2025/02/18

Appropriate demands for peace talks in the RUS-UKR war

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I've seen some stupid takes on what Russia and Ukraine should negotiate about. So let's write about that.

 

Appropriate points for negotiations are:

(1) Russian armed forces withdraw from Ukraine's territory (as of 2013) within 7 days

(2) Russia recognises the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine (as of 2013)

(3) Russia hands over all minefield maps regarding the Ukrainian territory

(4) All persons who UKR considers to be POW in Russian hands have to be repatriated within 14 days.

(5) All UKR-identified abducted children have to be repatriated within 14 days of UKR demanding it (could be years later) 

(6) Russia has to pay reparations equal to UKR loss of GDP relative to trend path PLUS Ukrainian increases of military spending during invasion 2014 - date of peace treaty relative to 2013 military budget PLUS 200 billion € (for damage done)

(7) Russia has to withdraw all armed personnel from Moldova (Transnistria)

Further appropriate (though not necessary) points for negotiations are:

(8) Destruction of the Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M bombers save for a handful thoroughly demilitarised museum pieces

(9) Demilitarisation of the Russian oblast bordering on Ukraine

(10) Russia recognising the sovereignty and internationally recognised borders of all other CIS countries

(11) Payment of reparations through transfer of seized Russian assets abroad, in USD/EUR/JPY/CHF in annual (inflation correcting) rates for the next 30 years, ten years of steady natural gas deliveries in yearly amount of Ukraine's consumption in 2013 valued at the price it paid for Russian gas in 2013 (no inflation correction)

(12) Russia accepts that the treaty about Russian use of Sevastopol for its navy is voided

(13) Russia  recognises the Holodomor genocide committed by the Soviet government (capital Moscow) against the Ukrainian people 

(14) Russia permits all ethnic Ukrainians and Tatars to move to Ukraine including their wealth

(15) Russia accepts repatriation of all voluntary Russian passport holders in Ukraine

Nice to have:

(16) Demilitarisation of Kaliningrad Oblast

(17) Ban on Russian warships in the Black Sea

(18) Russian withdrawal of armed Personnel from Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) 

(19) Russia returns all captured heavy equipment to Ukraine (to avoid war propaganda shows)

(20) Russia is banned from having airborne ground forces

(21) Russia is banned from having surface target missiles of 100...5.000 km range for 25 years

(22) Russia reimburses the foreign countries who assisted Ukraine for their deliveries to Ukraine (not for domestic capacity building)

(23) Russia reimburses the foreign countries who had expenses for war refugees due to this war 

(24) Russia joins the cluster ban convention (destruction of all covered cluster munitions within 6 months) and permits international inspections to verify its compliance with it

 

Ukrainian bargaining chips are:

(1) occupied Kursk Oblast territory (though it's of symbolic size)

(2) whether, when and which sanctions of Russia end

(3) when Russian POWs will be released

(4) continuing attacks to collapse the Russian economy (especially attacks on and sabotage of oil refineries)

(5) threat of advance on the ground

(6) threat of commerce raiding Russian maritime commerce with auxiliary cruisers with European help

 

Acceptable locations for the negotiations: Switzerland, Ukraine

 

War losers don't gain territory or  reparations.

Aggressors should not be rewarded with territory or reparations.

The Russian Federation is both aggressor and (soon) loser in this war.


Framing the conversation matters. It's irresponsible to let Russians or American idiots frame the discussion on how a peace settlement should look like.



S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de
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15 comments:

  1. Not to be a negative nancy but I don't think much of this will happen... however just for fun, lets add some points :D

    - all Russians in Kaliningrad will be removed and given homes elsewhere in Russia, after which the Oblast will be returned to Germany

    - The Sakhalin Islands will be returned to Japan

    - The territory captured from Finland during the Winter War/Continuation War will also be returned after removal of Russians

    - Putin must be handed over to the Hague

    - Russia must officially adopt a nuclear no first use policy


    Anyone else think of some other nice things?

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    1. No demands for ethnic cleansing here!

      We're not like the lying moron.

      Besides; demilitarised Kaliningrad Oblast basically means that there would be almost no population in 20 years, it's de facto an island if the EU says so, after all.

