2014/11/13

Newest plans for more GTK/MRAV/Boxer purchases

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Die Bundeswehr plane die Beschaffung von 131 Radpanzern des Typs Boxer, von dem die Bundeswehr bereits mehr als 200 Stück besitzt, berichtet die "Süddeutsche Zeitung" (SZ/Dienstag) unter Berufung auf Industriekreise. Der Auftrag für die achträdrigen gepanzerten Transportfahrzeuge belaufe sich auf 620 Millionen Euro. Allerdings sei die Bestellung noch nicht beschlossen.
"Deutsche Panzerbauer haben Auftrag der Bundeswehr in Aussicht"
FAZ, 4.11.

GTK Boxer prototype
620 million for 131 armoured lorries with gold plating.
4.73 million per armoured lorry with gold plating.
That's € 0.59 million per seat for a dismounting infantryman or an equivalent share of a module.

Do you know what else costs this much per seat?
9 passengers
774 kph speed
3,300 km range
€ 5.1 million (€ 0.57 million per seat)

Those € 5.1 million are the starting point for negotiations. You could surely buy 131 of those for much less than € 5 million each. Well, the Bundeswehr would certainly not; it would gold-plate it till it can barely fly any more and then pay at least € 15 million each.

There are plenty people who look at the vehicle and are impressed. Impressed by all the 'capability' which had been loaded on it (even DPICM protection!). Some are concerned as well - concerned about the cross-country mobility and restrictions concerning bridges.

A look at the hardware alone is nonsense. This is much too expensive; the gains in protection over simple armoured trucks are nowhere near justifying the extra fiscal, logistical and manpower effort. This vehicle is supposed to deliver light infantry (Jäger), and mostly so on administrative marches. It's not even a combat vehicle. It's an omnibus without windows with paranoid protection standards.

There's no reason whatsoever why the Jägertruppe should have a single such vehicle.Why them, only for marches - not for combat? Great many other troops would need to do administrative marches in war zones as well, and this sure is no general standard of protection. Most others move in soft or modestly up-armoured trucks.

Germany doesn't want the insane expense of up-armouring all army vehicles to such a high level, for sure. What's the rationale for giving such vehicles to the Jägertruppe? The one branch that is supposed to be the  one with nature, one with environment, foot-mobile even in difficult terrain.
Not long ago our generals were convinced the Jägertruppe needs to be more oriented towards woodland and combat in settlements, now it's getting equipped with gold-plated lorries that make the then-unusually expensive Fuchs look like a budget solution. Business Jet-level expenses for a rifleman's mobility.
And they're not even the branch that's ticketed to be the fast-moving one.

This insanity and waste of taxpayer money should be stopped. The German army has lost its way; it's lost in the labyrinth of gold plating tunnel vision. The ministry's agency for procurement of military matériel needs to be disbanded in light of this and other failures - and all its executives need be banned form ever having any influence on public spending again.

Instead, this particular planned purchase appears to being pushed by claims that we need this bollocks to counter the nowadays more aggressive Soviets Russians. Bollocks enabled by hysteria. As if these transport vehicles were able to justify their price in Eastern Europe. The means-ends connection doesn't seem to be interesting to people any more, nor is fiscal prudence.

S O
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Die neuesten Pläne für mehr Boxer Anschaffungen

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(An article version in English is available here.)
Die Bundeswehr plane die Beschaffung von 131 Radpanzern des Typs Boxer, von dem die Bundeswehr bereits mehr als 200 Stück besitzt, berichtet die "Süddeutsche Zeitung" (SZ/Dienstag) unter Berufung auf Industriekreise. Der Auftrag für die achträdrigen gepanzerten Transportfahrzeuge belaufe sich auf 620 Millionen Euro. Allerdings sei die Bestellung noch nicht beschlossen.
"Deutsche Panzerbauer haben Auftrag der Bundeswehr in Aussicht"
FAZ, 4.11.

