2022/01/28

Twitter account

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I've set up a twitter account with the intent to first describe the blog a bit and then 'tweet' a mix of new (Saturdays) and old (when I feel it) blog posts as an additional gateway to the blog.
 
Feel free to follow and do whatever people do on twitter. Just pretty please make mommy proud of your manners in the replies there. 

twitter: @DefenceFreedom

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2022/01/25

Ukraine crisis and obligations (rant)

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There's some bitching about Germany not delivering weapons tot he Ukraine, a country with an ongoing limited defensive war against its neighbour Russian federation and the latter's proxies.

For starters, the legal situation in Germany is such that the delivery of weapons and munitions to the Kurds for their fight against daesh was a very astonishing and extremely unusual move. It may even have been illegal, but I haven't seen any legal studies about this topic.

The British were lauded in contrast to Germany for delivering anti-tank missiles. Lauding the British? Really?

Anti-tank missiles are close to useless for the Ukrainians. Yes, defeating Russian and Russian-delivered tanks was a huge problem for them in the battles and skirmishes of the past years, but this has to be considered in the context of the Russians refraining from using their air force (they only used some small drones for the sake of non-credible deniability). An invasion of the Ukraine by the Russian army forces that the news are about would certainly include air power. Even perfect flawless anti-tank armament would not save the Ukrainians in that case. 

- - - - -

Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine, which was about Ukraine giving up the nukes it inherited from the Soviet Union. The Russian Federation guaranteed the sovereignty of the Ukraine in its then known borders (with Crimea Ukrainian) in written form, signed and ratified.*

quote:

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

This means that the Russian Federation under the kleptocrat-in-chief is just as useless a treaty partner as was the U.S. under the lying moron. Anyone doing any deal with them should insist that they deliver first.

- - - - -

So what does the UK have to do when the Ukraine is under attack?

4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

Meanwhile, I will give you a summary of the German obligations if the Ukraine comes under attack, to the best of my knowledge:

jack shit

- - - - -

Here's my assessment of the crisis:

Putin would have overrun the Ukraine if he meant to. He would have overrun the East Ukraine if he meant to. The Russian Military would not need months of publicly known preparations to overrun the Ukraine. 

To overrun the entire Ukraine would be self-defeating, as the strong Ukrainian nationalism would guarantee a messy guerilla war for years if not decades to come and the West would be incentivised to support it. Overrunning the East Ukraine (where there's a large Russian population) would be self-defeating as well, as the remaining West Ukraine full of Russia-hating Ukrainian nationalists would see NATO troops arriving quickly and would join NATO in record time, right on Moscow's doorstep (by Russian standards).

The troops build-up is a build-up of bargaining chips for a deal and we should not recognise those bargaining chips in order to not reward such aggressive behaviour. Stupid decisions can overcome such reasoning, but the Russian kleptocrat-in-chief proved to be more rational in such cases than the average Western politician so far.

- - - - -

related:

/2008/04/alliances-and-guarantee-of-independence.html

/2008/10/nato-enlargement-discussion-and-germany.html

/2014/01/the-ukrainian-question.html

/2014/03/what-i-wrote-years-ago.html

/2014/04/the-less-americans-know-about-ukraines.html

/2014/04/putins-way-of-aggression.html

/2014/05/a-western-bargaining-strategy.html

/2014/08/if-western-great-power-gaming-wasnt-so.html

/2014/09/ukraine-worst-really-abd-case-scenario.html

/2016/09/putins-conflicts.html

And if anyone comes with some remarks about German natural gas imports; go stuff yourself with that where the sun don't shine. The topic is more intricate than I've ever seen written in comments here or elsewhere. More intricate by multiple levels. It's like people thinking they make a smart statement when they say a car tastes like hard rubber.

 

S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

P.S.: I was inaccurate if not misleading in the January link drop when I wrote that the massed Russian troops would not be enough to take on the entire Ukraine. They could smash the regular military, but they could not occupy the entire Ukraine. The Russians needed a ridiculous troops:population ratio to get Chechnya under control. They are just as incompetent at occupations as the Americans and the British are.

