2020/03/07

Link drop March 2020

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edited following Wednesday:
I made a simplistic regression analysis of  the known SARS-CoV 2 infections in Germany. Today we had 1,567 known cases. That regression curve (exponential, which is justified by the indeed exponential growth of confirmed infection cases outside of the PRC) came up with well over two million cases in Germany by early April. I doubt it's going to be that many (because there are factors that are likely to slow it), but it looks to me as if we'll have hundreds of thousands of cases by early April. (I don't believe the arrest of the epidemic in the PRC at all and consider their stats to be implausible.)

A small disclaimer: Doing a regression analysis including the imported cases is imperfect. I just don't have the statistics for infections that happened in Germany or close to its borders. Those figures would be better if we assume shrinking travel activity. Moreover, the wikipedia stats don't agree with the tracker stats, which stand at 1,908 cases.
This is just a quick&dirty first approximation interpolation anyway.  Interpolations are notoriously unreliable.
COVID-19 cases so far (data taken from Wikipedia for convenience).
Vertical axis is logarithmic. So if the growth looks linear, it's really exponential.
Extrapolation assuming exponential growth
Again: I don't think it's going to look like this.
It's no good time for Germany to have a do-nothing-just-sit-it-out-and-enjoy-having-power political "leadership".

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edited on Sunday:


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edited later on Saturday:
(These figures are for the U.S. only.)


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"Every war is easy to start, but it is extremely difficult to finish"
- attributed to Sallustius (though I never found the Latin original)
It's terribly true in our times, especially so if you are extremist in your expectations.

The Kosovo Air War was in some ways the ideal war; the victim had no substantial ability to retaliate and the aggressor could end the hot conflict at will. Lots of other things were terribly wrong about it, of course.

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I'm German, so I'm entitled to this kind of humour.


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www.leonardocompany.com/documents/20142/3149378/Copia_di_Miysis_DIRCM_LQ_mm08221_.pdf

DIRCM really seems to be compact enough for combat aircraft now. This may turn "stealth fighters" that cannot integrate DIRCM obsolete. A DIRCM-equipped aircraft may be highly resistant against both radar- and IR-guided missiles, while a stunted "stealth" fighter may be resistant only against radar-guided missiles. 
In case of irritation about the resistance of non-LO aircraft against radar-guided missiles: Look at the effects of multiple towed decoys, free-flying decoys launched from external hardpoints, and much more jamming than is to be expected from LO/VLO aircraft.

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blogs.360.cn/post/APT-C-39_CIA_EN.html
"The CIA Hacking Group (APT-C-39) Conducts Cyber-Espionage Operation on China's Critical Industries for 11 Years"

Well, of course they do. Anyone who believes the pretence about 'hacking back' is gullible.

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www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/06/opinion/working-class-death-rate.html
I wish I had such illustrations about Germany. Such economic distress symptoms might be very informative. I'm still not sure what exactly has fuelled the expansion of extreme right wing idiocy in recent years. The migration topic and exposure to idiotic American right wingers through the internet may not have been the only triggers.

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spioenkop.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-idlib-turkey-shoot-destruction-and.html

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www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/.premium-mossad-chief-visited-doha-urged-qataris-to-continue-gaza-financial-aid-1.8564993

Maybe it takes a Ph.D. in Levant studies to understand what's going on there.

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boingboing.net/2020/02/28/trump-administration-considers.html

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www.khaleejtimes.com/wknd/an-army-of-feminists

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www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3052014/wearing-mask-wont-stop-facial-recognition-anymore

I suppose they roll the tech out because of Hong Kong protests, not because of the (probably largely ineffective) surgical masks. 

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tenor.com/view/demolition-man-gif-11578005

They knew something in advance ...

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 Just WOW!

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Decades of war on science and war on factual education come home to roost.
 
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Biomachines, yet another Science Fiction coming true.