GTK Boxer prototype

620 Millionen € für 131 gepanzerte Wagen mit Goldrand.
4,73 Millionen € je gepanzertem Wagen mit Goldrand.
Das sind 0,59 Millionen € je Sitzplatz eines Infanteristen oder äquivalenten Anteil an einem anderen Modul.

Wisst Ihr was sonst noch so viel je Sitzplatz kostet?
Ein Cessna Citation Jet CJ2+!
Cessna CitationJet, (c) Alan Radecki
9 Passagiere
774 km/h schnell
3,300 km Reichweite
5,1 Millionen € (0,57 Millionen € je Passagier)

Diese 5,1 Millionen € sind eine Verhandlungsbasis. Man könnte sicherlich 131 dieser Flugzeuge für weit weniger als 5 Millionen € je Stück bekommen. Nun ja, außer der Bundeswehr - die würde auf einen Goldrand bestehen und dann bestimmt mindestens 15 Millionen je Stück bezahlen.

Es gibt genug Leute, die den Boxer Panzerwagen anschauen und beeindruckt sind. Beeindruckt von all den 'Befähigungen' mit denen das Design überladen wurde (sogar Schutz gegen Hohlladungsbombletts!). Einige sind auch beunruhight - beunruhigt über die Geländegängigkeit eioes derart schweren Radfahrzeuges und über die Fähigkeit kleiner ländlicher Brücken abseits der von großen LKW frequentierten Straßen.

Ein Blick auf das Gerät alleine ist jedoch Unsinn. Es ist viel zu teuer; der Zugewinn an Schutz gegenüber einem simplen überpanzerten LKW kommt einer Rechtfertigung des zusätzlichen fiskalischen, logistischen und personellen Aufwandes nicht einmal nahe. Dieses Fahrzeug soll in seiner Grundversion leichte Infanterie (Jäger) transportieren - und zwar nicht freiwillig ins Gefecht, sondern v.a. auf Straßenmärschen. Es ist kein Kampffahrzeug! Es ist ein fensterloser Bus mit paranoidem Schutzstandard.

Es gibt keinen guten Grund, warum die Jägertruppe auch nur ein Einziges dieser Fahrzeuge haben sollte. Warum sie, warum nur für Märsche - nicht als echtes Kampffahrzeug? Viele andere Soldaten müssten ebenfalls Straßenmärsche in Kriegszonen durchführen und bekommen ganz sicher nicht dieses paranoide Schutzniveau geboten. Die Meisten würden in ungepanzerten oder gering geschützten Fahrzeugen unterwegs sein.

Deutschland möchte ganz sicher nicht die wahnsinnigen Kosten stemmen, die anfallen würden wenn die ganze Truppe mit solch einem paranoiden Schutzniveau herumfahren sollte. Warum also ausgerechnet die Jägertruppe? Diese Waffengattung soll Eins sein mit der Natur, der Umgebung, sich (relativ) wohl fühlen im Orts- und Häuserkampf - und zu Fuß beweglich sein in jedem Gelände.

Vor nicht allzu langer Zeit hatten wir noch Generäle die überzeugt waren, dass die Jägertruppe sich mehr in Richtung Adaption an Waldgelände und OHK entwickeln müsse, und nun wird sie mit Goldrand-Panzerbussen ausgestattet, die die einst unangenehm ungewohnt teuren Fuchs Mannschaftstransportwagen*  geradezu spottbillig aussehen lassen. Geschäftsreisejet-ähnliche Kosten je Passagier, damit ein Infanterist über Straßen gefahren wird.
Und die Jäger sind nicht einmal eine Waffengattung, die als 'schnelle' Waffengattung besonders viel Wert auf Geschwindigkeit legt.



Dieser Wahnsinn und die Verschwendung von Steuergeldern sollten gestoppt werden. Das Heer ist auf dem Holzweg; Goldrandlösungen für wenige Hundert Soldaten sind verschwenderisch und nahezu irrelevant für den grundgesetzlichen Auftrag und Existenzgrund unserer Streitkräfte.