*: Not some supposedly petty spoken word as in the supposedly given NATO guarantee to not expand eastward that the usual idiots for Russian propaganda talk about so much. The Budapest Memorandum is an actual signed and ratified, in the manner of a binding treaty.

edit next day: red and crossed text are corrections made today, I'm sorry for the mistake. I'd like to add that France and China gave separate unilateral assurances to the Ukraine, but I did not look up their full texts.

In case someone is appalled by my negligence behind the mistake made: My excuses are "it was a rant and I mentioned that in the title", "I do not get paid for this", "I am just a blogger", "it was late at night", "I have no editor", "it's not terribly common", "at least I corrected it visibly" and "It doesn't really affect the overall picture; it was a rather empty promise that reflects badly on trustworthiness".

Now if someone was to dig up some actual obligations of Germany to assist the Ukraine in this crisis, THAT would seriously embarrass me.

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2022/01/22

(temporary) no blog post today

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There's no blog post prepared for today. Don't worry, I'm fine.

Feel free to discuss something in the comments.


S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de
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2022/01/15

Mayor Vaugh at the helm

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The biggest lesson from this plague is that the Western world -and much of the rest of the world- is getting governed by Mayor Larry Vaughn from "Jaws".
 

The behaviour patterns were identical in many countries and states; no decisiveness, pandering to popular opinion, fixation on superficialities, prioritisation of economic interests over citizens' lives, preferring any advice that suits the own preferences, not following public policy rules in private life ... and staying in power (or being replaced by people who turn out to be just the same).

Even worse; supposed competence centres showed that technocracy is no superior alternative, either. Even the dedicated anti-plague agencies of wealthy large countries were plagued by poor decisionmaking, if not showing appalling and unforgivable incompetence (such as the near-total statistics-analphabetic German RKI). They shone mostly when compared to the outright idiocy of dangerous idiots.

I spent more than a decade blasting away at the shortcomings of the establishment of government agencies and politicians in the field of military affairs and to some extent also foreign policy. The pandemic confirms that the systemic problem is more widespread, my suspicion is that all discontinuous government tasks are affected by the same systemic problems as in military policy. A military prepares for an event war that (hopefully) only happens once every couple decades or centuries, our supposed plague experts only got tested after a 100-year break (one could also say they failed during both influenza epidemics of the 60's and 70's). Natural disaster responses are also prone to display disappointing performances, albeit this is most commonly attributable to insufficient budgeting before the disaster.

Sadly, this seemingly systemic proneness to failure in uncommon, rare challenges may also be an important factor behind the apparent inability to execute foreign policy strategy and geostrategy. The politicians and top bureaucrats may even be so aware of the proneness to disappointing behaviour that they avoid accepting unusual challenges.

In other words; predictable incompetence at execution may be the reason for the timidity and inactivity regarding strategy.
 
It doesn't help that Europeans often elected conservatives into power, who block decisive action by definition and spent decades to built institutions (including the EU) that by design prove stabilising, perpetuating, resistant to changes of course.This is beneficial in regard to some issues and harmful in others.


How could we possibly expect solutions to well-known problems or even some coherent, sensible grand strategy from Mayor Vaughn?

 
P.S.: Sadly, the political press also failed spectacularly. One detail of this is that they criticised politicians for wrong things. I saw severe criticism about inefficiencies and mistakes made in hurried, frantic mas purchases. Those mistakes (not some related profiteering) were completely excusable IMO. The lack of comparably energetic action on other issues is what should have been criticised. Somehow the press finds it much more entertaining to criticise action than to criticise inaction. This may be related to the numbing success of actual conservatives.
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2022/01/08

Low silhouette vehicles

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The most iconic German post-WW2 wheeled military vehicle is the "Unimog", a 2-ton (2.200 kg) extremely offroad-capable 4x4 vehicle. You can see the basic version here and see other versions listed under "LKW 2t tmil gl" here.

