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This episode of counterviolence breeds counterviolence is part of an ongoing conflict that's older than my mom. It's kind of not really interesting, just noise of tragedy.
I see only one hot fix that would work for Israel, and that's sweeping Gaza with hundreds of thousands of troops to weaken Hamas before handing it over to Fatah (their political opponents who control the non-occupied parts of West Bank). Fatah regaining power in Gaza like that would lead to its long-term demise, though.
The pursuit of a two-state solution has failed to deliver on its promise and is an obsolete approach in my opinion. Obsolete or not, a failing poly should be replaced by a more promising one.
Suppose there are two children on the schoolyard taunting and brawling every school day, and have done so for years. I understnad it's fashionable to sit down to talk to them, mediate, talk, tlak, talk.
A more classical (and in my opinion more promising) approach is to not give a s*!t about their opinions and simply enforce the rule that everyone on the schoolyard has to be peaceful, or else will be sanctioned so much that he/she/it regrets to not have been peaceful.
It's time to stop talking to Arabs and Israelis, and to stop hosting talks between them. It's about time they learn to OBEY. They need to obey international law, or be made to regret it. There's almost no prospect that the cycle of counterviolence will end for good just because the involved parties suddenly get nice.
Sadly, the U.S. with its veto power in the UNSC is the main (possibly only) obstacle to this.
The UN(SC) should MANDATE that Egypt takes over Gaza and meets its responsibility to ensure there won't be any attacks on israel from Egyptian (including Gaza) soil. Extremely severe and ten-year sanctions against these countries should commence in 12 months if the UNSC hasn't confirmed their satisfactory compliance until then. Egypt would later be held responsible for every aggression from its soil, just as any country should be held responsible for such a thing.
Ideally, the same should be done regarding Jordan (West Bank) and Syria (Golan Heights), with Blue Helmet (MP, MI and CivMil, not combat troops) support.
Israeli military security concerns about having Egyptian military nearer to Tel Aviv and Syrian military on great vantage points on Golan Hieghts carry ZERO weight, just as Russian desires to have vassal states between itself and NATO carries zero weight.
There's hardly any Syrian conventional warfare military left, hardly any Jordanian military and the Egyptian military will freeze when the U.S. stops subsidising it. Meanwhile, everybody knows that Israel is a nuclear power with a quite robust 2nd strike capability and all of itself is within range of precision-guided missiles nowadays (which devalues depth). So security concerns about reestablishing the 1949 borders are not very substantial anyway.
Maybe if Germany hadn't such a useless, timid, worthless chancellor we could be part of the solution. A charismatic, fluent English-speaking and decisive German chancellor could pressure POTUS Biden through public diplomacy and behind closed doors diplomacy to not veto a 1949 borders restablishment UNSC resolution that mandates Egypt to take over Gaza and establish security. The time for this is perfect. There are many ways how POTUS could be pressures behind the scenes. Germany could threaten to kick out all American troops without giving them time to set up a replacement for Ramstein, it could threaten to leave NATO*, threaten to sabotage U.S. foreign policy in many ways.
That would require a non-fossilised, action-oriented chancellor, though. You can't have any good results with a worthless potatoe. I respect the office of the chancellor, I do not respect the person AT ALL. he should rot in jail for defalcation in the CumEx scandal.
The politicians we have can only think in old narratives and thier only actions are about spending money.
Their inaction thorugh three generations of crisis in the Levante KILL people, just as their inaction in the Mediterranean migration crisis KILLs people.
S O
*: Germany is not threatened itself, is also in the EU alliance and there's no such thing as accumulated obligation to stay in an alliance. We can leave the North Atlantic Treaty at will, within a year (see its article 13).
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Egypt doesn't want Gaza. Jordan doesn't want the West Bank. Israel should carry out the two state solution, which would be a victory for Fatah.
ReplyDeleteI expect Israel to have some new ideas for urban combat, heavily utilizing drones. What do you think?
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ReplyDeletedeleted for denying the sovereignty of Germany
Delete>Egypt takes over Gaza and meets its responsibility to ensure there won't be any attacks on israel from Egyptian (including Gaza) soil
ReplyDeleteEgypt: lol no, if Germans desire it, let them do it themselves.
Yeah, I have to agree. It seems clear that none of the surrounding Arab states have wanted to take 'ownership' of the problem of preventing Palestinian militants from attacking Israel, over the decades - why would they, as they get nothing out of the deal.
Delete"A more classical (and in my opinion more promising) approach is to not give a s*!t about their opinions[...]"
DeleteYes-yes, send Afrika korps to coerce the Egyptians. Oh, wait, Germans don't have the Afrika korps.
DeleteHamas took German citizens hostage. We can't even liberate our own people. We should be very quiet with suggestions. And how's the evacuation of German citizens out of the looming conflict zone progressing?
ReplyDeleteIt makes no sense to go to war, and it's a bold claim to claim we can't free our citizens when only a few days have passed. They may be freed peacefully once identified.
DeleteI don't think it's the German government's task to provide evacuation from Israel.
Those "German citizens" are also Israeli citizens. Let them handle it. đ
Delete"That would require a non-fossilised, action-oriented chancellor, though."
ReplyDeleteDo you think any candidate from the currently ruling coalition or any other mayor party would meet that criteria and have a chance of being elected?
Because in my impression, any candidate with such traits would never be allowed to raise to a position of power within any of the parties and be branded by the media as dangerous.
On the contrary, for his inaction, the current chancellor has been praised for being "considerate" and "not a cowboy" both by the media and fellow politicians.
Difficult to tell. One would have to look at all those 100+ ministers at state level to be sure about it.