Das Bundesamt für Wehrtechnik und Beschaffung (BWB), das sich alle paar Monate in der Zeitschrift "Strategie und Technik" selbst beweihräuchern darf, sollte aufgelöst werden angesichts dieser and vieler anderer vom BWB verursachten, mitverursachten oder mitgetragenen Katastrophen. Und jeder dort, der auch nur annähernd etwas zu sagen hatte, sollte auf Lebenszeit auf eine schwarze Liste, damit er nie wieder im Öffentlichen Dienst zu Verschwendung beitragen kann.


Stattdessen wird diese spezielle Beschaffung vermutlich durchgewunken, abgesichert mit blödsinnigen Behauptungen, wie dass die Ukraine-Krise solche Beschaffungen ratsam mache. Schwachsinn getragen von Hysterie. Als ob diese Goldrand-Panzerbusse ihren Aufwand jemals in einem Osteuropa-Szenario rechtfertigen könnten. Wenn es soweit wäre, würden wir eher darüber fluchen, dass wir uns nur ganz wenge leisten wollten, konnten und rasch nachbauen können.
Verhältnismäßigkeit zwischen Aufwand und Nutzen interessiert bei solchem Gerät kaum Einen, ebensowenig wie Sparsamkeit mit Steuergeldern.

S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

P.S.: Dieser Text ist nicht besonders gut geschrieben und der Frustanteil an der Schreibmotivation war auch zu hoch. Die erste Version war übrigens die Englisch, dies hier ist die Übersetzung.
Ich denke jedoch, dass die Leser hier Denkanstöße bekommen, denen sie selbst nachgehen können.

*: Mehr als 200.000 DM waren in den 1970er Jahren noch eine große Menge Geld, und inflationsbereinigt fast auf einer Höhe mit dem Stückpreis des zuvor schon beschafften M113 MTW (Kettenpanzerwagen).
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2014/11/12

Azerbaijan allegedly downed an Armenian military helicopter

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Azerbaijan's defence ministry says its forces have shot down an Armenian military helicopter violating its airspace.
Three crew members were killed in the incident, according to local reports.
The helicopter was flying in the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh, an enclave in western Azerbaijan controlled by ethnic Armenians.

BBC News*, 2014-11-12



related: 2011-08: Territorial disputes

S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

*: I'm not sure why they claim the war began in 1988.
The USSR was still in place at that time.
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How Europe armed for War 1871-1914

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by J.T.Walton Newbold
written in 1916

I'm always amazed by how these people researched such a huge wealth of information within few, often only two, years. Without the internet, even without transatlantic or international phone calls!

S O
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2014/11/11

Sino-Singapore joint training exercise

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" The eight-day exercise in Nanjing, China from Nov 2-9 will involve around 70 personnel each from the SAF and the PLA."

China Defense Blog


I can't tell who's who on such photos because

(a) I don't know those countries' uniforms
and

Singapore is at one gate between Indian and Pacific Ocean, so I suppose such cooperation between these countries should be of interest to people who pay attention to East Asian and Indian Ocean security affairs and geostrategy.

S O
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2014/11/10

[deutsch] Die zwei Gesichter des deutschen Staates beim Thema Verschlüsselung

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(domestic German topic on data security and policy)

Die Bundesregierung hatte mit einer Behäbigkeit auf die Spionageenthüllungen aus dem Snowden-Fundus und ähnlichen Enthüllungen unter Anderem damit reagiert, dass sie die Verschlüsselung von E-Mails zum Normalfall erheben wollte:

Heise.de, Juli 2014

... andererseits ...

Heise.de, November 2014

Der Spiegel/Spiegel Online, November 2014

Das mag nun schlecht koordiniert, disharmonisch klingen. Oder nach Doppelmoral.

