Breakthroughs again

.
The Russo-Ukrainian War is yet again a positional war without 'proper' breakthroughs and exploitations of the same. This is similar to WWI in 1915 and 1916 and the Iraq-Iran War in the 80's.

Breakthroughs would be possible with 2010's tech if enough local superiority was amassed IMO. That's what NATO would fo; bomb a front sector to dust, ghen drive thtough.

Good breakthrough schemes usually unite superior local forces (/effects) a.k.a. superior mass, surprise and speed. Having two of these three factors united may suffice for a breakthrough.

I will here make the case that the Ukrainians and Russians are about to get that effective mass again and will thus SOON be able to break through well-prepared defensive lines again.

But first a word of caution; breakthrough is worth very little if not followed by an effective exploitation of the breakthrough. That was the difference between offensives in 1916-1918 and 1941-1945. 

The Ukrainian artillery munition shortage in 2022-2023 forced them to innovate with drones. They did mostly replay the air warfare innovations of 1915-1917 with small unmanned rotorcraft.

Radio jamming and interferences limited this to the level of harrassment fires, though. You cannot have a thousand drones transmit video feeds simultaneously from one km of front. The signals would interfere. Radio datalink drones cannot do the mass required for a breakthrough.

This finally changed with the successful introduction of fibreoptic datalinks that do not interfere and cannot be jammed and seem to rarely break or be cut.

Western armies had such ddvelopments going on in the 90's and a few such missiles were introduced.

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1832101575634133472?t=nomA2pNeUEDcreXI3fYD1g&s=19

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1831776498526908596?t=0wepU3MZZPUqmQyanTnjUg&s=19

5,000 fibreoptic drones in action on 5 km width and up to 5 km ahead of the attack force, supported by some high vantage point observation drones and battlefield radars could enable a breakthrough even with 1980's equipment and without terribly many artillery shells.

A division of labour between drones could be

a) scouting (even below trees and into buildings, even dugouts)

b) battlefield interdiction (waiting by roadside for vehicles)

c) FPV kamikaze with light warheads

d) de-foliaging and de-netting drones with incendiary spray

d) bombers to drop heavy blast charges into dugout entrances and buildings and on mine barriers

e) fighter-interceptors to counter enemy drones (two versions; high performance and cheap)

f) mine locating drones (mostly thermal camera with magnetic detector for confirmation)

Imagine a kilometres-deep screen of such unjammable drones clearing the path with overwhelming local superiority of numbers.

The next challenge would be 'proper' exploitation.

 
S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de
.