Showing posts sorted by date for query military spending. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query military spending. Sort by relevance Show all posts

2026/11/08

We need a different way of war

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NATO has been dominated by the American way of war from the beginning. This American way of war rested on superior industrial output, domination at sea and domination in the air. Most European countries gave up on the pre-1945 model of European (land) warfare in which every army expected little support from the air and knew that wartime (=mobilised) strength matters, not peacetime active strength (=only relevant for training the reserves and officer cadre).

Then, when the Americans withdrew from the ground war in South Vietnam, the American Way of War changed: They began pursuing "overwhelming power", "total air dominance" and so on - not just to win battles, but to fight and win battles ideally without taking blows themselves. They also moved to an all-professional (and volunteer reserves) model of military forces, which led them and almost everyone in NATO away from obsessing about mobilised strength and instead focusing on peacetime military strength.

The navies were the most extreme. They were and are largely lacking air/sea battle experience in the missile era and totally lacking sea/sea experience in the missile era. No veteran of naval battles from the gun era is still training or advising, either. Warships are designed with the intent of stopping each and every incoming missile. A single hit may be manageable or catastrophic. The answer was largely to seek air defences that would not permit any incoming missiles to leak the defensive umbrella and hit the ship. We have marginal ship-missile combat experience and none to back up any such infallible force field attitudes. We do have much more land-missile and land-aircraft combat experiences and track records, and they point at air defence lethality that's way too bad to support confidence in quasi infallible naval air defences. In the end, navies have kind of forgotten that they would take terrible blows in major war at sea and the concept that surface warships may be survivable enough only far away from a hostile great power does not appear to be present in force development. I see no writing about modern transport submarines (transport submarines were used by Germany (WW1), Italy (WW2) and Japan (WW2) before) as a reaction to doubts about the ability to convoy to Guam or even Taiwan during wartime.

The most extreme facet is BMD. There's the ambition to had kill (shoot down) every incoming BMD missile that may hit a relevant target. Factor in "hypersonic" glide vehicles that can manoeuvre a lot. This makes it impossible to rule out that any incoming missile may miss its target (something that Iron Dome is able to do against purely ballistic rockets) until it's too late to intercept. The costs of even only trying to establish a near-100% hard kill BMD protection is ridiculous. The Iranians show even to the public that the attacker can defeat such aspirations by launching more relatively cheap quasiballistic rockets. First you shoot your lesser quality rockets to deplete the defender's intercept missile stocks, then you strike with your most accurate missiles. Hard kill BMD is a losing proposition.

That aforementioned post-Vietnam American Way of War - turbocharged during the Reagan administration and seemingly vindicated during the Gulf War 1991 - requires two things to shine:

(1) giant budgets and (2) avoidance of hot conflict with opposition capable enough to tear down the Potemkin' facade.


Europe panicked about Russia and Germany in particular (but also Poland) reacted with ludicrously increased military budgets. The extremely poor display of Russian armed forces against Ukraine (a country that never properly spent to prepare for defence until 2022) doesn't keep people who slept over the entire defence topic from getting scared shitless. Nor do such people compare actual military power. European NATO could attack Russia and occupy Moscow within a few weeks (if not days) of campaigning without any force increase, simply by first moving its peacetime strength into position for attack. This would also be true if Russia achieved victory in Ukraine first and Russian (first) use of nukes would not change the outcome. The only ways how Russia could defeat European NATO is by exploiting that our politicians are weak pussies, selected by our political systems for prowess in domestic political fights, not for character. To spend more on armed forces doesn't eliminate this weak point. I may write more about this later.


So back to the core issue: People need to understand that you take blows in warfare. No boxer can block all punches during his career, or even only finish every fight without bleeding. The pursuit of invulnerability is bollocks and a waste of resources. We need a way of war that works for us, and we should not pursue more than that, for all extras require wasteful spending. Most of all, we in European NATO need to deal with the one real weak spot that undermines our security: Useless pussy politicians in power that are toys to the likes of Putin regardless of military power. 



S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2026/08/17

High and low end surface to surface missiles

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There are two land-to-land ballistic rocket design philosophies in the SRBM and MRBM brackets:

One is the kind we in the West have known well for decades. It's high-performing, compact, safe to store for many years, accurate, reliable, proprietary design and most importantly, it's built for manoeuvres and with countermeasures to make intercept super hard.

The other kind is by comparison crude, but can still be made to hit the factory you're aiming it at.

 

The high end rocket defeats defences by surviving them (only to crash into the target soon after). The low end rocket defeats defences by being still a difficult-enough and threatening-enough target to warrant the use of two interceptor missiles that each cost more. This way, defences can be overcome by attrition if you can afford volume production of the attack rocket. On top of this, the low end rocket does almost the same job against undefended or poorly defended targets. Its reliability and precision would be worse, but you'd get the job done at a smaller budget.

A case can be made that a hi-lo mix would make sense, but IMO the case of the high end rockets would be fairly niche. You don't need the ability to overcome defences without attrition or saturation if you have attrition and saturation potential in the arsenal anyway. The only need for the high end would be for naval use (most punch in small weight and volume budget) and for targets that require a very high precision.

Now look at this:

found here

 

Ballistic rockets are different. You do not get REALLY cheap with either them or defences against them. Furthermore, air defence that adapts and achieves a high kill rate would be expensive and thus self-defeating. It would also have a small footprint (small protected area) unless it's intercepting exoatmospheric, which makes the intercept missile really expensive. So it would need to be deployed in many places.

There's thus good reason to believe that an arsenal of low end (kinda affordable) MRBMs would not be defeated in a long time. On the other hand, using economics and thus taking into account interest effects, any big spending on military power long before a war or the need for powerful deterrence would have inflated cost due to accumulated interest. So there's no good reason for lots of countries to build up large low end MRBM arsenals for deterrence. 