DeleteAustrian painter?
DeleteI am from Jordan. No one here wants to take the West Bank, it would be suicidal. Even without the palästinians are only great problem for jordan. For Egypt taking Gaza would be even more suicidal as the Hamas is the al-ichwÄn al-muslimĹŤn. And the west cannot force us to do so. You talk about internatinonal law, but then you write: the west should not give a shit about our opinion. That is not international law. That is western arrogance and lawlessness. There is not internatinonal law that can force states to take over a territory ! You talk much about law here, but then in the same text you call for breaking all law. You are a typical western hypocrite with double standards. Talking about law but wants to force people against any law to do things against their will if it corresponds to your ideas. So your ideas and your wishes are international law or what ?
ReplyDeleteAlso, althoug i am arab, it is clear that israel was attacked first. It is not so, that israel has attacked, it was attacked. So it has a right to self defence. On the other hand israel should dismantle all settlements in the West Bank and evacuate them completely and then it should regocnize a palästinian state in the west bank. This would bring peace there and it is the fault of israel and stupid to do not so. For gaza i know no solution. So israeli offence now is also no solution and will fail.
You're lying. I didn't write Jordan and Egypt should obey the West. I wrote "UN(SC)".
DeleteThose territories are still Jordan's and Egypt's, and in IL those countries can be held responsible for attacks originating from them.
How fast you are with insults. Instead of insults from myself some facts: The UN(SC) will never give such an order. And even if it would (purely theoretically) it could not give such an order legally. The Westbank is not territory of Jordan, that is a legal fact. It even never was, as the occupation of the westbank for some years through jordan was illegal.
DeleteWhat you are writing here is far from any international law and shows only your lack of knowledge about the legal situation of the westbank.
If something should be done from the so called international community about the West Bank Israel should be forced to recognise an palestinian state there. And the UN(SC) should recognise an palestinian state. But even that will not happen. So much about you illusions about the UN(SC) and your illusions about international law. What you wrote is simply not true, and it will never happen despite the question of the law anyway.
The statement that you lied was not an insult; it was a statement of fact. Don't lie if you cannot bear to be called out on it.
DeleteThere are multiple UN resolutions demanding Israel to withdraw to 1966 borders in effect.
Jordan was accepted into the UN with the annexed West Bank, which I consider a recognition.
Besides, my proposal would not be changed very much if one replaces Jordan with an Arab State. What matters is that there woumd be a country that could be deterred from allowing aggressions originating from its territory.
Then i have to state the fact that you are a lyer, because the UN has never recogniced the temporary annexation of the west bank. No state has ever recogniced that annexation, that is a simple fact. You claimed otherwise, you lied.
ReplyDeleteAnd you overestimate the possibilities of an state to prevent terror attacks from his territory. That has nothing to do with detterence, but with real practical possibilities. Look at the Libanon and still claim, that the state Libanon can be dettered to prevent attacks of the hisbollah. And jordan is also not so stable at it seems. We have many palästinians in our country, if we would take the westbank, this could even lead to an palästinian takeover of jordan and the rule of hamas in the westbank and in jordan.
Nothing what you wrote here makes any sense and all shows onyl your complete lack of knowledge and understanding of the real situation there and also your total lack of knowledge of the legal situation.
Moreover: the palästinians also do not want to be annexed by an other arabian state, and the western arrogance to decide what people have to want and what they have to do seem to know no borders. It is not your right to decide that, it is not the right of the UN(SC) to decide that. The right of self-determination of peoples is violated here, as the palästinians are people, a nation. They are not jordan people, they are not egyptians, the are not saudi-arabians. The right of a people to self-determination is a cardinal principle in modern international law and you would violate it like the israelis do it, only in another way.
But even if you lack any respect for the international law if it does not fit your political agenda, as it seem to be the case with you here, even then no arabian state could prevent further terrorism from its territory against israel. This is not realistic. To the opposite: a annexation of the westbank through jordan would lead to the takeover of jordan through palästinian extremists and an annexation of gaza through egypt would inevitable lead to an takeover of egypt through the muslimbrotherhood.
So all you ideas here would only increase the problem and would only lead to more terrorism, more violence and more war.
UK and Iraq formally recognised the annexation of West Bank by Jordan.
DeleteSo you lied again.
Frankly, you claim to be from Jordan, but you misspell words as if you were a native German speaker.
We already know that you're a liar, so your whole posts are now suspect and I will delete any further comments that I believe to come from you.
Last Dingo:
DeleteYou could also have named the USA (which recognized the annexation with the exception of Jerusalem), or the fact that all Arabs who lived in the West Bank, even under Israeli occupation, were Jordanian citizens until 1988.
Regardless, I can agree with one point here: Egypt will not take over the Gaza Strip and Jordan will definitely not take over the West Bank and there is no way to force these states to do so.
Your statements in the text above that you for example could force Egypt to do this with sanctions are simply quixotic. And even if such sanctions could be implemented - which can never be done through the UN(SC) (veto by Russia and China) - the consequence of these sanctions would only be the Muslim Brotherhood coming to power in Egypt and a huge expansion of the problem.
In my opinion, what you list in your text as a possible solution to the problem is extremely alien and far removed from any political reality.
Boys, boys. Schoolyard escalation from you both. You lied! No you lied! Why are you so attentive to your sensitivities? So unwilling to ignore them and converse about substance only? Such emotional call-and-response exchanges exhibit clearly how wars start from schoolyard poking.
ReplyDeleteI've tried the "show the other cheek" method and it doesn't work.
DeleteMoreover, as editor here I feel to have a responsibility to protect readers against disinformation.