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[German]
www.der-postillon.com/2020/02/hoeckegruss.html

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[German]
Bei einem solchen Fehlverhalten von Bürokraten würde ich rücksichtslos mindestens zwei Führungsebenen und jeden anderen Beteiligten mit lebenslanger Beförderungssperre belegen, diverse Leute ersetzen und für mehrere Jahre alle Polizeioffiziere der Stadt (also die mit den goldenen Dienstgradabzeichen, höherer Dienst) erbarmungslos in Nachtschichten, Fußballspieleinsätze, Objektschutzeinsätze usw schicken. Am Ende sollten die und alle ähnlichen Bürokraten drumherum eine Lektion für's Leben gelernt haben.

S O
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13 comments:

  1. KRT7 March 2020 at 12:32

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. S O7 March 2020 at 12:47

      Nah, for the time being, let's not discuss any higher mortality than the 3.4% figure offered by WHO recently.

      Delete
    2. S O7 March 2020 at 12:50

      Addition: 3.4% was the mortality of infected people according to WHO. So the 3.4% would have to be multiplied with the share op population that gets infected.

      The 3.4% figure is going to be modified in the future, as two different strains have been identified and the more sneaky one is now more widespread than among the many initial cases in Wuhan.

      Delete
    3. KRT7 March 2020 at 14:05

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous8 March 2020 at 11:17

      "The Chinese data which seems fraudulent to me."

      Do not confuse lack of data with willingly modified data.
      The Chinese Wuhan region had the same issue as Italy or Iran, not enough tests in the early stages. Therefore, the apparent mortality is higher than the real.

      The cruise ship is the worst case scenario (1%), the initial apparent mortality in South Korea (0.5%) very likely close to the truth.

      Ulenspiegel

      Delete
    5. Anonymous8 March 2020 at 11:22

      "The 3.4% figure is going to be modified in the future, as two different strains have been identified and the more sneaky one is now more widespread than among the many initial cases in Wuhan."

      There is absolute no evidence that the different strains have different mortality or infectiousness.
      Try to follow the podcast of Prof. Drosten

      https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html

      He explained (Thursday/Friday) the scientific issue with some of the current headlines. It is very likely bogus.

      At the moment we have for 100-200 actually infected people one dead person. The interesting aspect is the high number of not detected infected personsin some countries.

      Ulenspiegel

      Delete
    6. S O8 March 2020 at 12:04

      Let's stop the speculation here. It's not our area of expertise.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous7 March 2020 at 14:12

    Anyone else got a pool going at work on total virus deaths? I went for 512k.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous8 March 2020 at 11:28

    Another very good podcast is

    http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

    Little bit slower than the Charite stuff, but gives here and there deeper scientific background, the Charite podcast has a higher frequency and discussees more practical matters.

    Ulenspiegel

    ReplyDelete
  4. Charles_in_Houston_Texas11 March 2020 at 04:54

    Arg! The US test kits require other reagents/kits
    to work and we dont have enough!

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212

    Now that some test kits are slowly showing up,
    and we don't have enough pre-requisite supplies to
    run the test kits!

    Sven, do you know if the test kits from elsewhere can be
    totally self-sufficient? (that dont depend on other kits)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. S O11 March 2020 at 08:55

      That's totally outside my area of interest.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous19 March 2020 at 21:24

      @Charles,

      A lot of major hospitals with research labs like the Cleveland Clinic have begun to manufacture supplies to support testing.

      The basic requirements a well understood and the medical community in developed countries are responding.

      If you are under 60, and otherwise healthy, you have little to fear.

      This is not the 'zombie apocalypse' - sensible precautions, attention to basic sanitation and cleanliness; monitor yourself - all should be well.

      GAB

      Delete
  5. Anonymous19 March 2020 at 21:09

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    John Hopkins has a "heat map" of the coronavirus.

    The data is suspect at this point due to the long incubation period of the virus and incomplete testing, but should become more useful moving forward.

    GAB

    ReplyDelete

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