Man mag sich auch in Erinnerung rufen, dass die CDU die einzige** große Partei war, die unter Datenschutz in ihrem Wahlprogramm zur Europawahl nicht etwa den Schutz der Privatsphäre verstand, sondern den Schutz der Wirtschaft gegen Wirtschaftsspionage. Und dass der BND unter Bundeskanzleramts-Fuchtel steht und somit unter Kontrolle eines CDU-Ministers.

Wer etwas genauer hinschaut, der mag auch bemerken dass der Exploit von Schwachstellen nur so lange möglich ist, wie diese Schwachstellen nicht veröffentlicht und beseitigt werden.
Die Nutzung oder gar Schaffung von Schwachstellen bedeutet daher, dass der Staat wegschauen würde während wir in unserem Grundrecht auf informationelle Selbstbestimmung verletzt werden können und zudem unser Post- und Telekommunikationsgeheimnis durch in- oder ausländische Straftäter verletzt werden kann.

Das ist ungefähr so, als ob die Regierung den Polizisten Weisung geben würde, nichts zu unternehmen, wenn Knüppel und geladene Pistolen vor einem Fußballstadium auf dem Asphalt liegen.

Letztlich bedeutet JEDE Kenntnis eines SSL Exploits durch den BND ohne rasche Meldung der Schwachstelle an die Softwareentwickler bzw. Serverbetreiber wohl eine Verletzung der staatlichen Schutzpflicht.

In einer gut funktionierenden Demokratie wäre das der Stoff, aus dem Mißtrauensanträge gegen eine Regierung geschmiedet werden. Hierzulande geht die Sache aber irgendwie geradezu unter.

S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

edit: heise.de IT-Sicherheitsgesetz vs. Exploit-Pläne des BND: "Völlig irre"

*: Unter Umständen auch die CSU, deren Programm habe ich damals nicht daraufhin durchleuchtet
**: Zur Frage, opb das der Spionage oder Gegenspionage dient, die der Artikel nicht klar beantwortet: Der BND ist v.a. für Spionage bzw. Informationsbeschaffung zuständig. Für Gegenspionage bzw. Schutzt wären der MAD, Bundesverfassungsschutz und das Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik zuständig. Wenn letztere diese Information bekämen, würden sie sie aber wohl auch zum allgemeinen Schutz verwenden. Zudem bedeutet die Absicht, nur Regierungsrechner schützen zu wollen auch gleichzeitig eine Schutzpflichtverletzung des Staates gegenüber den Privatpersonen.
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How to camouflage a helmet in 2 seconds

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I knew, but also forgot how this (fairly new) procedure is called.
You can do it yourself (the procedure, not the camo) if you want to try it; the procedure is apparently also used to paint fingernails (well, whole fingers and then you scrub the skin clean).
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2014/11/06

Congratulations to the U.S.Navy!

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It's spending taxpayer money on developing an Unmanned Influence Sweep System - a boat drone which is supposed to fool some kinds of naval mines into detonating.* A prototype is supposed to be ready by 2016. This sounds as if the operational capability is hoped for for the 2020-2025 time frame.

____________

The German navy has had this kind of vehicles in service since 1981.

German "Seehund" (seal) remotely operated vehicles

In fact, this kind of vehicle may be obsolete and ineffective already due to the 1980's development of digital signal analysis of acoustic mine fuzes based on sound libraries. And naval offshore minesweeping and minebreaking* has become unreliable in general because of 'smart' mobile mines which would allow a naval minefield to rearrange and thus replace spent mines.
Ships could follow a "cleared" lane with GPS accuracy and could still encounter a naval mine which had still been somewhere else while a mineweeper swept the lane the last time.

S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

*: It's common to apply the terms "minenräumen" / "minesweeping" to this, but it would be more accurate to call it "minebreaking" from the perspective of the drone. "minebreaking" was an uneconomical method of dealing with mines, used only by desperate commanders. The Japanese did it in 1945 (least valuable ships leading the convoy column and thus clearing the path for the others). They had no effective minesweeping technology against magneto-acoustic mines, lagging behind European theatre of war technology. The very rare employment of the minebreaking procedure ensured that the term would largely stay obscure and unknown.

