Climate change and effects on GDP in regions

There's a published study - "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production" - that predicts enormous loss of economic output in most of the Third World due to climate change. 

The effects look almost as if they were tailored to benefit the First and Second* Worlds and cement their dominance.

This was but one study  and may be falsified soon, but I suppose it makes sense to keep an eye on climate change / global warming as a shaping force that will change the world unevenly. It's almost as if some world-dominating sentient being was playing grand strategy games in favour of the already rich countries (and in particular against India).
It's fashionable to have "visions" of Western decline due to demographics et cetera ; the opposite would be appropriate if the study mentioned above is correct. The study does on the other hand lend support to those who predict gigantic migration movements from poor to rich countries.

Quick remark; I think they didn't claim that GDP growth would be due to climate change anywhere; such growth just happens (at about 1.5% p.a. in the Western world). They did ascribe GDP losses to increased temperatures, though. Reduced outdoor productivity, increased energy costs for cooling buildings, reduced if not eliminated agriculture, increased health care expenses, damage to infrastructure etc.


*: Second World was never a popular term, but it described the developed and so-called "communist" countries during the Cold War. I suppose today one could include the PRC.

1 comment:

  1. From the abstract it seems their temperature function is extracted from the standard economic period of 1960 onwards. Granted, this is a period of over 50 years by now, but it excludes one of the dominating events of the previous century (all categories). This makes it somewhat dubious when forcasting 84 years into the future.

    A scenario where India and China meekly accept GDP losses due to climate change while Russia benefits (and from fossil fuels to boot!) does not seem terribly stable over the long run for instance.