S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2026/07/23

End the stupid little cold war!

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This stupid little cold war between Greece and Turkey has to end. It's not affordable to Greece to waste so much money on it year after year when super-cheap diplomacy is the alternative.

Greece is member of Lisbon Treaty, its article 42 is an alliance provision. An attack by Turkey means all EU members are obliged to defend Greece. Yes, even the Austrians Their opinion on this matter is irrelevant, for they ratified the treaty and are bound by it.

To end this stupid little cold war requires one major EU country to have not completely useless politicians in charge. The Greeks should propose the plan to elevate Article 42 Lisbon treaty to general knowledge, then the Turks commit a single provocation of any kind (such as airspace violation), then said not completely useless politicians react to it as they would react to an incursion by Iran into turkey: Send a couple fighters and a SAM battery. Dare the Turks to repeat the provocation and if they do, shoot down that aircraft or bomb that territorial waters-invading ship.

Gloves off, skipped gloves on - just as Turkey did with the Russians, shooting down a Russian jet that invaded Turkish airspace for a few seconds only.

They will understand and Europe will have its alliance lifted from paper tiger to living alliance. Greece can henceforth reduce its military spending to 1% GDP while being safer than on its status quo trajectory.



And now for something completely different:

Did I ever mention  that our politicians are completely useless pussies? 

 

related:

/2009/12/greek-fiscal-troubles-and-military.html

/2014/08/if-western-great-power-gaming-wasnt-so.html 

/2015/02/the-miracle-of-greeces-defence-spending.html

/2017/12/that-stupid-little-cold-war.html 

 



S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de
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2026/01/29

The impending crash

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I leaned a bit out of the window and anticipated doom on Twitter:

https://x.com/DefenceFreedom/status/2016438597230961078

The U.S.' public debt amounts to about 38 trillion dollars. About 9 T $ need to be refinanced in 2026 and about 2 T $ new debt needs to be financed in 2026.

The monetary and foreign policies of the lying moron discourage foreigners from buying dollars or lend money. So who is going to finance the U.S.' excesses? The U.S. treasury ("printing" money) is the prime candidate.

2027 will be worse. Less debt to refinance, but the refinancing of 2026 will only be possible at much higher interest rates (and probably inflation-indexing), so the debt service will be crushing. The deficit may be around 3 T $ in 2027.

Yes, I know about fiscal years not being the same as calendar years, but I am writing about the financing of the budget during the calendar year here.

Back to the money "printing": Money creation to fund a substantial share of a country's government leads to high inflation, possibly hyperinflation. The degre of economic literacy at the top of the U.S. government already led to attacks on the central bank's independence.

A demand for low interest rates by the central bank is an almost obvious policy to come, so there's no way the central bank can credibly fight inflation.

Keep in mind trillions of $ are likely to flow back to the U.S., as their holders fear loss of value. 

Trade cannot cope with this. The dollar will become extremely weak. So extremely weak that inflation of imported goods will provoke exchange rate interventions, burning foreign exchange reserves for no gain.

A weak dollar may be good for exporting U.S. businesses, BUT the U.S. lacks the economy and skilled labour force to quickly expand its industry within two or three years to exploit an export-friendly exchange rate quickly.

Something else will be very quick, even near-instant: Importing will be very expensive with a weak dollar. This may wreck industries that have globalised supply chains.

The U.S. was on a bad path trade-wise for about 25 years already. Now there's a cabal of idiots in charge that don't understand that keeping what you have is demanding at that level, throw away what they have and thus become the trigger of collapse.

Unsustainable waste such as the insanely big military budget gets grown instead of cut back. Foreign lenders lose motivation to fund the U.S. lifestyle of living off credit. The USD loses its dominant reserve currency status.

The chicken comes home to roost. They make America small again.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Poland-Lithuania won't take over the once-dominant role of the U.S.. China will do & in ~20 years India will challenge China. Most people in Poland-Lithuania will enjoy a nice life in wealth & security - if the climate allows for it.

True prosperity comes form work and avoiding waste, not from living off cedit. Superpower or even only Great Power status is not needed for prosperity, as evidenced by countries such as Luxembourg, Brunei, Singapore.

Americans may have a fine life once they reach an approximately sustainable path, including taxing the rich for real again. Their next 5-8 years won't be nice, though. 

I disinvested from a MSCI World ETF two days ago. It was always the plan to not try to beat the market, but I wanted to get rid of the extreme exposure to the USD and the U.S. and am moving to a MSCI World ex US ETF.


The U.S. trade balance deficit, federal budget deficit and military spending were on about one level for a while, hinting that the U.S. actually cannot sustain its consumption (which includes the government consumption of military power expenditures) without perpetual willingness of the rest of the world to give lend money. The lying moron's policies are now the trigger to end this willingness - and it was always ridiculous to assume it would be perpetual anyway.

The upside? The PRC is most unlikely to make a violent move to get Taiwan in the next three years. It can instead wait for the Americans to collapse fiscally and economically. Purges in the armed forces to ensure loyalty to the Fascist regime as well as the stupidity at cabinet level will reduce military capability beyond any budget crunch that's going to happen when the economic base falters.

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2025/07/11

A track record that needs no hiding

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I searched for an old blog post to quote and instead found a blog post-sized comment of mine (colouration added):

I covered Russia previously
http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2007/08/no-major-war-in-europe-in-next-ten.html
and as much as I like low military spending, it's a bit more complex than what you suggest.
I don't expect them to turn on us militarily in a few years (rather on Ukraine), but don't exclude it as a possibility.


First problem: Lags (a.k.a. initiative)
The reacting powers would react with a lag of about three years due to imperfect information collection, processing and distribution.