Further official (German) links:  link 1 and link 2

related
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2014/11/04

Labour unions

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Labour unions are a curious thing. They have an indispensable function in a market economy, but they also tend to fill out a political role, and the latter typically opposes political turns towards dictatorship - even up to nation-wide general strikes.

Labour unions have been weakened in the Western world since the late 1970's due to political and other reasons, though: Both economic development and political opposition by ruling right wing governments have caused this decline. The political alignment of most labour unions with the left wing sets the right wing into an opposing political role, and right wing governments rare have qualms about weakening the labour unions (right wing-aligned ones often excepted) by blunting their tools.
It's historical irony that the governments known for the most union-busting in the Western world during the 1980's hailed the rise of the Solidarność labour union, which opposed the "communist" government of Poland.
 

Quick jump back to the economic role of a labour union:
It doesn't take much experience or imagination to understand that a single replaceable worker on his own has little to bargain with a multinational corporation with billions of profit. United workers on the other hand can collectively refuse to work under the given conditions and thus shut down the operation of the company and thus hurt its profits, which gives them substantial bargaining power.
Three outcomes are possible: The labour union may still be weaker and not be able to get an agreement on 'fair' wages and work condition, it might be the equal of its counterpart and be able to just get 'fair' wages and work conditions and finally it may be more powerful than its counterpart.

The anti-labour union sentiment is largely about the possibility of the 3rd case and about unnecessarily harmful strike strategies. The latter can be tuned away through legislation - one only needs to do it (which those opposed to labour unions fundamentally prefer not to do in favour of weakening the labour union). A bargaining power asymmetry favouring of the employees is just as wrong as an asymmetry in favour of the employers, so a good government strives for a fair balance. It's difficult to tell what a bargaining power symmetry is, though. The practical way is to at least recognize whether the current is a clear asymmetry or not (and in whose favour an asymmetry is).

The ability of workers to strive for fair instead of lopsided negotiation is a freedom issue, as it is about freedom from exploitation. You wouldn't be free if some guy next door could without good reason take a tenth of your income, for example. The ability of an employer to withhold a tenth of your fair income from you due to superior bargaining power is essentially the same. And the exploitation of powerless workers can go much farther, and did in more dark times. In some places at some times a worker couldn't even leave his job because he would be blacklisted by all other employers in the sector due to an agreement amongst employers. Imagine a master in printing with 20 years job experience being effectively shackled to his job. And there were other techniques of exploitation as well, this fantastic song describes one:


Some systemic problems of labour unions could be addressed by explicitly restricting their activities to economic matters, outlawing political activity. This would be highly questionable and risky even if political activity by counterweights such as employers associations was outlawed as well. That's impossible anyway, for some of their counterparts are private citizens (billionaires etc.).


To get the power balance between employees and employers right goes beyond economics, but it's a big deal in itself. Germany had labour market-related reforms in 2003 and 2004. These followed about a decade of employer association propaganda about competitiveness and did indeed increase the international competitiveness of the German businesses. This is a consensus view, which can also easily be seen in an extraordinary shift of the balance between capital and labour income which happened 2003-2007: The share of labour income in national income fell from 71% in 2003 to 63.6% in 2007 with capital income share going from 29% to 36.4%. The capital owners had their situation improved by a quarter.
Profits have suffered later during the economic crisis (weakened demand for export products), masking the domestic redistribution towards capital owners considerably (labour income temporarily back to 68%).*

The reforms obviously didn't make the market economy go smoother only. It was in great part about redistribution of income from employees to employers, and the mentioned data doesn't even show the gains made by top managers since it treats their income as labour income, not capital owner income.
The increase in competitiveness wasn't necessary at all, despite the employer side propaganda. Germany's trade balance was about balanced. The shift was harmful indeed, as the fixed exchange rate regime with most other European countries known as Euro currency didn't balance trade any more. Germany entered a phase of huge, partially harmful and needless trade surpluses which contributed a lot to the current Economic mess in Europe that may be a long-term security risk.