As far as I can tell the vehicle is extremely popular, but I never liked it, and the dislike was almost instant: The vehicle just seemed to be way too big (especially way too high) for its very modest payload. The wheels alone are huge, and the high performance suspension with huge ground clearance all-but guaranteed that the vehicle stands very tall.

The rough French equivalent ACMAT VLRA has also big wheels, but some versions feature a collapsible  cabin/folding windscreen for a much lower profile (which earlier Unimog generations also had).

ACMAT VLRA, 4x4 version for approx. 1.5 tons

- - - - -

I found long ago (and recently rediscovered) a book; "U.S. military wheeled vehicles" by Fred W. Crismon, 1983. It features an entire chapter on a program for low profile wheeled motor vehicles.

It turned out that the U.S. Army discovered around 1940 that the then-modern motor vehicles were difficult to conceal on a battlefield, and tried to get less tall vehicles. Folding windscreens were a must-have, but the seating of the driver was also often exotic. Some prototype vehicles were modifications of existing vehicles, and the whole program basically went nowhere because the Department of War/U.S.Army had already settled on wheeled motor vehicle standard types in 1941/1942, and this low profile vehicle program only began in 1942.

The logistics vehicles in this program were able to be configured for a very low silhouette, but most payload onboard would have prevented this.

The French tried and succeeded at developing some 8-wheeled (not 8x8) armoured vehicles with remarkably low silhouette going back to a late 1930's development and the Dutch improvised a remarkably compact 8x6 (not a typo) APC in the 1950's.

It appears that keeping the silhouette low was considered desirable, but hardly ever won out when design compromises needed to be made.

I'm not really in a position to complain; my favoured wheeled army vehicle is a 8x8 15 ton to 20 ton vehicle because this is the most efficient choice regarding driver personnel and convoy size / passthrough duration*.

- - - - -

We should nevertheless pay attention to the topic of concealability of motor vehicles. It makes sense to me to think about two very different types of units (or convoys):

There are on the one hand the vehicles that can normally be associated with an army combat brigade. This is where the convoy efficiency argument strikes in favour of fewer bigger payload vehicles.

And then there are scouting / observation / reconnaissance style vehicles. Not all of the latter need to be armoured. Four or five men teams for observation (Fernspäher/LRRP/LRS) could infiltrate and exfiltrate together with armoured recce (small) units, and 'peel off' when close to their mission area. Then they'd need to hide their vehicle and move by foot for some distance. Later on, they'd have to recover their vehicle (maybe first check some unattended sensors to see if somebody had discovered them), and join an exfiltrating armoured recce convoy. This could very well be done with a compact 4x4 car that fits into the garage of an abandoned civilian home, even with a civilian-looking 4x4 car (for hiding in plain sight). Alternatively, a very compact and very low silhouette design could be hidden among or even be disguised as something else without anyone suspecting a car.


related:

/2013/11/non-comat-vehicles-musings.html

/2012/12/parasitic-land-vehicles-for-army.html

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

*: This is definitely not the correct term, but I don't know the correct one. Motor vehicles move so quickly that in addition to the convoy length in metres it's also interesting to think about the time it takes the convoy to pass a point.

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2022/01/01

Link drop January 2022

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edit 6th January: I updated a VERY old blog post with new and very much contradicting information. So I recommend to look at it briefly if you read among my2009 blog posts (I generally recommend to read old blog posts, for I think most aged well and many are timeless; they could have been written years if not decades earlier or later just as well).
 
Happy new year! 
 

