2008/04/02

Alliances and guarantee of independence

Sometime in 1831 several European countries guaranteed the sovereignty of Belgium. This became one of the major causes (/excuse) for the British entry into the bloody Great War 1914-1918, an almost civilization-shattering experience.

Such guarantees should not be taken lightly - they require very good reasoning.

It's similar with the addition of new members to an alliance. Such a move is equally important for the old members as it is for the new member.
It should be considered carefully and - worthy for a democracy - be subject to an intense public debate.

The prospect of Ukraine and Georgia being added to the NATO (a possible move that would probably be rather detrimental to the old member's overall national security) as an act of cabinet decisions is a horror idea.

We should really be aware that we might lose what we have (like peace, stability, good terms with Russia, no Russian-Chinese alliance) if we are too dumb with our alliance's grand strategy.

About Georgia; I don't see any positive relevance to our national security related to Georgia.
About the Ukraine; an agreement to keep it a block-free, neutral country comparable to Sweden or Finland would be perfect. We surely don't want it to become part or close partner of Russia unless Russia becomes our close friend. But its addition to the NATO (contrary to previous non-expansion agreement) could create a hostility with Russia that might hurt us a lot in the long run (an alliance with the PR China is not really unlikely).


I advise to at least wait with any decisions of that scale till the USA got rid of Dumbya and his neocon we-fail-at-everything crowd in 2009.

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