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  2. That's an unrealistic wish list.

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  3. Russia should dismantle all it's nukes and the join the NPT

    ReplyDelete
  4. more realistically . the Ukrainian front line collapses before autumn , maybe even before summer , and Russia just drives all the way to the river , cutting off and surrounding whats left of Ukrainian forces still manning parts of a broken front line that can't retreat because they don't have vehicles and Russians have got behind them . then after they occupied almost everything East of Dnipro and now have a easily dependable front line they start negotiations on what happens to the millions of civilians now under Russian control and hundred thousand POWs . Why would Russia negotiate anything now before the capitalize on their stronger position and horrible but successful attrition campaign ?

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    Replies
    1. exactly - why do they participate in negotiations? Maybe because they are using donkeys on the front lines? How fast does a donkey move? Russian assaults now are mostly on foot, you don't do blitzkrieg on foot... I'm not saying all is good on another side...

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    2. The next step is that two waves of Ukrainian drone superiority will impact the front; they overtook RUS on FO drones and they will almost certainly get the machine vision (lock on) thing ready for primetime within 6-18 months.

      Russia is running out of heavy weapons, AFVs and is unable to produce artillery barrels or artillery barrel liners in quantiy. They may move towards 120 mm smoothbore and artillery imports due to their inability to produce artillery in quantity.
      Furthermore, RUS is going to run out of SAMs sooner or later (a shortage of SAMs may be the reason why so many oil refineries already burned).

      The Russian oil & gas sectors are in collapse. Both airlines and rail transportation survive off substance (slowly crumble) due to lack of spare parts.

      Increased European support (if not intervention) is certain.
      Ukraine may still launch a commerce raiding war at sea, destroying Russian maritime trade in the West.

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  5. Well thank you, but how do we pressure Russia into that? and what will orange dictator do? Their policy was avoiding Russian collapse so far...

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    1. The Europeans don't hold UKR back so much from strategic strikes (Scholz is gone in a few weeks).

      So far UKR has priority #1 to avoid defeat (= stabilising the front, which required import of munitions) and priority #2 was to advance towards victory (strategic strikes for political-economic collapse of RUS or kicking invaders out by force).

      Kicking invaders out by force doesn't work so well because the UKR army in not capable of manoeuvre against intact opposition. Striking oil and other industries on the hand is something that UKR is increasingly cpaable of.
      UKR can crash the RUS rail traffic by busting transformer stations along electrifie rail lines (RUS has way too few diesel locomotives to compensate) and by crashing the oil refineries. The RUS air defence is demonstrably unable to stop that.

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  6. Meanwhile in the real world Trump and Co are selling everything to Putin for a stupid prize. If, or when, Ukraine is done (reduced to some western part of it, impoverished and abandonned) well soon it will be how to protect Finland, the Baltics, etc... from constant hybrid attacks and sabotage with Russia using their business as usual (a lot of the Saudi Arabia talks were about economic relations) to pass again from donkeys to modern logistics and APCs. In fact with the F-35 going maybe to India (so Russian can really have a good look) and the fact that many Euros use that plane, controled by the US, they could have it much easier to put in place a no fly zone to ''save'' Kaliningrad from ''nazi danger''. Great times, dystopian times. And I don't think the EU will survive this, some (all the far right movement are pro Trump, pro Putin or both) will go with the new sphere of influences and other with their own regional alliances.

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  7. Sorry but even as someone who is generally on Ukraines side I have to say you are completely delusional.

    Ukraine is in no position to demand the return of the occupied territories, let alone make any demands an what Russia should do with its military in Russia proper.

    That would be equivalent to the Third Reich demanding a return to 1914 borders and a demilitarization of the allies in February 1945.

    So what is the point in building these castles in the sky that will never become reality anyway?

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    Replies
    1. Read the last sentence in the blog post.

      And the WW2 analogy is a very poor one. The situation is more comparable to ~1986 Iraq-Iran War.

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  8. And WHO is going to enforce these maximalist demands on Russia????

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    Replies
    1. You need to read properly to understand a text.

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