 
 
 
I hardly wrote about it, but it looks as if the much-published fears of intensified war in the Ukraine won't be followed by action any time soon. The reported quantity of masses troops seemed inadequate for taking on the whole country anyway. The Ukrainians know how to fight in cold wintertime just as well as the Russians, so the avoidable troubles of wintertime made this season a rather implausible choice for aggression timing.
Some people have tried to understand the Russian perspective how oh-so threatening NATO is encroaching Russia. Well, Russia signed and ratified a guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty, and violates it. NATO and its members never wrote, signed or ratified any promise to Russia about limiting what countries could join it. The countries that join NATO do so as sovereign countries who have the right to do decide this way. Russia's great power ambitions are fundamentally about disrespecting the sovereignty of neighbouring countries, it fails to be an attractive alternative to NATO/EU and it proved to be untrustworthy.
Far right wingers in Europe and the U.S. have begun to like Russia because of the pretence of "strong man" in power, chauvinism, gayhating and just in general oppression of people whom right wingers don't like anyway. That Russian political culture is a culture of stagnation and exploitation; Russia's economy is crap because oligarchs ruin or suppress every effort of actually creating a good new business. The quality of life is crap, and would be even crappier if Russia hadn't so many natural resources to exploit. They can hardly export anything but raw materials and barely refined raw materials because their economy is so shit at everything else, particularly at everything high tech.

Russian exports 2017:
for comparison: German exports 2017:
Russia is a failing nation, and its politicians are corrupt, and not better than ours at all.
Russian ambitions of dominance over other countries is no more worthy of agreement than American and Israeli habitual occupation and bombing of other countries.

S O

2021/12/25

Future naval commerce raiding

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The concept of a helicopter-equipped disguised merchant raider seems plausible and doable to me, particularly if the merchant raiders were sent out before war broke out.

Such an auxiliary cruiser would not need a gun, and could easily hide helipad and helicopter hangar in a fake container stack.

 


The range could be ten thousands of nautical miles plus kerosene for hundreds of helicopter sorties, enough for a months of operations. The helicopter could do boarding and sinking of merchant ships in hundreds of nautical miles radius. It would arrive with little warning, might be able to jam the civilian radio channels and it could be mistaken for a friendly anti-commerce raider inspection team. To scout and strike, even take prizes with the helicopter instead of with the auxiliary cruiser itself would largely defeat ocean surveillance efforts at least outside of over the horizon radars' view. The auxiliary cruiser would look like just another ship running away from a reported boarding site.

It's not for certain that AIS (radio-based ship identification system, nowadays even read by satellites) would be of much help. Sympathetic nations could help the raiding nation by having AIS switched off on many neutral cargo ships, for example.

 

The direct damage done wouldn't be the biggest effect. Think about today's maritime trade. A German import of West African cocoa would have been a simple direct route of a general cargo ship from one West African port to a German port. Nowadays it's some container going on a travel, possibly with lots of detours and it might be unloaded in the Netherlands. The longer the trading distance, the more complicated the container logistics. A single container ship in the Indian Ocean could have containers from dozens of countries destined for dozens of countries at the same time.

I'm no expert on maritime law of war, but my understanding is* that a ship is fair game in war if it has cargo (other than food or medical supplies) of or for the enemy other than its imports of foodstuff or medical products. Just about every container freighter would fit that criterion nowadays. 

A handful of commerce raiding-auxiliary cruisers on the oceans would not compel the West to set up a convoying scheme. The most we could do would be to define main transportation lanes so whatever commerce raider is active would only be a threat in a much smaller portion of the oceans. The shipping companies might still revise the load of ships and seek to purify them of any warring party cargo. The disruption of our trade might be substantial and much greater than the almost negligible effort of equipping a dozen auxiliary cruisers (which could be well below €2 bn assuming that the ships have to be purchased and taking into account the costs of quality helicopters).


S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

 

*: I'd be obliged to research this if I was working for a defence think tank, but this is just a one-man-show out of passion, and researching law ain't fun.
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2021/12/18

Future motivation for Anti-ship warfare / ASuW

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The Russians were the dominant experts on anti-ship warfare in the 1970's to 1990's. The Soviet -era arsenal developed to defeat Western (mostly American) naval surface forces was built-up with carrier-killing in mind. The U.S. Navy developed a multi-layered defence with E-2 AEW, F-14 fighters (complemented by F/A-18) and AEGIS shipborne air defences. The Soviet approach was to use relatively large missiles with active radar and preferably supersonic speed, and they usually cruised high with a terminal dive attack. AEGIS was tailored against this (and as a consequence almost entirely useless against sea skimmer missiles, which the Soviets introduced later than the West).

