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economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092
First rule of starting a civil war as government:
Make sure you win. Quick.
Second rule of starting a civil war as government:
You cannot meet the first rule if you start a war against the majority of your own army officer corps.
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Back in May 2018 I wrote about hypothetical ultralightweight infantry equipment and still arrived at a heavy load. One of the measures to cut weight was to ditch the full-blown CBRN mask in favour of a "hypothetical escape hood-style lightweight NBC mask with one filter" with an estimated weight of 500 grams.
Well, I wasn't too far off; the Avon CH15 is available at 508 grams since earlier this year and its bulk seems tolerable for all-the-time carry, unlike ordinary CBRN masks.
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news.northwestern.edu/stories/2021/10/protective-fabric-chemical-biological/
I remember that the "more performance, more performance, more performance" crowd that doesn't pay attention to weight dreamt of regular soldier clothes becoming NBC protection clothes since at least the 1990's. Regular long-time use NBC protection suits (I don't mean the simplistic overgarments or rubberised suits) are rather meant for no more than 24 hrs of continuous use IIRC.
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Little remark about the summit to moderate climate change:
It's fashionable in certain countries to talk about climate change as a national security threat. That's bollocks, of course. People are talking like this in some countries because those countries are rather militaristic. To frame a challenge as somehow military-ish or equivalent to military defence/defense is in such countries a path to gain attention and to motivate. In some (militaristic) countries it's a lot easier to mobilise 0.1% GDP additional spending for some additional military expenditures than to invest in health, infrastructure or education or to help disabled or poor people. Only stupid people copy such rhetoric in non-militaristic countries, and then get hardly any attention for it. It's quite a litmus test IMO.
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gcaptain.com/fire-fire-fire-how-navy-failures-destroyed-the-uss-bonhomme-richard/
Compare #4 here.
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oryxspioenkop.com/2021/10/the-cargo-cleared-for-print-uae-wartime.html
WTF could be the UAE's interest except earning money??? I don't know of ANY link between the Ethiopian government and the UAE that would matter.
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politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/23/colin-powell-foreign-policy-expansionist-advice-516795
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thesovietarmourblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/soviet-atgms.html
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dw.com/en/rwandas-military-intervention-in-mozambique-raises-eyebrows/a-58957275
bbc.com/news/world-africa-58079510
africanews.com/2021/08/09/rwanda-military-says-it-has-helped-mozambique-retake-mocimboa-da-praia//
bbc.com/news/world-africa-58783030
ft.com/content/6ab0712b-2bc2-45dc-a681-452c62dff76e
I've heard good things about the Rwandan army's proficiency before, and Rwanda's government has been making visible progress on some other areas as well.
They might have the highest quality military in the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa.
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oryxspioenkop.com/2021/10/german-drones-in-ethiopia.html
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sa4x4.co.za/svi-max-3-the-bulletproof-land-cruiser-79/
techeblog.com/svi-max-3-troopy-toyota-land-cruiser-79-armored-vehicle/
tuningblog.eu/en/kategorien/autos-von-a-z/svi-max-3-309662/
A bulletproofed armoured car or APC for about 100,000 Euros.
One of the many existing third axle conversion kits for the base vehicle could easily extend the APC version to 2+8 seats plus have some other military-suitable modifications and the price would still be no worse than about 150,000 Euros bulk price per copy.
Compare this to the common procurement of 4x4 4-seat armoured vehicles of not much better protection for 400,000+ Euros that even some of the poor European countries had in the past two decades.
The current JLTV has comparable utility (and no doubt more protection, but does that difference really matter? How often would it encounter threats that B7 protection doesn't ward off as well?) It costs around 250,000 Euros in bulk purchase, but can cost twice that in small numbers.
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This PDF is remarkable because it shows radar imagery of ships. The actual capabilities are likely not much greater than advertised. Imaging radar (synthetic aperture radar mode) can create imagery of ships that allows to discern between a freighter and a frigate, but you could not reliably tell one frigate class from another.
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boingboing.net/2021/10/05/unbreakable-glass-developed-say-researchers.html
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sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914717300600
Could be used to defeat hard kill active defence suites
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ukdefencejournal.org.uk/classified-tank-specs-leaked-on-war-thunder-game-forums-again/
AGAIN
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| Imagine this appearing over some battlefield in some African backwater region, accompanied by a fitting sound show! |
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therecord.media/windows-10-ios-15-ubuntu-chrome-fall-at-chinas-tianfu-hacking-contest/
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| Huh? I guess I have to correct my dictionary with a pen till I get a revised edition. |
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[German] heise.de/news/Plaene-fuer-deutschen-Weltraumbahnhof-nehmen-langsam-Gestalt-an-6183302.html
Das ist Unsinn für alle Orbitalsatelliten. Je näher an den Äquator, desto besser. Wenn man eine nationale Lösung haben will, dann baut ein Spezialschiff (Start) und mindestens ein Unterstützungsschiff (ggf. zwei wenn man mit wiederverwendbaren Raketen auf einem Schiff landen will) bzw baut welche um. Dann schließt man einen Kooperationsvertrag mit einem Land am Äquator (zum Beispiel Sao Tomé und Principe; schön harmlos, stabil und geographisch isoliert gegen Probleme in der Nachbarschaft) am Atlantik, sodass man die Raketen günstig per Schiff dorthin schaffen und am Äquator starten kann. Das geht dann mit Nutzung von Unterkünften, Büros und Flughafen an Land. Wenn die Kooperation mit dem Partnerland schlechter wird, kann man den Partner einfach wechseln, die aufwändige Infrastruktur ist ja auf den Schiffen beweglich. Allerschlimmstenfalls startet man von europäischen Gewässern aus.