Second problem: Aggressor's timing advantage
An aggressor can plan ahead to be ready for war in year x (Hitler planned 1940 for basic readiness, 1944 for full readiness against Russia and 1947 for naval readiness against the UK).
He can ensure that his forces are fit at that time. A reacting power - no matter whether low or high expenditures in peacetime - is at a disadvantage.
High peacetime expenditures can even be a disadvantage, as the equipment will be older on average than the aggressor's (example France 1940 - it still had many WWI guns).

My conclusion (I wrote several blog posts around it) is that we need to be aware that conventional warfare is the only truly threatening one (besides genocidal nuclear warfare). Militias at the end of our world will never touch us much, they cannot invade us or cut our sea lanes. Conventional warfare deserves our attention.

Our policy as well as our armed services need to be fit to react quickly.
We need good education for the relevant politicians, a good cultivation of military competence
(including a reserve of trained soldiers; basic infantry training suffices to save 6+ months of lag) and we need always competitive hardware designs.
That's more easily done by many incremental steps instead of 35-year- development and replacement cycles as usual for much of our hardware.

Finally, we need to prevent that these precautions take effect - we should prevent WW3. Reduce reasons for war, don't create new ones - and avoid wasteful arms races and wars.

Published in February of 2009. The typical contents of military blogs and military news were still dominated by the occupation war in Iraq at that time.

 

I can proudly state that I'm still 100% behind those statements and feel pretty good compared to most people who actually got paid in the 2009...2021 period for commentary or studies on military affairs.

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2025/06/05

Rackets

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So according to the news, the German minister of defence comes with news from NATO; according to NATO directives or whatever Germany is supposed to add formations to its armed forces.

Meanwhile, some American dipshit in office blathered something about seeing NATO countries moving towards 5% GDP military spending.

 

This truly is the idiocracy timeline !

 

The German constitutions says 

Article 87a
[Armed Forces]

(1) The Federation shall establish Armed Forces for purposes of defence. Their numerical strength and general organisational structure must be shown in the budget.

Translated to commoner language, this means it's the legislative branch that defines the general organisational structure in Germany, NOT the minister of defence. I understand it's done differently in practice, but the German minister of defence has jack shit authority to define the general organisational structure of the German armed forces (except in his capacity of also being a member of parliament and having one of hundreds of votes in there).

That's exactly as much (=jack shit) authority as NATO does have in the matter.

This is a well-established racket. It's something similar to the appeal to authority fallacy.  

 

Regarding the 5%: Dipshit's own country won't spend that, there's no reason to bother paying attention to the word salat puke of the lying moron. There's no 5% GDP military spending agreement, no 5% GDP military spending obligation - there's none for 2% GDP, either.

Our #1 defence policy issue is the efficiency of spending followed by keeping China out of Europe. The military spending budgets are plentiful, regardless of the fact that claiming the opposite is fashionable.

 

related:

/2017/02/stephen-m-walt-on-2-debate.html

/2018/04/patterns-of-propaganda-for-higher.html

 

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2025/05/30

The "new" warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian War

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A string of twitter threads by different authors create an impression that this war is very different, kind of with different rules than previous wars, military doctrines from pre-2022 are obsolete now.

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1927076283000701067

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1927714854351085928

https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1928183254089429005

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1926930735266509094

I object.

 

Quite generally, when somebody claims that previous military theory is obsolete you should ask yourself what previous military theory this person knows about. You're nearly perfectly safe if you assume the answer is "very, very little" even if said person is a general.  Very few people dedicated much of thier lives tot he study of the art of war and people who learned some of it profesionally (such as generals) hardly ever learned much that goes beyond their own country's doctrine, and very little about how and why their county's doctrine came to be.

The drone war in Ukraine isn't terribly new. It's almost exactly a replay of the air war development 1911-1945, for example.

 

Yes, the kamikaze FPV threat is severe to up to 9 km depth, often extending to 20 km and rarely extending beyond that with almost none happening beyond 40 km depth against non-strategic targets.The long-established military term in English for this is "battlefield interdiction", and air forces aspire to do it not to 40 km depth, but to hundreds of kilometres depth.

To move yourself or goods to the front seems like running the gauntlet on the final 40 km and gets the worse the more close you are to the front? Does that sound all-new to you? Then you're not aware of the experience of the Japanese merchant marine trying to resupply distant island bases in the Pacific War or the experience of the German armed forces in France during June 1944, when the Northern French railway and airfield network was bombed to swiss cheese standards by the 9th Air Force. Do you think it's now that quadcopters are capable of cheap PGM-like precision attacks even on individuals? 8th Air Force fighters got bored in 1945 and began strafing individual bicyclists hundreds of kilometres away from frontlines in 1945.

What's "new" is that wer're in a brief "the bomber always gets through" pahaes during which there aren't enough counter-drone ("C-UAS") defences, so drones of BOTH SIDES are effective at battlefield interdiction instead of one side establishing low level air superiority/supremacy or both sides defending effectively to diminish the threat. That's about the situation we had in the very early 1930s when bombers were not slower than fighters.

All those improved fortifications, evolved through wartime experience? That's fortifications designed by amateurs who learned lessons by spending blood. There were VASTLY better field fortification schemes back in the 1950's already, but the overwehlming firepower of nukes didn't allow them to become very central to doctrines. Netting not just for concealment, but also for keeping drones out is new, but it's also pointless in face of the heaviest anti-trench munitions (bombs, TOS-1, napalm B).

Tanks get cages to keep FPV drones out? How is that conceptually different from cages to keep hand grenades out?

