2020/08/01

Link drop August 2020

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https://noticias.perfil.com/noticias/opinion/sin-tetas-no-hay-paraiso.phtml
Chainmail is officially back in mainstream. ;-)


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https://9gag.com/gag/arVMj5K

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defence-blog.com/news/army/new-russian152mm-self-propelled-howitzer-unveiled-for-first-time.html

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www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-failure-leadership.html
Normally one should be careful with such things, but it's glaringly obvious that I would have been able to devise a better policy using only OSINT and a few hours of attention per week than this bunch of incompetents and their lying moron cult leader.

I have zero confidence that this bunch of morons would find appropriate, timely and smart answers to a dangerous international crisis. A thing no one needs to be careful about is the diagnosis that my zero confidence is shared by most governments in NATO, by India, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. I can't tell about Australia or the UK, for their prime ministers have already revealed themselves to be all-too similar.

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9gag.com/gag/amvvAod

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The best American anti-tank missile is the Javelin, which is a 1980's design known to Russians since the 1980's, introduced into service in the mid-1990's and I strongly suppose that it would be a terrible disappointment in a European war because of effective countermeasures. The similar (yet conceptually improved) Israeli Spike missile has a lot of sales successes. The German army still hopes to finally purchase relevant quantities of EuroSpike missiles to 'modernise' its anti-tank arsenal.

Now why is this infrared camera head-guided missile concept being treated as state-of-the-art? I strongly suspect because it's the best the Americans have for infantry AT work, and their PR dominates public perceptions on military technology.

Some possible countermeasures to such missiles are figuratively and literally nebulous; quick-deploying multispectral smoke. Here
baesystems.com/en/product/terra-raven-countermeasure-system
is a gold-plated and quite threat-specific countermeasure. Maybe its existence is the kind of argument needed to overcome the risky belief and reliance on IIR-guided ATGMs.

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"Defund the Pentagon [by a mere 10%]: The conservative case"

"Defund the Pentagon [by a mere 10%]: The liberal case"


Context: The Pentagon budget was bloated by much more than inflation + 11% since the last Obama-administration budget.

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Math education for the win!

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defence-blog.com/news/japan-unveils-new-version-of-its-anti-ship-missile-for-first-time.html
It's surprising to me that they did not add an infrared camera sensor for (better) sensor fusion.
The enlarged range appears to be unnecessary, as shipborne air defences don't reach far if not supported by third party (such as AEW) targeting data. Anti-ship missiles have notorious targeting issues at long ranges because even the slow movement of ships (usually 10...15 m/s) allows for much movement and changes of the formation during the time of flight. The ASM-3's supersonic cruise speed reduces the time of flight, but a supersonic cruise requires a hefty price to pay. The missile needs to be much bigger, heavier, more expensive and is heated up by air friction due to the supersonic cruise.
The Russians developed at least one two-stage anti-ship missiles with a subsonic cruise stage and a supersonic terminal stage. This offers the supersonic speed advantages against defences without the costs of supersonic cruise.
I don't see much or any need for extremely long anti-ship missile ranges. 100 km sea skimming cruise is plenty, even assuming that 30 km or so are for course corrections and repeated approaches after falling for false targets.

A mix of supersonic and subsonic (which would tend to fly a few metres lower*) terminal approach speed and also different sensors makes sense in an arsenal because of uncertainty about what works best.

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By the way; I missed to announce the passing of a milestone. The blog has now over 10,000 comments (it's about 10,250).

S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

*: Radar physics are tricky. It's not necessarily better to fly those few metres lower, but having the option is nice to have, especially if the missile has an X/Ku band  radio receiver.
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6 comments:

  1. Is your comment about Australia about our security situation or about our coronavirus response.

    Our security plans are changing because we don't trust Mr Trump - we just dispensed with the 10 year warning, and are now ramping up short lead items like manufacturing more missiles here.

    As to coronavirus our three levels of Government have cooperated. Our deaths just went over 200 because of a second wave in one city. 1/4 of the Australian population in now under stage 4 lockdown - curfews etc. The federal Government announced its part of paid pandemic leave and to keep wage subsidies going.

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    1. It's more than that. Think the bushfires or how heavily he leans on Murdoch media support, for example.

      Delete
  2. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-makes-its-position-on-china-clear-in-ministerial-meeting-with-us/

    This is an article detailing the differences between the US and Australia on China.

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  3. We have been a favoured isle, with many natural advantages for many decades, but we have not seen the conflation of global, economic and strategic uncertainty now being experienced here in Australia and in our region since the existential threat we faced when the global and regional order collapsed in the 1930s and 1940s. This is a sobering thought, and it’s something that I have reflected on quite a lot lately as we’ve considered the dire economic circumstances we face.

    That period of the 1930’s has been something that I have been revisiting on a very regular basis, and when you connect both the economic challenges and the global uncertainty, it can be very haunting. But not overwhelming. It requires a response.

    The Honourable Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister of Australia, 01 July 2020

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  4. First of all congratulations for 10.000 comments. I'd like to hear your opinions on 2 topics as I realy like your insight on political topics.
    1- What are your views on Europe-Turkey relationship after Erdogan? Recently, I have been reading about their politics and it seems none of the possible successors of Erdogan are islamists.
    2- I am also curious about your estimation on the ultimate result of China-Taiwan confrontation. In my opinion, Taiwan is doomed. I don't think any country is going to risk a war against a nuclear triad country for an entity they don't even recognise as a sovereign state.

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    1. 1 - Turkey gets hardly mentioned any more. I think they get largely ignored nowadays, but maybe it's just me not paying attention.
      2 - The Americans are nuts. Never say never. I suspect the Chinese play a long game regarding Taiwan, though. Taiwan's economy is already so much linked to continental factories that they are hardly economically independent any more.
      China may also work to infiltrate and corrupt the political parties and the media over time.

      They haven't applied military force abroad in a brutish way since their 1979 embarrassment along Vietnamese border.

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