

The survivability of infantry during a movement to contact or even an assault will always be an even greater problem. This requires much more training, creativity and discipline than tools.
There is potential for tool improvement for the benefit of the infantry, though. Much less bulky, less heavy, less expensive and less obvious tools than level IV ballistic vests are still awaiting their exploitation.

Sven Ortmann

Schweres Wurfgerät

Trotz starker Artillerie und verstärkter Granatwerferaustattung sollte man nicht auf ein schweres Wurfgerät verzichten. Die vom deutschen schweren Wurfgerät erreichte Höchstschussweite von 2200m muß noch gesteigert werden. Zur Bekämpfung von Flächenzielen gibt es für Panzergrenadiere keine bessere Waffe. Ein zusammengefaßter Feuerschlag von Napalm- oder auch "nur" Brisanz- oder Flammöl-Wurfgranaten hat in Angriff und Abwehr eine große Wirkung.

Eike Middeldorf, German Army General Staff expert on tactical lessons learned 1944/45, in a book for the young Bundeswehr ("Taktik im Russlandfeldzug", 1956)

translation:

You should not dispense with heavy projectiles despite strong artillery and reinforced equipment with mortars. The maximum range of the German heavy projectiles of 2,200m needs to be increased. There's no better weapon for the mechanised infantry against area targets. A concerted strike of napalm or even "only" HE or fire oil heavy projectiles has a great effect both in attack and defense.

Two books of Eike Middeldorf (this and "Handbuch der Taktik" of 1957) are diamonds of military literature, fusing German WW2 wartime know-how, 1950's NATO army know-how and his conclusions. His writing needs to be seen in context though - he basically wrote for the case that the NATO might repeat the Eastern Front war of WW2.

This quote is one of the many interesting quotes in those books. The "schwere Wurfgerät" he's writing about is the "Schweres Wurfgerät 41" or "Schwerer Wurfrahmen 40" in calibre 32cm.
Both were crude weapons, the former was for prepared fires, especially in breakthrough actions:
The latter (Schwerer Wurfrahmen 40) was mounted on the APC of that time, a SdKfz 250, and was therefore mobile enough for the kind of actions that Middeldorf wanted:

Some things changed in the post-war artillery; primitive and cheap weapons like these were certainly not well-suited for the military-industrial complex - and the artillery technology advanced with proximity fuzes for greater fragmentation effect and DPICM for even greater fragmentation. But fragmentation works best against unprotected targets, and it's rather simple to protect a force in the field against DPICM. A light truck with a foxhole excavator and a strong plate to cover and camouflage the foxhole is one example of how to do it in minutes.

NATO countries did apparently not see much need for Wurfgerät-like weapons and munitions in the past decades, but WW2 experiences aren't the only thing that suggests some merit in the idea:
The Russians developed and produced the TOS-1M "Heavy Flamethrower" system. They don't use napalm, conventional explosive or flame oil, but thermobaric warheads and used old MBT hulls instead of APC hulls as carriers. I mentioned the system already in August.

There's a difference between Middeldorf's concept and the TOS-1, though: Middeldorf wanted these weapons as rarely used overwhelming firepower organic to mechanised infantry (Panzergrenadier) battalions - the TOS-1 appears to be a higher level ordnance.

Nevertheless; did we reject the Wurfgerät weapons category too early, do we have a gap in our equipment for a fight against fortified areas?

S O

Plausibility

I did once explain the need for reform in politics to a conservative friend like this:

Effective and popular bills have already been passed.
Effective but unpopular bills have not been passed yet (most of them).
Ineffective and popular bills have already been passed (some of them).
Ineffective and unpopular bills are extremely rare.

The decisive variable in politics isn't only effectiveness, but also popularity - which leaves us always some potential for improvement.

It's similar for innovations (also in military affairs).
The variable "popularity" can be replaced by "plausibility" (or other variables - let's stick to plausibility for now).

There's certainly much potential for improvement/innovation in equipment, tactics, operational art, strategy, logistics, wartime policy.

We can search for innovation potential the normal way - just for effective+plausible - but we won't find much potential for improvement this way.

Instead, we should consider to look for implausible but effective changes.

That's quite difficult, especially if you don't have a unit at hand for experiments; the human brain depends a lot on plausibility. But some things are only implausible and seemingly paradox on the surface. That was described very well in the book "Strategy: The Logic of Peace and War" by E.N. Luttwak.

There are other variables that reduce the likeliness of effective innovations. These variables represent human weaknesses. Technological lock-in, tradition, necessary effort, (no) profit opportunity for arms industry and so on.

Sven Ortmann