Just so foreign readers take notice; there are kinda official rumours about an enlargement of the German military with planning horizon 2032 or so. These rumours follow a change in long term federal budget plans that points at growing military spending. A reorientation towards collective deterrence is obviously the current fashion, though I doubt that this is instead of the great power games like the Mali mission. Judging by the current minister I and what remarks and attitudes have become known I would rather expect the serious collective deterrence thing to be an addition rather than mostly a change of direction. Such a military expansion would also have the ugly side effect that we'd be better equipped for participation in bollocks like the invasion of Iraq in 2003.*
The info is unspecific and not definitive (all of those plans may become meaningless this autumn because of elections) and what few details have been given don't sound particularly realistic (for example way too many artillery battalions planned).
This is no news blog, so I won't write much about these rumours at this early stage.
Those who can read German may want to read the "Augen geradeaus!" blog's posts on the topic if they didn't do so yet:
http://augengeradeaus.net/2017/04/langfrist-planung-bundeswehr-mit-mehr-faehigkeiten-zur-buendnisverteidigung/
http://augengeradeaus.net/2017/04/neue-schwere-heeresstruktur-mehr-artillerie-27-zusaetzliche-bataillone/
S O
*: That,'s also an ugly side effect of my proposals, of course.
What matters more in this context is the minister's attitude to such great power games. The minister did not yet learn the lesson that Chancellor Merkel learnt in the wake of the invasion of Iraq and thus should be considered a chickenhawk.
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The most interesting part in this plans for me is the "schwerpunkt" in artillery, most new Bataillons would be artillery-bataillons. The plan is to grow the current 3 german artillery bataillons to a number of 14, which means 11 complete new bataillons.
ReplyDeleteCompletly unclear is with which personal, with which systems and with wich timeframe this weat dreams are thougt. To increase the size of the artilley in a decade for such numbers will be extreme difficult in the current situation in germany.
I suppose the artillery could only be equipped with PzH 2000 or AGM, for there are few usable munitions for MARS due to the cluster munitions ban and 155 mm is the NATO standard arty gun calibre.
DeleteThe personnel cannot really be found without use of conscription or other drastic changes. We could comb out the needed officers from other places, and maybe recruit men for NCO jobs (not necessarily good NCO talents), but the enlisted personnel requirements would be a too formidable challenge.
It's disappointing to see that the proposed reorientation plan is first and foremost about more personnel and more budget, not about reducing the difference between nominal and real strength in personnel and equipment or about reasonable reorganisations away from cost-inefficient rotary aviation, marginally useful special forces (other than Fernspäher), marginally useful navy and almost deterrence-irrelevant transport aviation.
There's so much nonsense that could be cut to mobilise personnel and funds, instead they propose to add to what we have. That's primitive and almost as bad as the sick if not outright corrupt joke of the additional corvettes.
The other option would be 105mm light artillery guns like the British and Americans use. Reading the Augen Gerade Aus post it looks like a plan for a new "Light" division, so a towed light gun or a wheeled 155 like the French Ceasar.
DeleteOf course the Heavy Divisions will probably get more Pzh2000's.
We didn't use 105 mm artillery in a long time, and there's no indigenous 105 mm gun offered while 155 mm gun is being offered. Germany as a net arms exporter refuses to do offset deals (some such deals went sour, such as the substandard Turkish shells of the 1960's). This means foreign material is roughly twice as expensive as indigenous material (due to no taxes flowing back).
DeleteBTW, AGM could be loaded on a MAN 15 ton 8x8 lorry with outriggers.
Please note that I said "like" not "this exact gun," and it not being used in a long time isn't something that means it's off the table. For example the Heer has not been expanded in a long time, and yet it seems to be happening.
DeleteDo I think Germany would ever buy the L118 or L119 or Caesar? No I don't. Do I think a native design filling a similar role might be produced? Yes. As you so helpfully pointed out, an AGM on a MAN truck would fill the same niche as the Ceasar 155, so that would be worth considering in my opinion.
One major problem for every future expanse of the numbers is the strange structure of the ranks in the current german armed forces and the strict and very stiff judicial fundaments that are responsible for this, especially the salary law and the civil service law which influence the structure of the ranks, the payment and the possibilities in the Bundeswehr extremly.
ReplyDeleteAlso there are to many NCOs and to many Officers in the Bundeswehr. The rank and file are actully fewer than 30 % of the force (i heared rumors that they are down to 25 %). NCOs are around 55 % and officers around 20 % and climbing.
Every strengthening of the numbers will make this worse in my opinion and will lead to problems in recruting, payment and carriers in the bundeswehr.
There are a gret many issues that cannot be solved by increasing personnel targets, increasing budgets or recruiting videos.
Deletehttps://www.wsj.com/articles/german-arms-makers-go-on-the-offensive-aided-by-military-spending-boost-1493035201
ReplyDeleteGAB
That's paywalled even though it's no exclusive article.
Deletehttp://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/04/24/german-arms-makers-go-on-offensive-aided-by-military-spending-boost.html