The frontline with up to 40 km battlefield interdiction poses a different challenge than pre-2022 warfare for breakthrough efforts? Sure, but is it really new, or worse? Breakthroughs against ready defenders were never easy, after all. I actually madke the case that the drone war situation is liberating in a way; suppose the FPV munitions are effective in a radius of 10 to 20 km. Traditional ATGMs were effective in a radius of 0.6 to 4 km mostly, with 2 km being a common practical limit in Ukrainian terrain. Now look at my (very) old text about repulsion and let it sink in. The increased radius of action actually liberates the attacker, he doesn't get channeled! Pre-2022 the same effort looked like this and it was the shorter rnage of the ATGMs that was slowing down the attacker. Now there's no such measures to limit losses to ATGMs. Attackers who would want to breakthrough could shout 'Damn the torpedoes, flank speed ahead!' and the breakthrough could be VERY quick if done well, which includes dealing with the WW2 revival band of mines, anti-tank ditches and gimped dragon's teeth as well as a fires plan that would make 1917's Bruchmüller proud.

I could go on, feel free to bring up true novelties in the comments. I have a hunch I'll reply with a military history analogy.

 


Patton was once asked about how he was such a good general and he replied (paraphrased) that nothing was really new to him during WW2. He knew everything from books already. Such students of military history and art people don't get fooled by fake novelty, but they are RARE.

Don't get fooled by people who claim novelty and impossibility because they don't know the past.

 

related:

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2009/02/fact-check-military-hardware-novelty.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2009/02/update-ugv-history.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2015/05/another-fact-check-military-hardware.html 

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2023/07/russian-fortifications-present-old.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2025/05/c-uas-on-battlefield-at-very-low.html

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2025/04/24

The U.S. as we knew it for the past ~45 years may be collapsing, lying moron or no lying moron

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Budget deficits are no problem for a state as long as the trend GDP growth (and thus trend revenue growth) is stronger than the growth of public debt. Suppose there's a country with a GDP of 1,000 and a debt of 1,000. This country may have an annual budget deficit of 50 (5 %GDP). This is really bad with economic stagnation, but with a (hypothetical) growth trend of 5%GDP p.a. (50 per year) the deficit would actually be sustainable unless interest rates rise and grow the deficit.*

Let's look at the development of public debt in the U.S.:


A budget deficit projection of around 5 %GDP p.a. seems optimistic to me (there's good reason to expect bigger deficits), more about this later.

Now what does the GDP growth trend in the U.S. look like?


That looks strongly as if something close to 3% p.a. GDP growth is a reasonable expectation.

 

Let's pay attention to why the deficit developed as it did. 

  1. The long term trend was that Republicans in control of both Congress and White House did cut taxes (thus revenue, fairytales about tax cuts being budget neutral don't fly in continental Europe) and increased spending (especially military spending). The Republicans basically have two policies for economic growth; they claim that their tax cuts bring growth (not for real!), but what really brings growth is the sugar high of deficit spending.
  2. Republicans do on the other hand try to starve the executive branch off funds whenever it's being controlled by a Democrat in the White House. Then they suddenly claim that they're extremely concerned about the lack of sustainability of deficits and social security and run scare campaigns to build up political support for budget cuts. They usually spare the military from cuts, though. These periods of Republicans controlling the purse and a Democrat controlling the spenders (the executive branch) show an improvement of the budget balance. The improvement even reached a surplus late in the Clinton administration, but the improvements (reduction of deficits in %GDP) are visible during the Obama and Biden administrations as well.
  3. Democrats in control of Congress and  Republicans in control of the White House tends to play out as Republican Presidents largely getting the budget size they want.
  4. Another mode is Democrats in control of both legislative and executive branches. This leads to deficits, but in normal times these are not as extreme ones as when Republicans are in full control.
  5. The fifth mode is disaster mode; 2008 Great Recession, 2020 Covid. This produces huge spikes of deficit spending, seemingly regardless of the party in power.

The Republicans are now in control and about to establish a dictatorship on a spectrum from one party dictatorship to overt Fascism. The remaining lifetime and effectiveness of the lying moron decides what it becomes. Their majorities in Congress are small, but they are a thing, and it's clear that they are by now "Republicans" in name only. Actions speak louder than words.

A true republic would likely continue the dysfunctional up and down of the past 45 years (hopefully without a 3rd giant disaster). To project about 5 %GDP budget deficits for the next ten years as in the 1st graphic makes sense under the assumption of a true republic.

A "Republicans"-controlled U.S. on the other hand would likely go all-in on the "Republican" orthodoxy of cutting taxes for the rich (fig leaves for the middle class) and undisciplined deficit spending, including growing military spending. To project a %GDP budget deficit development from 5 %GDP p.a. towards about 8 %GDP p.a. by 2030 seems most plausible for this scenario to me. An issue is that they may enter a war to distract from their domestic policy issues.

So the growth of the public debt till 2030 would likely be in the 27...35 %GDP range. It's at about 123 % GDP by now, so the path to 2030 would be around 150...158 %GDP.

Now let's look at economic growth. Economic growth can be explained by increased inputs (more hours worked, influx of foreign capital pushing investment, greater exploitation of natural resources) and technological progress. The Americans already work many hours per week with few vacation days and holidays per year, so there's little room for increase. Anti-immigration policies will reduce the hours worked (though an increase of pressure on unemployed people may partially compensate for this). The growth of working age population is projected to be very weak. Finally, the misogynistic leanings and traditionalism of the Republicans do not promise an increase of the percentage of females in jobs unless there#s workforce mobilisation for a war economy. 

The Biden administration was already quite eager to exploit natural resources (example crude oil) contrary to some perceptions, so there's little potential for improvement in the next couple years (and IMO also in the 30's).