Meanwhile, NATO countries had so little adversary naval surface power that their anti-ship equipment was sophisticated, but low priority. The peak was a low level attack with a synchronised anti-radar missile and anti-ship missile strike, followed up with dumb 'iron' bombs to sink the missile-damaged ship.

The Western approach would not work all that well against the USN's own defences; AEW and high-flying fighters would be able to engage low-flying aircraft at an advantage.

Western anti-ship missile ranges were typically unimpressive compared to Russian ones, save for one Tomahawk cruise missile derivative. They weren't designed under the assumption that the attack would face many capable fighters.

Nowadays we place more emphasis on missile stealth, aircraft stealth to radar may play a bigger (undisclosed) role in the tactics and at least the USN tries to gain anti-ship missile range, which leaves the shorter-ranged anti-radar missiles behind and indicates that anti-ship missile stealth may be considered a substitute to synchronisation with anti-radar missiles.

The Russians and also the Chinese (and Indians) kept developing not necessarily stealthy, but quite advanced anti-ship missiles; terminal phase supersonic sea skimmer missiles, smaller supersonic missiles, the very fast and good-ranged Yakhont and even medium range ballistic missiles with anti-ship guidance and purpose.

The West Taiwanese navy out-builds the American USN, as the latter has deteriorated to the point of having only stupid and excessively expensive combat ship designs ready for construction. The Americans will soon (2030's) be compelled to pay much more attention to engaging carrier strike fleets, and they would be ill-advised if they fully trusted their submarines with this.

Meanwhile, the Europeans might face a Fascist America even in this decade, with a then resulting need to find a way to absorb the  damage that could be done through financial economy, widespread use of auto-updating American software (which de facto has a backdoor for American "cyber" warfare) and thousands of cruise missiles. It also needs to find ways to deal with American carrier strike groups, up to a dozen carriers with then approx. 600...800 1st and 2nd rate combat aircraft on board.


This situation may overall lead to significant leaps ahead in doctrines and technology for the detection, identification and destruction of naval surface forces in the 2020's and 2030's.



S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2021/12/11

An alternative "mass" or "Schwerpunkt" paradigm

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Linear warfare with about equal strength along a front has proved inferior to an unequal distribution of forces with offensive use of the strongest section, an early notable example being the Battle of Leuctra with its oblique order and another Alexander the Great's use of shock cavalry attacks. The principle has long since become enshrined in Western military thought and theory, famously by Frederick the Great and Carl von Clausewitz.

 

We had a great drive towards dispersion in order to maintain enough survivability in face of the rapidly escalating deadliness of firepower. Concentrated strength -mass- could prevail against high end firepower only under cover of such powerful support that not one army in the world could muster. No army has the combination of air defence, electronic warfare, artillery counterfires and even C-RAM hard kill defences to mass for long without being punished badly by fires of a high end opposing force.

 

The almost inevitable rise of various autonomous battlefield drones (ground/air/both, small bird size to a ton of weight) could replace the most obvious and most common expression of mass; a tank company or battalion fighting as one and overpowering opposition in line-of-sight combat.

The principle may still hold true; equal distribution of drone swarms may very well be inferior to massed efforts, though EMP area attacks (and to a lesser degree locally focused RF jamming) might prove to be an antidote to force concentrations the way that tactical nuclear warheads were to armies of soldiers and motor vehicles.

There is another possible paradigm for mass, and I will write about it, but first, let's assume a scenario for drone war:

The drones are of varying sizes and different specialisations, autonomous but also able to make use of radio links, most drones are very stealthy, they can recharge batteries in action (photovoltaic or by processing organic matter) and some may even be able to hide in underground or indoors.