Meanwhile, German labour unions keep losing member strength. Their bargaining power is largely down, and it's only custom and legislative environment which keep their wrecks afloat as relevant players.
A currently debated (in Germany) exception are specialised labour unions which accept only such employees as members who have a lever role. Personnel working in trains, airline pilots and traffic controllers specifically. These specialised labour unions have proved to be powerful, since strikes of their members have a disproportionate effect. Economic theory indicates that their members should probably be paid very well if they have indeed such an exceptional importance, but people are more used to seeing them a couple levels lower than for example plastic surgeons in income. The classic labour unions which try to represent entire sectors instead of only small shares of a company's employees have opposed their competition as well.
Finally, the general population is not very inclined to suffer from temporary mobility infrastructure blackouts just in order to help a small group get better pay and work conditions (event hough the latter influence the safety onboard). The German government (cabinet and parliament) currently move to cut down the power of such specialised labour unions in favour of the classic ones.
Still, the success of the specialised niche labour unions shows that it is indeed about the (im)balance of power. It's not globalization or whatever supposed change of the world that keeps employees from having a good bargaining position.
_________

I suppose the crisis around labour unions wouldn't be nearly as severe if two things were different:
(1) A more widespread understanding that it's about power (a)symmetry in an important market economy function, not about good and evil
(2) A sincere desire to solve the problem, including a readiness to leave traditional paths.


Here's a model how to get the balance right without the negative economic effects such as strikes in public transportation:

Replace the strikes with a fine system:
The labour unions would be obliged to raise a certain percentage of their members' incomes as membership fees with regulation on how much and when they could or have to pay something back.
When despite all rules no agreement about wages and work conditions in the next period can be found between employers and employees, there would be a labour dispute, but not with strikes. Instead, for every day of non-agreement with either one party insisting on the labour dispute, both would suffer monetarily. The labour unions would lose a percentage of their capital reserves every day to the government, and the employers would lose a percentage of their last three years average turnover or profits (whatever share is greater) to the government.** The government would be obliged to buy back debt obligations with the money.
The labour dispute ends with an agreement or if the labour unions runs out of money, in which case the pre-existing wages and conditions would be extended. Other labour unions would be allowed to help the struggling one with credit.

The percentages mentioned would be set by legislation, and this means the government would have an elegant ability to balance the power of both employers and employees.

Bargaining power may still be lopsided with this kind of regulation, but this could be factored into the future voting decisions of the citizens.
_________

I wrote earlier about mature countries and their relative inability to reform or reallocate resources well. This text picked one example of something going wrong without effective remedy applied, and at the same time it pointed out how we could still find a remedy if only we looked more objectively at the problem and were ready to enact substantial changes. This theme pertains to many problems, including bureaucracy-related ones.

S O

*: Source: Destatis, website of the German federal statistics agency. See chapter 1.3 here.
**:: The percentages could be really small, such as 0.3% of annual profit/labour union reserves per day, to offer them time for reconsidering their stance. The percentage would be adjusted if only a share of the employees are involved in the labour dispute. There's no hurry, after all. Without strikes, the outside world would not be affected unfavourably.

edit 12-2014: Even more details would be needed to make the scheme work in light of companies without turnover, such as R&D subsidiaries. In this case, "budget" or "expenses" could substitute for "turnover".
 

2014/11/02

Scare of this season: Multinational Jihadist

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IS/ISIS/ISIL/-IS-something has become a prime and kind of favourite bogeyman and scare since this June. And IS-something is apparently largely (maybe a third, maybe two thirds of fighters) a foreigners-run organisation.

