2009/06/21

Iran, June 2009: Defence by solidarity

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It's still unknown what the Iranian unrest will achieve.


Except one achievement:
Iran won't be bombed by the U.S. for a while.

The protesters give a face to the PEOPLE of Iran. They have become humans even in the opinion of Neocons and other extremists in the West. In fact, even some of those who are usually rather fearmongering and warmongering portrait the Iranians as similar to Americans.

This sudden change turned the political climate to a state in which bombing is extremely unlikely.

This could change quickly, of course. The protests might fail and leave only the regime as representative of Iran.

The best (air) defence of Iran right now and in the next years is a visible political opposition (or a new government).

Sven Ortmann
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3 comments:

  1. you'll find the IRIAF (Islamic Republic of Iran's Air Force) would be a bigger challenge for the USAF than the Iraqi Air Force was

    they still have around 20 of those F-14A's flying with upgraded avionics (however no missiles as good as the old AIM-54's anymore!)

    however yes the United States would win eventually!


    and Sven hopefully these protests won't spark into a civil war, with the general public on one side and the government on the other!

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  2. While Iran might be safe from bombing in the short term, the Iranian crackdown on the protesters is another arrow in the hawks' quiver when making the case for war. Moussavi's supporters don't really have much representation in the military, republican guard, police, or basij(sp?), so unless Iran has widespread private weapons ownership, I don't think this could develop into a civil war(although there are already many armed groups hostile to the Iranian Regime). The information war aspect is going to be key. If Khomenei can effectively portray the protests as western subterfuge, and discredit the protesters as terrorists he should be able to crack down on them without creating more opposition. If the protesters can distance themselves enough from the West, whose cheerleading media coverage is not helping in this respect, and portray the leadership as corrupt and criminal, they may even be able to sway some Ahmedinejad(forgive the spelling) voters, and bring pressure on the regime to come to some sort of compromise.

    So look for the regime to either seek a dialogue with the opposition to try to diffuse the situation, or respond with a very brutal crackdown on opposition. Rather than hoping for an overthrow of the Islamic Republic, we in the West should be pressuring the Iranian regime to resolve the situation peacefully.

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  3. The key in such situations is whether cracks develop in the will of the state forces or not.

    The military is probably unimportant as they would prefer to send the more loyal paramilitary (revolutionary guards) in.
    The lower army ranks might mutiny if ordered to crack down on the protests.

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