Finally, technological progress. The rate of it has been shrinking since the 70's. You may look up articles on whether technological progress is slowing yourself, I didn't find a really great one. The phenomenon has been known for a while, and it's not an American one - technological progress has slowed in all rich Western countries. It's the same story in Germany, UK and so on - sometimes even worse because the U.S. recovered particularly well from the Great Recession due to huge deficit spending fiscal stimulus efforts early in the Obama administration.

Long story short; there's no reason to expect a trend growth better than what we've seen in the 2nd graphic. about 3% p.a. GDP growth is a reasonable expectation. Politicians promise much, but they never deliver a clear growth trend improvement in an already well-developed economy. 

So there's likely going to be 5...8 %GDP annual deficits and 2...4 % GDP growth p.a. on average. The former because of policy and the latter because of fundamentals that politicians can do little about (unless they deport too many people, as then both deficits and growth would become worse).

Where is the breaking point? I wrote about 150...158 %GDP public debt by 2030. Japan has about 250 %GDP, Singapore about 170 %GDP, Italy about 135 %GDP public debt. There's apparently no accurate breaking point. The U.S. might keep going forward on its unsustainable path (the trade balance is terrible as well) for quite some time. On the other hand, it might collapse anytime as well. To alienate Europeans, Australians, Canadians, Japanese, South Koreans and Taiwanese may create a tipping point in one way or another, for example when confidence in the USD as reserve currency takes a big hit. The cardhouse may collapse if and when the USD loses much of its reserve currency status. There's no reason why all those alienated countries should do the U.S. the favour of keeping the USD as reserve currency. No reserve currency status for the USD means the U.S. could not sustain its trade balance deficits. This means its consumption AND capital investment would collapse. An overtly Fascist U.S. may find it difficult to buy certain capital investmnet goods such as TSMC machines anyway, and right now it's already restricted in terms of rare earths imports. The lying moron's disrespect for Federal Reserve Bank's independent operation as shown in 2017-2020 might create such a tipping point as well. A Sino-American War is a real possibility as well.

The truly scary thing about this is not the possibility of a tipping point or the acceleration of the downhill race. The truly scary thing is the seeming inevitability. The fundamentals cannot really change for the better by much and the political system doesn't appear to be able to improve, either. So the fiscal policy won't improve fundamentally. A long-term dictatorship deserves a projection of a worsening fiscal policy until some kind of disastrous crash occurs that forces a change of a fiscal policy pattern that held for 45 years.

I understand that Americans have been told a plethora of fairy tales and scaremongering stories about this topic. An American who is not an economist would be well-served to ignore those and simply think of the economic growth trend as weakening and being near-impossible to improve, while the budget deficit is essentially about overspending on the military and undertaxing the rich (including the foreign rich; 40% of American stocks are owned by foreigners, so tax cuts on American corporations are in large part tax cuts for rich foreigners). The public debt is not really about escalating healthcare costs (which is stagnating at about 17.x %GDP since the "Affordable Care Act" a.k.a. "Obamacare" went into force) and social security isn't a big driver, either. Example: Social Security had 1.22 T $ revenue and 1.24 T $ expenditures in 2022 - its deficit was tiny in comparison to the federal budget deficit around that time (1.4 T $ in FY 2022).

By the way; the Euro area is not that unsustainable. The public debt stands at about 90% for that area as a whole. The only large Euro area country that's worsening its public debt situation is France. The overall %GDP debt increase in the Euro area was much smaller than the American one and the %GDP public debt level is below 90 %GDP instead of above 120 %GDP. The Euro area has no chronic trade balance deficit, though that may change once the EUR gains use as reserve currency. Last but not least; increases of military spending are unlikely to change this terribly much, as they would act as fiscal stimulus (few Euro zone countries are at economic capacity limit). It's still wasteful to overspend on the military, but increases big enough to propel an European-style about 0.5 %GDP aggregate budgets deficit to an American-style 5 %GDP p.a. budget deficit are plain unrealistic short of WW3.

 

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

 

P.S.: This was originally written 21 Feb 25, but not published right away and slightly edited before publication (addition of the reserve currency issue for tipping points mostly).

*: p.a. = per annum = in a year

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2025/02/25

An URGENT to do list for free Europe

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I hate having been correct so much with my Cassandra warnings about Americans turning Fascist and against Europe. I hate having been correct with my warnings that small wars are bollocks and alliance defence & deterrence are getting too much neglected inf ace of Russian aggressiveness.

I erred on the side of caution and overestimated Russian military and military-technological prowess (which still pointing out that they weren't as strong as they pretend and are widely believed to be).

 

So here's a list of things we need to URGENTLY do now, exploiting that the mainstream finally woke up to 'security policy' being something deserving attention:

 