The drones operate as swarms, which includes enough cooperation and mobility to apply pulsing attacks; movement for temporary concentrations for saturation attacks.

These temporary geographic concentrations wouldn't really the mainstay of "massing" and "Schwerpunkt", though. Instead, the temporary local superiority would be achieved by an unsustainably high degree of support effort. This includes especially electronic warfare. I wrote about this ages ago, and I stills tick to it; support assets are too much exposed to attrition risks if used constantly. Instead, we should use them when and where they matter most (or to pick low-hanging fruits, which is a rather attritionist approach).

So imagine drone swarms facing each other, but due to some dynamics that favour defence (such as stealthiness of stationary drones) it's ineffective to try to let them be aggressive on a wide front simultaneously (unless you're superior to a point that makes finesse superfluous). Even physical massing of drones per se does not yield much success (regarding losses ratio) for such reasons and because of quick counter-concentration. 

Now imagine that our party has the electronic warfare means to gain a significant temporary local advantage (such as our drones still have limited cooperation through radio links, but theirs have jammed links). A local breakthrough would become possible, and the opposing force would have to react to this local crisis with rapid reserves, akin to Blitzkrieg front-line penetrations by mechanised forces requiring counterattacks by similarly fast troops.

The support assets for temporary local superiority would be very mobile and sufficiently stealthy on the cruise to enable a quick breakthrough or attack with limited objectives elsewhere, rinse and repeat. 

But it wouldn't be the physical mass or quantity of drones at the Schwerpunkt that would matter the most; it would be the activation of an unsustainable level of support. A temporary, unsustainable exhausting use of battery power of ten thousands of drones for a joint effort could also qualify as such a Schwerpunkt effort, in place of (EW) support.

 

In the end, massing forces such as a super-deep Theban pikeman/hoplite phalanx was only serving the purpose of achieving temporary local superiority on the attack. We don't really need a physical concentration to achieve this. A hoplite army could also have had an oblique order if it had placed exceptionally strong and well-armoured hoplites on one wing (they kinda did this on one wing each, which gave an indecisive asymmetric obliqueness- just imagine that but one side did it).

Great strength of great offensive efforts along a whole front are unsustainable or impossible, so the classic Schwerpunkt recipe is to accept weakness in many places, but mass in one place for offensive access through local temporary superiority. There are other ways how an effort can be unsustainable or impossible than just area density of forces. Notably, support efforts, exhausting of supplies (or battery power) would qualify as well.

So essentially I'm trying to convince you that the "mass" and "Schwerpunkt" ideas can be thought more widely. "massing" could also be interpreted as an unsustainable effort that enables offensive success.


S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

 

P.S.: This goes way beyond the 'massing of fires' (without moving troops), which had become ordinary military theory by WWI. The divisional artillery has been the division commander's primary Schwerpunkt tool at that time, later augmented by the specialised anti-tank units that created a geographic AT concentration if needed. 

Consider this model to see why what I wrote goes beyond massing of fires: Three howitzers defend three parallel valleys, one each. The outer valley's howitzers can mass the fires into the central valley. That's massing of fires. Now what I'm talking about is more akin to each of these howitzers being allotted 50 rounds per ordinary day, with a local reserve of 100 rounds. And any one such howitzer would be authorised to suddenly expend 150 rds in one day, exhausting its supply (=its support's ability). No fires from the other valleys would be needed for this unsustainable effort. It's not the same concept as massing of fires.

This model shows how awfully trivial the thought actually is. As so often, what I write isn't all that terribly complicated. The question is rather whether anyone ever bothered to write it down. I would have mentioned it if I was aware of anyone having done so.

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2021/12/04

Link drop December 2021

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Now to the final link drop of the year. It's been a weird year, but at least there was no new war in Europe (Armenia and Azerbaijan being south of Caucasus and thus Asian) and the war in the Ukraine didn't flare up (and I'd be surprised if it does during this winter).