The all-too reflexive, intuitive reaction in the Western countries to this was perfectly predictable in its primitiveness:

IS-something = evil !!!
Help others against IS-something !!!
Bomb IS-something !!!
Separate IS-something from its money and revenues !!!
Create a symbol, preferably somewhere where Western reporters can provide photos and videos without too much risk !!!
Keep people from joining them !!!
Fear those who returned after they (tried to) join them !!!

- - - - -

To restrict travel of Western citizens is usually frowned upon. Still, efforts to keep young men from travelling to Syria were tolerated all-too easily these days, and it shows yet again that the people who hold freedom up with words and the people who actually hold freedom up in face of at least a minor scare are two groups of very different sizes.
A loss of freedom is a downside of travel bans.

Supposedly, there are substantial upsides. Supposedly, these substantial upsides are self-evident. We would have had a public discussion on them if they weren't, right?

Now what are these upsides, these advantages of restricting the freedom of travel and of allocating resources at 'handling' returning once-"foreign fighters"?

I found no such list (conspicuous, isn't it?), so I made my own list of potential advantages:

(1) Returning foreign fighters/jihadists are dangerous
(2) To weaken IS to serve our interests
(3) To weaken IS to serve the interests of people in the region
(4) To save the young men from the horrors and risks of the civil war.
(5) To protect the own countries relationships with and reputation among other countries


About (1) "Returning foreign fighters/jihadists are dangerous"

By Chams Eddine Zaougui and Pieter van Ostaeyen, July 2014

Richard McNeil Willson, May 2014

The Economist, August 2014

This sounds to me as if this case is more complicated than intuition or primitive hostility reflexes can handle well.

About (2) "To weaken IS to serve our interests"

One needs to be delusional to believe that 'we' in the West have interests in that area itself. The "oil" argument is worn out. We don't need that oil, and if someone else needs it, this someone else would be concerned - not us. Military action has never been a cost-efficient means to lower oil prices anyway.
IS cannot strike at us from the distance, and won't be able to do so, period.

The only NATO member in the region is Turkey. Its opinion should have the greatest weight on the topic of Syria, though not a dominating one. NATO is (by its still effective founding document) a defensive alliance, after all.

About (3) "To weaken IS to serve the interests of people in the region"

Beheadings and similar actions are unpleasant even to distant observers, but I find it conspicuous how selective our outrage about beheadings is. Poor manners are very common amongst civil war participants, so most alleged and real atrocities don't really single out IS.
What's singling out IS in regard to atrocities is the media coverage about the same.

The still low intensity of the intervention is unlikely to really defeat IS. It appears more directed at containing it. Moreover, the hope that foreigners will deal decisively with the foreigners-run IS may keep the people in the region from standing up and kicking them out by themselves.

IS is rumoured to have 18,000-30,000 fighters, maybe 60,000 with a very wide definition. 
Syria has about 18 million inhabitants. Iraq has about 36 million inhabitants.

How delusional does one need to be to think that some intercontinental intervention is necessary to stop IS? Didn't we tell the Arabs for years that their problems are rooted in their own failures and that they need to stand up and do something about it themselves? An intervention gives them an excuse to not do precisely this.

About (4) "To save the young men from the horrors and risks of the civil war"

There is the institution of protective custody, so we are no foreigners to the idea of restricting freedom to take away the freedom to harm oneself.
I've never really seen concerns about the safety of 'our' jihadists brought forward as an (attempted) justification for anything, and it's striking that nobody felt alarmed enough to intervene when Westerners went to fight in more 'favoured' conflict parties.

About (5) "To protect the own countries relationships with and reputation among other countries"

 I've never seen this argument used either, and I flat-out reject it. Reputation is no good-enough reason to restrict freedom of travel of anyone. And if it was, Germany should first think about outlawing travels to Thailand and Mallorca before it even only considers Syria.



This wasn't comprehensive, but I think the message is clear:
The reaction to the IS/foreign jihadism phenomena is in my opinion a primitive reflex. Warmongers seized the opportunity to get people and stuff bombed yet again.

S O
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