Its military will be an irrelevant addition, and it posed no threat.
We
could (and should) let North Macedonia cut its military expenses to a
minimum (such as an infantry regiment with COTS motor vehicles and
nothing else) and let them invest in developing health, education and
infrastructure for the good of their young and future generations.
Instead,
I fear, the bureaucracy of NATO and the national bureaucracy will do
business as usual and push for a switch to NATO standard munitions, NATO
standard communication tech, maintain a somewhat balanced mini army
with tanks and artillery (without the appropriate spares or munition
stocks, of course). Some particularly stupid politicians will blather
about "2%" sooner or later.
The most ridiculous thing will be the Russian protests about North Macedonia's accession, of course.
S O
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Ive been working on my North Macedonian ORBAT, TOE, TOO and brief suggested doctrine for a while. Can't figure out if they should go for a larger combined arms light(ish) division or a (sadly) smaller heavier reinforced brigade. May have a problem getting the correct manning in given population constraints, but I was thinking all of the second echelon could be made up of those scary grandmother types you see round that neck of the woods.
ReplyDeleteThis is very important work, I assume you'll be waiting with baited breath for the final doc.
They may want to have a military first and foremost suitable for border standoffs with Kosovars/Albanians since they had their initial issues already and a sizeable Albanian minority in the West.
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albanian_nationalism_(North_Macedonia)#Post_Yugoslavia:_Macedonian_independence_and_the_2001_insurgency
I've wargamed it out. The tactical efficiency of those grandmothers armed with umbrellas overmatches all other force compositions.
DeleteThat doesnt mean they still shouldn't buy some kit. F22, F35. Maybe a carrier or two for their navy, and don't give me any drivel about them being landlocked and as so don't need a navy. Round that off with a couple hundred M1 tanks and make sure their sidearm is a 1911 in .45. All good.
Surprising result really, but I'm just following the data. I'll go tell Trump.
We could of course let Macedonia disband it's military and offer to defend it.
ReplyDeleteIt's less clear cut when we ask should we, and sadly, it's very obviously no when we ask "could we defend Macedonia".
NATO is already well past breaking point, and yet keeps adding responsibility and shedding resources.
Macedonia; population 2M, land area 25000km2. Keep it in perspective mate.
ReplyDelete?
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