"Arming for deterrence"

July 19, 2016

That's a report on deterrence and defence needs of Poland in particular, but also the Baltics.

I haven't read all of it yet, but it appears to be overly focused on Poland, as if Poland itself was a realistic target for invasion and annexation. Such a focus appears to be typical of most reports and articles on NATO Eastern frontier security. For example, I myself mostly wrote about implications for the German army, RAND did a U.S.Army-focused piece.
Inevitably, ever such focused piece can at most be satisfactory to the target audience (RAND satisfying the interests of its client, the U.S. military, for example).



  1. Nothing new or special. The only part that I found interesting was the one with territorial forces and how they should be used. While Sweden has good system for the Home Guard battalions but they're awfully lightly armed even for light infantry. The battalion is about 500 strong which doesn't provide very significant fighting capability and equal in manpower to two Finnish jäeger companies designed and equipped for dispersed battle.

  2. Hi there, I'm a first time poster, recently stumbled upon your blog. It is a very interesting read, thanks for doing this!

    I read a lot of articles over this matter after the initial RAND report regarding the defense of Baltic states. However, Russians have the nasty habit of strike where one does not expect and as it looks South (which is really the soft belly of Russia) may be soon targeted: Moldova, Nagorno-Karabah/Turkey. Black Sea is a paramount objective for Russia and deny European access to gas / oil (from Azerbaidjan or Iran) which would bypass Russian interests is the main goal.

    Defense in Northern part of Europe requires mostly a classical approach while support for energy related policies in South require much more flexibility especially considering the instability of Turkey and its questionable future within NATO.

  3. Poland is a realistic target in case of a case Balticum. I would try to close and expand the gap as a Russian.

    Would also be handy for negotiations.

  4. Perhaps just an acceptance that the Baltics are already lost