I did a quick look at oil trade, to see whether the United States become more independent from Persian Gulf oil and thus probably long-term more disconnected and disinterested as well. The statistics don't support this guess, but their look in diagram format is nevertheless striking (and odd):
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| data from U.S.Energy Information Administration |
sources:
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The spikes are either summer or winter.
ReplyDeleteIf the Middle East was suddenly gone, the elasticity is such that oil prices would double.
Oligopolic market failure aside, this would require that more than 70% of the global crude oil consumption is by those who could afford a doubled price (in the respective use, after taxes).
DeleteThis is yet to be proved.