  1. Harden ourselves against American economic sabotage through Microsoft, Cisco and the likes
  2. Harden ourselves against other American economic sabotage such as cutting us off from SWIFT backoffice financial services.
  3. Quickly create an alternative to Starlink and an alternative to SpaceX's reusable rockets for low satellite lift costs. 
  4. Kick Russian & American intelligence and most "diplomats" out, especially stop tolerating them snooping on our telecoms. This includes closing the "Russian House"s.
  5. Stop relying on NATO, for it's compromised by Americans, Hungarians, Slovakians and possibly Turks
  6. Stop relying on the EU for security policy because it's compromised and blocked by Hungary and Slovakia.
  7. Establish a new alliance that's designed to neutralise 5th column (Americans, Hungarians, Slovaks, Turks and whoever might turn to the dark side) sabotage & betrayals. 
  8. Improve nuclear deterrence based on the French arsenal (though American BMD is turning this into an elevated challenge).
  9. Establish conventional deterrence against the Americans (vs. American threats of naval blockade, naval air attacks and missile attacks)
  10. Kick American troops out of Europe.
  11. Effectively counter propaganda networks (Transatlantiker in Germany, Putin's stooges, European unification ideologues, Murdoch media, TikTok, Twitter) in order to create freedom of political action.
  12. Understand that most European nation states are capable of great efforts, not impotent.
  13. Reorient our armed forces to focus 99% on deterrence & alliance defence.
  14. Force our armed services to become more efficient (liberally fire generals & admirals), including breaking the 'miniature balanced forces' bollocks. The armed forces shall not be permitted to follow self-interest; they exist to serve!
  15. This includes focusing on mobilised strength, not peacetime active duty personnel strength & structure. 
  16. Stop relying on the arms industry. Create arms & munitions production capacity outside of the sluggish established arms makers, just as we did to nowadays unfathomable success in both world wars. The artillery munition production efforts so far are scandalously inept compared to 1915ff and 1939ff.
  17. Understand that Putin's regime has to lose its war of aggression beyond reasonable doubt (no efforts to help them saving face!) and support Ukraine accordingly, including direct intervention. Start by telling the Russians that they have already lost now that we decided so and enact a naval blockade as a first step.
  18. Get ready for a new Cold War, this time against Russia and the U.S.. This goes beyond the pure defensive on the European continents and its peripheral seas.
  19. Stay out of East Asian great power games.
  20. Seek India as defensive ally to add mass and economic potential to the bloc, but be wary of them turning full (Hindu-)Fascist, for we might find ourselves in need of allying with the PRC in the worst case scenario!
  21. Establish a "Stay out of Europe" doctrine vs. the Chinese AND the Americans and enforce it

Please note I did not pretend that huge military spending increases are necessary or in any way central to free Europe's successful deterrence & defence!

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2025/02/18

Appropriate demands for peace talks in the RUS-UKR war

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I've seen some stupid takes on what Russia and Ukraine should negotiate about. So let's write about that.

 

Appropriate points for negotiations are:

(1) Russian armed forces withdraw from Ukraine's territory (as of 2013) within 7 days

(2) Russia recognises the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine (as of 2013)

(3) Russia hands over all minefield maps regarding the Ukrainian territory

(4) All persons who UKR considers to be POW in Russian hands have to be repatriated within 14 days.

(5) All UKR-identified abducted children have to be repatriated within 14 days of UKR demanding it (could be years later) 

(6) Russia has to pay reparations equal to UKR loss of GDP relative to trend path PLUS Ukrainian increases of military spending during invasion 2014 - date of peace treaty relative to 2013 military budget PLUS 200 billion € (for damage done)

(7) Russia has to withdraw all armed personnel from Moldova (Transnistria)

Further appropriate (though not necessary) points for negotiations are:

(8) Destruction of the Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M bombers save for a handful thoroughly demilitarised museum pieces

(9) Demilitarisation of the Russian oblast bordering on Ukraine

(10) Russia recognising the sovereignty and internationally recognised borders of all other CIS countries

(11) Payment of reparations through transfer of seized Russian assets abroad, in USD/EUR/JPY/CHF in annual (inflation correcting) rates for the next 30 years, ten years of steady natural gas deliveries in yearly amount of Ukraine's consumption in 2013 valued at the price it paid for Russian gas in 2013 (no inflation correction)

(12) Russia accepts that the treaty about Russian use of Sevastopol for its navy is voided

(13) Russia  recognises the Holodomor genocide committed by the Soviet government (capital Moscow) against the Ukrainian people 

(14) Russia permits all ethnic Ukrainians and Tatars to move to Ukraine including their wealth

(15) Russia accepts repatriation of all voluntary Russian passport holders in Ukraine

Nice to have:

(16) Demilitarisation of Kaliningrad Oblast

(17) Ban on Russian warships in the Black Sea

(18) Russian withdrawal of armed Personnel from Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) 

(19) Russia returns all captured heavy equipment to Ukraine (to avoid war propaganda shows)

(20) Russia is banned from having airborne ground forces

(21) Russia is banned from having surface target missiles of 100...5.000 km range for 25 years

(22) Russia reimburses the foreign countries who assisted Ukraine for their deliveries to Ukraine (not for domestic capacity building)

(23) Russia reimburses the foreign countries who had expenses for war refugees due to this war 

(24) Russia joins the cluster ban convention (destruction of all covered cluster munitions within 6 months) and permits international inspections to verify its compliance with it

 

Ukrainian bargaining chips are:

(1) occupied Kursk Oblast territory (though it's of symbolic size)

(2) whether, when and which sanctions of Russia end

(3) when Russian POWs will be released

(4) continuing attacks to collapse the Russian economy (especially attacks on and sabotage of oil refineries)

(5) threat of advance on the ground

(6) threat of commerce raiding Russian maritime commerce with auxiliary cruisers with European help

 

Acceptable locations for the negotiations: Switzerland, Ukraine

 

War losers don't gain territory or  reparations.

Aggressors should not be rewarded with territory or reparations.

The Russian Federation is both aggressor and (soon) loser in this war.


Framing the conversation matters. It's irresponsible to let Russians or American idiots frame the discussion on how a peace settlement should look like.



S O
defence_and_freedom@gmx.de
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2024/11/03

Blog posts about American fascism (summary)

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https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2016/11/leaving-nato.html (edited in 2025, initially I forgot about this blog post)

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2019/12/lets-open-our-eyes-to-ugly-reality-as.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2022/07/threat-country-ranking-for-germany-top.html 

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2022/08/it-security-for-real.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2024/07/free-europes-security-challenge-if.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2024/07/free-europes-security-challenge-if_8.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2024/07/free-europes-security-challenge-if_19.html

https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2024/07/free-europes-security-challenge-if_29.html


The sitting POTUS is a weakling in foreign policy and too undisciplined in regard to domestic spending. His predecessor and potential successor is a lying demented moron who is a caricature of a Fascist. A village idiot on the grandest stage because of filthy rich daddy, corrupted media and an already rotten political party.

