2021/05/22

Pemanent minorities

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There is an issue with democracies that I touched upon a few times: 

/2017/10/overlapping-territorial-sovereignty.html

/2017/06/middle-east-and-democracy.html

The peaceful transition of power after a change of majority in an election (or even only after different parties forming a different coalition) is at the core of any democracy. The existence of permanent majorities and permanent minorities turns this feature moot.

A minority that's so very separated from the majority that it can never form a coalition with parts of a present majority in order to become part of a future majority has little reason to consider democracy's majority rule concept anything but permanent oppression.

This happens a lot in areas with strong tribal or sectarian divisions such as Africa or the Mid East. 

The most elegant solution is to achieve assimilation by the majority, but there are some tribes that maintained their separation for thousands of years (Samaritans, for example), and other minorities are so visibly different from the majority (Chinese-origin mountain people in Thailand, Whites in South Africa et cetera) that there's little hope of present minority and present majority feeling as one anytime soon short of extraterrestrials landing on earth with hostile intent.

The Western countries typically have ideological divisions rather than religious or ethnic ones, so I was very surprised to find an example of such a permanent minority problem undermining the perception of democracy's legitimacy in a (supposedly) Western country:

boingboing.net/2021/05/20/seven-rural-counties-in-oregon-have-voted-in-favor-of-seceding-to-idaho.html

My first reaction was to think of those wannabe separatists as immature crybabies who should learn that as an adult you can't always have your way. Then I realized that they believe that others will always have their way over them.

There's no doubt that the rural people there would be just fine permanently dominating the urban people, as can be observed in more rural American states without the cityfolk turning into separatist crybabies, but this doesn't change that this is a very, very dangerous undermining of democracy's legitimacy.

A deviation from plain majority vote towards a constitution with proportional governance (some offices reserved for rural people, de facto veto powers for both factions) might help, but this is a different case from religious or ethnic separations. Religious divisions in a proportional governance would arrive at a minimum consensus on religion-affected topics and ethnic divisions would arrive at a proportional allocation of resources or no gifts to either group as policy. The rural/urban divide in the U.S. is rather a divide between people who live in fear&hate fantasyland and social democrats. Almost nothing can get done if both had veto powers over the other all the time. Government would be paralyzed, on autopilot, completely incapable of rising to any challenge.

So ideological divisions may be able to become so bad that they create even worse dysfunctionality than ethnic or religious divisions, with subsequent worse delegitimization of a republic. 
 
The worst about this is that a common external enemy is a simple fix to cover up internal divisions. Wars might be risked or even waged to fight the national disunity. This worked a couple times in history (at least for short periods), and failed spectacularly in others (see Austria-Hungary).

7 comments:

  1. The Evangelical vote for the Republicans also makes this a religious issue with "Trump the saviour" narratives.
    I doubt it's just the Republicans who live in fantasyland. They are hurt by policies and Democrats often don't realize how their policies are part of the causes. The loss of the middle ground creates two voter spheres out of touch with each other and immune to reality.

    In terms of unity thru war, Iran is still on the list and the conflict with China is looming, because of the Chinese promise to achieve reunification with Taiwan by any means within a specified time period.
    Each of these could be sold as a major struggle of the country, but I do have doubts wars by a small volunteer military have the same unifying effect as a war waged by conscripts from all walks of life.
    A conscript army would be a wide communication across the usual boundaries, a professional army is on a national level just a few big celebrations. I consider that far less effective for the communication of divisive national issues. This would be different if the US was invaded, its people being displaced and jointly suffering hardships. The coming natural disasters thru climate change have in my opinion more of a potential to bridge the divide.

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  2. "My first reaction was to think of those wannabe separatists as immature crybabies who should learn that as an adult you can't always have your way."

    "...but this doesn't change that this is a very, very dangerous undermining of democracy's legitimacy."

    What is so wrong about people in a certain region deciding freely and democratically, that they don't want to be part of a larger nation, that they feel doesn't act in their best interest, like in Catalonia or Scotland?

    Although granted, in the Oregon example, they could simply move to the east, if they really wanted to be citizens of Idaho, instead of having to build a new nation from scratch.

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    1. This is unlike ethnic separatists. They want to secede because their party doesn't win elections in their state, but they would be completely fine with permanently ruling over supporters of the other party (as in Idaho).
      Their behaviour is not about wanting a nation state, it's about disrespecting democracy and that the other party might legitimately be in power as well.

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    2. The problem with this kind of self-determination is a country belongs to all of its citizens equally. A people of a region may want to give up their rights on the rest of their country but do the rest want to give up their rights on the region that wants to separate? For example, currently, all Spanish citizens can live in Catalonia if they want it but they wouldn't be able to do that without going through the immigration process if Catalonia secedes. Also, there would be massive economic effects on the rest of Spain too. So no. Catalonians cannot decide such a matter on their own.

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  3. Hiving lived with these goobers for thirty years, the saddest part of this comedy is the utter terror the state government in Boise must feel even considering the possibility that this idiotic proposal might be a reality.

    These counties are among the poorest and most depopulated in Oregon. Gilliam, one of them, tried to dissolve itself several years back because it couldn't pay for things like road repair and sheriff's deputies, hoping that the state would take over. Without the economic engine that is the Willamette Valley between Portland and Eugene "greater Idaho" would look like Kyrgystan after a decade.

    So this is not only an insult to the idea of popular sovereignty, it's bone-stupid politically and economically, as well.

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  4. And I should add that the main reason that the people in these places are so cranky is that the Oregon GOP went Full Tea Party long before there was an actual Tea Party and since then have gone all-in Trumpkin. The GOP has become utterly toxic to anyone not completely QANut/Threepercenter/Wingnut/Tax-avoider. One of the biggest reasons that they are "oppressed" is that their utterly Gilded-Age-working-towards-medieval "policies" (what they have left of them that isn't just screeching about Drag Queen Story Hour...) lost them the should-be-conservative bedroom communities in places like Beaverton and Oregon City.

    But did this convince these conserva-tankies to moderate their policies? Nope. Instead they came up with this looney scheme.

    The stupid. It burns.

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    1. one example
      https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/06/days-before-rep-mike-nearman-helped-protesters-breach-capitol-he-coached-constituents-just-how-hed-help-them-do-it.html

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