Finally, some reason for pride

.

Now I'm proud.

symbol picture for "proud".
Don't laugh - find a better one!

I predicted at the Small Wars Council and Blog website (with alias "Fuchs"*) that the Mali intervention would

 

(1) be about the French conducting a quick campaign,

(2) it would rout the rebels,

(3) in the South,

(4) and the French wouldn't be dumb enough to care much about the desert settlements from where the trouble originated, leaving this to the Africans instead.

It seems I was correct (so far)!**

I didn't claim so here, in part because I attempt to keep the small wars theme low on my own blog.

This is about the first time I get a conflict "right", i.e. predicting how it will go. I didn't expect the Kosovo air War to last for so long and turn so much towards stupid, I didn't expect the Taliban to fold so quickly in 2001, I didn't predict the Iraqis to put up no substantial resistance even in closed terrain in 2003, nor did I expect it to turn into a quagmire as it did.

So finally I got something right in advance about an actual conflict, and it really doesn't surprise me that this was a conflict in which light mechanised, armoured reconnaissance-like, troops played a major role. It has turned into my area of speciality since 2008 due to my research.

_______________

To do list for the next decade:

(1) more money
(2) more women
(3) more wine
(4) more songs
(5) more power
(6) get book finished before 2014
(7) parachuting license
(8) learn to anticipate stupid leadership's actions, too.

I'm kidding.One point is out of reach.

S Ortmann

*: Don't expect to find much interesting stuff of mine written there; I have lower standards for posts in forums and comments elsewhere than for my blog.

**: Meanwhile, the usual whining about how the French lack this or that big toy for the intervention or may be overstretched was quite widespread in some places. As if such an intervention was about whether one has big toys or not. The public perception of military affairs has been taken over by the hardware-centric folks.

2013-03-10 edit: By now the French did make me wrong on (4) by actually going to the North, but they're still making relatively easy progress with no soldiers killed in action.

.