The European politicians are almost all useless, weak minded people with insular competence at getting into power. None of them prepared properly against the threat of a Fascist America that we may face very soon. I don't mean preparing for facing Russia alone; anyone who pretends that Free Europe couldn't stop Russian military might without American help is a fool. The Russians can't even defeat the Ukrainians who receive a little help. Their Soviet heritage arms and munitions stocks are almost exhausted. No, the issue is that we are not prepared to at least mitigate what harm a Fascist POTUS would want to inflict on us, much less deter any such aggression.

 

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

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2024/07/29

Free Europe's security challenge if America turns full fascist (Part IV)

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(Context of the series: Musings about how Free Europe could defend itself against a U.S. after it turned full Fascist, which regrettably is a realistic scenario.)

Those who defend only lose. Free Europe would rather not have allies who strike at Americans if it's under attack by an America turned Fascist. Thus its needs its own offensive and thus deterrence potential.


Economic warfare

The asymmetry in favour of the Americans is real, but I suppose it's widely underestimated how much Europeans can hurt Americans with economic sanctions. The Americans deindustrialised and are dependent on imports in many categories of products. There would be not just a giant economic shock to Europe in case of transatlantic hostilities, but also in America.

European deterrence & defence policy should should strive to

  • reduce American economic warfare potential against Europe
  • increase European economic warfare potential against America

Realistically, neither faction has the political system or political class to pull much of this off.


Threat to American maritime trade (sea lanes)

The U.S. Navy is a land attack navy, not a trade protection navy. It has ridiculously marginal preparations to protect even only American coastal shipping other than satellite and oceanic hydrophones infrastructure. The American bureaucracy is currently FUBARing a frigate project by spiralling the demands towards its normal preferences. The minehunting capability of the USN is negligible in context of how many ports and straits it has to secure. 

The threat to American sea lanes could thus be realised with relatively modest resources compared to the resources the Americans pumped into their (land attack) navy. Three categories come to my mind:

  1. within practical range of Europe-based air power
  2. close to CONUS
  3. distant oceans

#1 can be covered by European air power - it could be turned into a no-go zone for American cargo ships. The challenge would be to inspect the cargo ships to determine whether they have contraband.

#2 Europeans would be the underdogs here, a classic case for the use of submarines. Nuclear-powered attack submarines have deceived people into thinking that diesel-electric submarines are for short distances in coastal waters only, but that's nonsense. Some WW2 submarines exceeded 30,000 nm range at tonnages that would not be very unusual nowadays for a conventional submarine (and small to extremely small for a nuclear one). So Europeans could build conventional (air independent) submarines capable of reaching and operating in American coastal waters, including deploying very capable naval mines (essentially battery-powered torpedoes that slowly cruise to position and then lie in ambush outside of ports).

#3 is a classic case for armed merchantmen used for commerce raiding. The USN might hunt them using satellites, but there are ways to shake off such tracking, particularly if said satellites are being engaged (damaged or destroyed) while they're over Europe. The armed merchantmen could board ships by helicopter, inspect them for contraband and then take them as prize, force them to turn around or sink them. These armed merchantmen might also sneak up to American warships to launch a surprise anti-ship missile or heavyweight torpedo salvo. They would need external intelligence sources to do this, of course.

Both #2 and #3 would benefit somewhat from preparations such as fortified or clandestine overseas bases with diesel, kerosene and possibly even munitions stockpiles as well as a runway.

 

Threaten CONUS itself

The out of the box approaches for this would be very long range cruise missiles (launched from long-range airliners or disguised ships) and -fashionably- drone swarms. The out-of-the-box approach for Americans who are used to insane military budgets is intercontinental VLO (stealth) bombers supported by long range airliner-based tanker aircraft. These assets would cause some explosions at targets.

But we know that American politicians pursue overwhelmingly the interest of a rich minority (0.1...10% of the population), and a Fascist government would likely do the same plus be paranoid about securing its own power.

Would a few thousand explosions here and there be a deterrent or a welcome propaganda gift to mobilise the population for the war (reduction of consumption to increase military spending)? I suppose the explosions would need to be able to threaten the regime (or provoke infights within it). The super-rich would likely lose relevance once Fascism has taken hold - they're useful idiots to fund Fascism winning the last real elections, and afterwards not so critical any more. It might be more effective to drop USB sticks with propaganda files than to hit even the most leverage targets among industry, military, infrastructure or government buildings. We don't really need to drop USB sticks for that; files can be smuggled past even a great national firewall.


Part V will or would try to cover the "Spaceship" orbital bombardment scenario. The technical side of this is way outside of my comfort zone.

S O

2024/05/03

About high-low army mixes for today's NATO

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Around 2011 I wrote multiple times about a scenario of a Russian surprise attack on NATO (at the only kind of attack that makes kinda sense, for it's the only scenario that gives the Russians a chance) and how this would lead to low force densities (very wide brigade sectors). This in turn would not allow to properly defend a frontline, and the benefits of a frontline (stability, safe resting area behind, counter-scouting) would disappear, the opportunities of a more fluid theatre situation would appear.

Consequently, I wrote many blog posts relevant to that scenario. Now Russia started the biggest post-WW2 war in Europe and the Ukrainians defend the full frontline. Neither Russians nor Ukrainians appear capable of breakthrough. I suppose that's a matter of competence, not of state of the technology or art of war. The Russians even botched the "strategic surprise" part and stumbled into Ukraine as they did into Chechnya in 1994.

My views seemed to be disproven (and I wrote about that a couple times).

Now I would like to claim that the war we're seeing is very similar in many aspects to both World Wars, the Spanish Civil War and the Iran-Iraq War. So there's little new. Even the drones merely repeat the accelerated advance of military aviation in WW1 and the accelerated advance of electronic warfare in WW2.

