This chart shows the development of Greek 10 year bonds.
It proves that those who actually bought these bonds in the marketplace were failing to anticipate the crisis; they bought the bonds without demanding an appropriate risk premium. There was no substantial risk premium in these trades until immediately before the Greek debt crisis this year.
The level of 2002-2009 is comparable to low-risk investments' rates.
Marketplaces - crowd intelligence - are rumoured to be better at anticipation than lonely government officials.
What does this tell us about the ability to predict conventional war? Not much, but it leaves more than just a trace of discomfort. After all, some NATO and government officials speak of an early warning period of six years before a major conflict that would require mobilization.
The early warning period may indeed be six years. It was decades in the case of Greece.
Would this early warning period be used well or would security policy fail to exploit it and be surprised just like the professional bond investors?