I haven't written much about military theory recently. This is in part because I reserve same thoughts for another publication, in part because military theory is simply not suited or regular posting. It's most importantly simply ill-suited for quantity production.
Today I'd like to write instead about the background that goes into such military theory thoughts, something about myself.
Over the course of several years, I have learned about certain biases of my own.
I tend to overestimate my opponent's creativity a lot. I worry about courses of action that my opponents don't take - they usually take much simpler, more straightforward courses of action.
This applies from things such as influencing someone in a discussion up to wargaming. The actions I encountered back during my time in yellow olive were never as elaborate as expected. Most often the other team simply exploited some mistake done by my team elsewhere; they seized opportunities instead of creating them.
I did detect another bias in myself as well: I underestimate others' abilities in techniques. I was never really good or interested at anything rote, and this may contribute to my underestimation of others in this regard.
So whenever I write something detailed about military theory, keep in mind I am striving for creating opportunities knowing that often times just seizing opportunities does the trick as well. I just inherently don't like to depend on other people's mistakes for my success, because quite frankly, those "other" people may be in my team.
Even if somebody would ask me to write an article or a book on seizing opportunities that just happen to pop up and offers to pay up front: I would be the wrong man for it. Totally different story when it's about creating opportunities and then exploiting them (albeit my interest in the latter is lesser)!