"National" bedeutet nicht unbedingt "daheim".
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[German] heise.de/news/Bundeswehr-Generalinspekteur-will-weg-von-anfaelliger-Militaertechnik-4919585.html
Im Kontext des Funkgeräte-Megaskandals erscheint dieser alte Artikel in einem neuen, bitter-sarkastischem Licht.
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Now looking at the size of this thing it seems I tried to fool myself with that whole "only one blog post per week" approach anyway. I'd have created four or more blog posts out of all this stuff before I started the "first Saturday of month link dump" series.
S O
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The Ethiopian situation makes me wonder whether one side or the other has closer ties with the US or China and we see proxy conflicts.
ReplyDeleteHow does this claimed Islamist rebel group in Mozambique get their weapons and ammunition and why on earth would they claim allegiance to the Islamic state if this increases the willingness to fight them?
One of the links claimed that the rebels in Mozambique took the weapons from the government forces.
DeleteAlso keep in mind they had a civil war till 1992, so likely lots of weapons still around, and you can dig up explosives from some fields. They're even marked for that.
To get weapons from government forces, these are either deeply corrupted and sell them or the insurgents had a plan and some weapons to start with. My problem is groups with allegiance to IS, al Qaeda or another Islamic emirate sprout like mushrooms all over the Muslim world. I suspect that behind them are networks that finance, arm and train them in military and intelligence operations and such a claim of allegiance establishes contact to one such network. This is why I wonder where they get the ammunition for their captured government weapons, because captured weapons aren't that likely to come with a stockpile sufficient to train troops and run a war. I suspect they are a node in a network that trains them for more competence than your usual African government force. It's rarely reported, but I found mention of Christian militias countering such Muslim units in parts of Africa.
DeleteWouldn't it be a lot more effective to simply read the links rather than guessing?
DeleteI read the links that aren't behind a paywall and I find some information on the story is missing.
Delete"There is broad agreement that the uprising was begun by young people without jobs protesting about growing poverty and inequality, as well as the lack of any gains from mineral resources including rubies and gas.
DeleteThis is compounded by social injustice - the lack of a voice and abuse by government officials, police and soldiers.
The conflict started with a symbolic attack on Mocímboa da Praia in 2017 and escalated as the young people captured weapons from soldiers and gained local support.
The rebels are called "al-Shabab", which in local language means "the youth" and has no connection to the group of the same name in Somalia.
The conflict zone is majority Muslim, and by 2019 the rebels had made contact with the Islamic State (IS) group.
The US has named them "Isis Mozambique" and designated them a foreign terrorist organisation.
But the insurgents have no real religious message and instead say they are fighting the state.
And they still primarily fight with weapons and vehicles captured from Mozambique's security forces.
The International Crisis Group (IGC) think tank recently said the insurgents had only "tenuous links" with IS and the "real drivers of [this] conflict have more to do with local grievances".
No-one will send soldiers to Mozambique to help it fight hungry locals, but many will support a fight against IS."
I read elsewhere (but could not find the link again) that the Rwandan soldiers repeatedly kept the Mozambican soldiers from stealing. Imagine this; an African army disciplined enough to go abroad and prevent a foreign army stealing from its own nationals.
Yes, but it doesn't explain why they did like other African insurgent groups and contacted IS if this gives them a more formidable opposition. That's the part that makes me wonder.
ReplyDeleteThe Rwandan military gained mining income abroad during the Second Congo War and they had to be quality forces to pull that of against a large coalition of several African nations. EU aid also has a share in the story, because it enabled Rwanda to use its tax income for the military. It's often overlooked how much interstate conflict and the threat thereof improves institutions to perform better, because Rwanda can easily find itself in another such war where they desperately need friendlies.
Stupidity explains most stupid actions in history.
DeleteYou think the Rwandan army is some kind of mercenary outfit that draws from war experience? Maybe, but that doesn't explain the discipline.
AFAIK the Rwandan army goes back to the Tutsi, the wealthier and better-educated part of society. It's basically drawing from a manpower pool of much higher average and median quality than other armed forces at least in regard to officers.
Keep in mind how badly stunted humans can be after a bad/poor childhood.
https://tinyurl.com/stuntedDF
Now imagine an army of non-stunted individuals on a continent of 90+% stunted individuals.
Good point about growth and nutrition.
DeleteI am gonna say it. The American desire of global domination, and militarism is an existential threat to humankind. I bet economic consequences are why China is not taking Taiwan right now. They long had the economic capability to build a powerful enough military to take the island despite US intervention, if they don't have it already. And they were okay with the current situation.
ReplyDeleteJust look at what happened at the SCS despite all those FONOPS. China put islands and militarized them despite everything while the US Navy readiness rates and retention plunged because of over deployment.