Link drop December 2021


Now to the final link drop of the year. It's been a weird year, but at least there was no new war in Europe (Armenia and Azerbaijan being south of Caucasus and thus Asian) and the war in the Ukraine didn't flare up (and I'd be surprised if it does during this winter).

I had a string of disappointments this summer and autumn, seemingly saving up good luck, for I finally had a major luck in private life (fully separated from blogging).

The plan is to return to the Saturdays-only schedule from now on. Reactions to comments can be much-delayed around Christmas time, as every year, this includes belated removal of spam.









The interesting thing about this is that it's mobile and doesn't require any expensive platform. Such satellite jammers should be feasible at fairly low cost as they only require trailers, antenna mechanism and a powerful emitter with little requirements regarding frequency agility or frequency stability. The big question mark is whether such emitters could survive for long close to hostile (air) forces.

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I don't fully agree on some things, but the Russian Army did have (probably still has) a logistics problem in that many of its logistics vehicles are old and defective. Aggressors can boost technical readiness for invasion because they do know the time of invasion, though.

I suppose that both Russia and NATO powers need to make use of civilian logistics to supply munitions from depot to a Corps logistics point, and to bring fuel to such points as well. Military logistics vehicles may suffice in capacity to move the supplies from there to the manoeuvre forces. We'd need to establish a second Corps logistics hub farther forward (or anticipating a withdrawal: farther back) to cope with the demands of mobile warfare. The distance that the military logistics vehicles need to travel needs to be kept in a margin of tolerance.

The problem is that we have probably not enough preparation for getting the civilian logistics main supply route going. Many drivers are above military age or conscious objectors or so young that they have never been mustered and can become conscious objectors any time, for example. One should not assume that civilians are fine with such military transport jobs, especially with explosive and flammable supplies in wartime.

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It would rather not work in the mid and far IR spectrum, I think. The operating principle is AFAIK the same as to how you can see through a bush when you are close to it, but not when you are far from it. So outside thermal sensors can partially see the mid/far IR emissions of the user inside behind the concealment and would show that on a screen.

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I saw this first shown as an example of a really good camo, but most camo patterns look convincing if you use the right background, distance, light conditions, camera setting and possibly even photo editing. It would be interesting to have some kind of neutral institution that creates photos of the worn camouflage pattern under controlled and always identical conditions in a studio and then inserts it into a range of up to a hundred backgrounds. The photos could then be shown to the public. The visibility and the sympathy for the pattern could be rated on a 0...10 scale (sympathy included in an effort to separate it at least a bit from the judgment of effectiveness). The camo items would then be returned to sender or given away as lottery prizes. Instead, everyone who wants to sell some proprietary camo pattern or hype his favourite camo pattern can create photos or videos that make it look very effective. There may even be a place where UCP looks effective.

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[German] spektrum.de/kolumne/grams-sprechstunde-wer-globuli-saet-wird-impfgegnerschaft-ernten/1953463

"Einstieg zum Ausstieg aus dem wissenschaftlichen Denken"

 [German] rnd.de/promis/dirk-steffens-zu-umgang-mit-corona-und-klimaleugnern-falsch-verblendeten-das-wort-zu-erteilen-J6YHUZ6RX5CH7KFA54AU4UEI54.html






  1. This problem of Russian logistics, how bad is it among other militaries in Europe?
    There are a lot of reports of low readiness of the powerful NATO states, so I would expect the logistics to be in poor shape as well. If both sides have poor logistics, the constrains on Russia do look less bad.

    1. AFAIK many armies (certainly the German one) shrunk in the 90's with a surplus of logistic vehicles, typically kept at least the better ones (Germany discarded the East German ones) and cancelled major logistic vehicles procurement programs (unless maintaining them as industry subsidy, IIRC Tatra).

      There were hardly any purchases in the 90's, and afterwards the focus was on protected vehicles, some exotics (ATVs for AFG and such) and up-armouring cabs.

      The inventory of 8x8 9...20 ton vehicles in all of Europe appears to be very old on average.

      The significant difference is whether the army afforded the necessary care (spare parts, skilled mechanics) to keep the old logistics vehicles very useful.

      I strongly suppose that NATO would depend on civilian logistics vehicles for moving supplies to within 70...150 km of the battlefield, though. Rail seems to be too unreliable to be part of any plans (railway bridges being the main issue).

  2. Meanwhile, in other news...

    Putin has, for the first time, explicitly warned that if the US and NATO decline to provide the security guarantees Moscow has sought, his future course of action will be solely guided by “the proposals that our military experts will make to me.” Clearly, there is no more wriggle room left.

    In the 1990s, NATO promised Russia that the US-led military bloc would not move “an inch to the east,” but this turned out to be a “vehement” and “blatant” lie, Russia's President Vladimir Putin insisted on Thursday.
    Speaking to journalists at his annual end-of-year press conference, the President claimed that Russia was cheated by the West, which broke its verbal agreements not to admit former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact countries into NATO following the fall of the USSR.

    Deliveries of Russian natural gas to Germany through the Yamal-Europe pipeline have been completely halted, data from the country’s transport operator, Gascade, revealed on Tuesday morning.

    1. That promise by NATO was an oral remark, whereas the Russian guarantee of Ukraine's sovereignty was written, signed and ratified.


      The opinion of Russians in general and rt in particular on the matter is of no significance.

      Russia doesn't have enough troops to take on all of Ukraine and annex it.