Official U.S. opinion: Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon


OK,this came a bit as a surprise to me, after all the rhetoric from that side of the Atlantic.

It appears that certain analysts' speculations about Iran just trying to come close enough to a nuke for having the threat of building a nuke as deterrence were not only interesting, but probably accurate.
That's an awfully risky strategy, of course.

Now I wonder how all those sanctions can be justified, for Iran doesn't even appear to violate the (actually not especially highly ranked) nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

S Ortmann


  1. It doesn't look like justifications matter so much. People believing official political justifications from the US are either extremly dumb or paid to believe. I don't see a middle ground.
    And it maker absolutely no difference. They can say Iran is Al Qaeda and that's all. Nobody will protest.
    Just like in our previous discution about the reason why european navy deployed in the Indian Ocean and took over the area from the US Navy. Officially to protect the shipping lanes from pirates. Russian Navy gave the same reason for large applications in the Pacific. Can't let a good reason be wasted because you don't have a a dosen hungry guys in rags to show as being th enemies of mankind. They might show up anytime so you have to be ready for that.
    Military power in important , reasons are irrelevant. Anything goes.
    And the game is about who controls the energy and capital flows from the Gulf. And there the UK/US can't make any concesion. No independent power center can be allowed there. Distruction of Iran as a functional society and a nice civil war like in Libia, Irak, Afghanistan would be great. Just that it's a little bit more difficult to do. If it can be done we shall see.

  2. Something else I thought about the subject you mentioned. Right now the US does not have any opponent. For the rank of supreme leader , of hegemonic superpower, of hyperpower whatever. And yet amazingly they are fighting against themselves. Trying to waste their legitimacy which is right now absolutely not contested by anyone. Trying to provoke a blowback when nobody is organizing it.

    Amazingly there is a popular saying about this type of behaviour. When people don\t have anyting to do they behave like monkeys at the zoo. Start scratching their own behinds untill they get a wound.

    The US is trying to loose a fight against no one.

    At least that is my personal impresion. Almost unbelievable behaviour.If it would not happen I personally would consider it is a very bad political sf story.

  3. It seems humans can\t function without restraints. No alternative social-economic model exists. Just variations, some better, but at detail level. No alternative power center, be it military, political, economic whatever.
    And yet the uncontested leader went mad, it fights against its own power base which beyond raw power is represented by our acceptance.

    Is a process - pls help if you have a better comparison, not hard I think - simmilar to what I read in a book wrote by Toynbee. the janisaries changed from guard dogs into wolves. Instead of protecting the flock they started harrasing the sheeps. Unreasonably. It worked for hundreds of years - then, history was slower. But they had to be eliminated in the end.