I had a string of disappointments this summer and autumn, seemingly saving up good luck, for I finally had a major luck in private life (fully separated from blogging).

The plan is to return to the Saturdays-only schedule from now on. Reactions to comments can be much-delayed around Christmas time, as every year, this includes belated removal of spam.


nextbigfuture.com/2021/02/unipolar-carbon-nanotube-muscles-ten-to-thirty-times-human-muscle-and-two-to-six-times-diesel-v8.html

oryxspioenkop.com/2021/11/taking-africa-by-storm-niger-acquires.html

defence-blog.com/russian-cadets-creates-one-of-a-kind-spy-drone/

 

 

 

 

defence-blog.com/l3harris-to-upgrade-u-s-space-forces-first-offensive-weapon-system/

The interesting thing about this is that it's mobile and doesn't require any expensive platform. Such satellite jammers should be feasible at fairly low cost as they only require trailers, antenna mechanism and a powerful emitter with little requirements regarding frequency agility or frequency stability. The big question mark is whether such emitters could survive for long close to hostile (air) forces.

- - - - -

warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

I don't fully agree on some things, but the Russian Army did have (probably still has) a logistics problem in that many of its logistics vehicles are old and defective. Aggressors can boost technical readiness for invasion because they do know the time of invasion, though.

I suppose that both Russia and NATO powers need to make use of civilian logistics to supply munitions from depot to a Corps logistics point, and to bring fuel to such points as well. Military logistics vehicles may suffice in capacity to move the supplies from there to the manoeuvre forces. We'd need to establish a second Corps logistics hub farther forward (or anticipating a withdrawal: farther back) to cope with the demands of mobile warfare. The distance that the military logistics vehicles need to travel needs to be kept in a margin of tolerance.

The problem is that we have probably not enough preparation for getting the civilian logistics main supply route going. Many drivers are above military age or conscious objectors or so young that they have never been mustered and can become conscious objectors any time, for example. One should not assume that civilians are fine with such military transport jobs, especially with explosive and flammable supplies in wartime.

- - - - -

rhinoblinds.com/products/rhino-180-see-through-blind

It would rather not work in the mid and far IR spectrum, I think. The operating principle is AFAIK the same as to how you can see through a bush when you are close to it, but not when you are far from it. So outside thermal sensors can partially see the mid/far IR emissions of the user inside behind the concealment and would show that on a screen.

- - - - -

factly.in/camouflage-design-photo-of-a-us-company-is-falsely-portrayed-as-the-photo-of-indian-army-soldiers/

I saw this first shown as an example of a really good camo, but most camo patterns look convincing if you use the right background, distance, light conditions, camera setting and possibly even photo editing. It would be interesting to have some kind of neutral institution that creates photos of the worn camouflage pattern under controlled and always identical conditions in a studio and then inserts it into a range of up to a hundred backgrounds. The photos could then be shown to the public. The visibility and the sympathy for the pattern could be rated on a 0...10 scale (sympathy included in an effort to separate it at least a bit from the judgment of effectiveness). The camo items would then be returned to sender or given away as lottery prizes. Instead, everyone who wants to sell some proprietary camo pattern or hype his favourite camo pattern can create photos or videos that make it look very effective. There may even be a place where UCP looks effective.

- - - - -

thetimes.co.uk/article/british-army-returns-to-germany-in-face-of-russian-threat-bhs7lmnsv

- - - - -

bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59186655

 

[German] spektrum.de/kolumne/grams-sprechstunde-wer-globuli-saet-wird-impfgegnerschaft-ernten/1953463

"Einstieg zum Ausstieg aus dem wissenschaftlichen Denken"

 [German] rnd.de/promis/dirk-steffens-zu-umgang-mit-corona-und-klimaleugnern-falsch-verblendeten-das-wort-zu-erteilen-J6YHUZ6RX5CH7KFA54AU4UEI54.html

 

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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