The concept of both sides appears to be to have a bulk of forces (80-90% ?) suitable for holding a frontline and a few formations set up for either breakthrough (Russian storm units) or main effort (Ukrainian mechanised brigades with Western gear).

Neither side has the competence to do a proper combined arms breakthrough, and the Ukrainian tank forces resemble rather the 'fire brigade' Panzerdivisionen of late 1944 than the 'Blitzkrieg' Panzerdivisionen of 1940-1942. The Russian mechanised forces resemble the French tank divisions of 1940.

It may not sound nice, but both sides suffer badly from insufficient reserves training prior to 2022 and are by now rather amateurish and incapable of combined arms warfare. Both sides are using armed forces that were ridden by corruption for three decades and are rooted in the at most modestly competent Russian army tradition. It's a common symptom that amateurish armies form when armies expand very quickly in wartime, with much of the pre-war experts killed in the opening stage. The American Civil War was such a amateur war. The British Expeditionary Forces were quite amateurish around 1916, too. Historians are usually too nice to point out that insufficiently-trained leaders and troops lead to amateurish, incompetent armies. They do usually research & write about their own country, after all.

The upside of all this is that the Russians gt a demonstration of the limit of their abilities. They do now understand they cannot defeat a 80/20 low-high mix force in the field. They understand that they suffer higher material and personnel losses than a moderately well-done 80/20 mix army, and without the Chinese helping them by the millions of troops the Russians would stand no chance against NATO even if NATO used 80/20 instead of trying to go for all high end forces (in the richer countries).

An all high end NATO might get swamped and overrun by a Sino-Russian force of three million troops in Europe, so maybe we need to counter mass with mass anyway, again leading to 80/20. The Chinese mobilisation potential is well in excess of 150 million men + millions of women for non-combat roles, so NATO might face a sustained incredible numerical inflow of PLA troops of low quality during a long war. We could defeat this only if we're prepared for it - this means at the very least have enough trained junior NCOs to do proper training for our own mobilised mass armies. The point of preparing for this scenario is to deter, avoid the scenario.

The Western way of war proved to be overwhelming to the Soviet arms-equipped 80/20 approach during 1991, but it did so at a time when the West enjoyed a near-monopoly on thermal vision in ground combat and it was in featureless terrain. High-quality munitions were expended at an unsustainable rate. Moreover, most of the ground combat was actually against Iraqi troops already withdrawing in disorder.

The fiscal argument is strongly in favour of 80/20. The 80% troops of the line would not need terribly much training and could be reserve troops. This would greatly save on the scarce personnel, as such reserve forces could have 1,000,000 troops mobilised strength with a peacetime active strength of less than 100,000. This reduces the high direct personnel expenses AND it frees up personnel for civilian, GDP-raising and taxes-paying jobs. A 100,000 € personnel costs soldier job has a true cost to the society of about 150,000...200,000 €. It's plain stupid to unnecessarily keep troops in active duty.

Moreover, those 80% troops of the line would be technologically and fiscally as well as doctrinally feasible for almost all NATO countries. The challenges of a high end tank brigade may not be met by any Western countries these days, and with better effort (focus on conventional warfare) maybe half a dozen NATO countries could master the tank brigade/exploitation brigade pattern well enough for consistent success with it.

So in my opinion 

  • We should prepare NATO defence against Russian strategic surprise attack by 2028 or later
    • This still means first weeks would have low force densities
    • This still means it's important to get combat-ready forces to the front en masse within a few weeks
  • We should prepare NATO defence against a 3 million men Sino-Russian land force 2026 or later
    • This requires enough mass
    • Facing demographic challenges and high costs of labour, we should make use of a hi/low mix with focus on mobilised strength after a few weeks. Peacetime military strength of most NATO members does not matter much for defence. To boost it is inefficient.
  • We should consider helping the poorer NATO members with equipping & training proper brigades of the line
  • We should consider helping the NATO frontier countries with equipping & training surprise-resistant 'first line of defence' forces that can delay incursions well.
  • I keep insisting that forward-deploying brigades and setting up multinational (poor cohesion) brigades and creating small pools of increased (not total shit) readiness forces was and is all bollocks. ALL forces should be up to their tasks. Set up a multi-brigade air/land warfare training ground in Poland with always three or four (rotating) brigades present and maybe entire brigade sets of equipment prepositioned if we absolutely need such a forward presence.


Is there a place for my low force density ideas left? Well, yes, in the exploitation brigades. They do not need to be classic tank brigades or French-style 6x6 wheeled armoured car-based  formations.

I wrote about affordable brigades with reduced expectations (accepting some dependencies on higher level support) before. There's one draft (~80% done) for a text relevant to this.

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

 

P.S.: I should mention that the German, Japanese and Soviet forces of WW2 followed a similar pattern of bulk of forces being poor quality but 15...20% being either elite light infantry or fully motorized troops.  The only Italian troops of WW2 that were effective were concentrated in two divisions and the Bersaglieri battalions of the infantry divisions. Armies had no such high-low mix during the First World War (they thought they had it with the cavalry divisions being high end, but they proved to  rarely be of use). The German army started to be able to breakthrough the Entente in France once it created high end units (assault infantry with actual trench attack training and equipment) in combination with smarter artillery plans. Overall, a high/low mix proved to be the most cost-efficient approach through centuries in Europe. To go all high-end (as Americans with their fully motorised and tank-rich invasion force in 1944) is a luxury left to those with vastly superior industrial resources (or in peacetime: insane military spending).

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2023/10/12

Gaza '23 and more in general: Our politicians are worthless

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This episode of counterviolence breeds counterviolence is part of an ongoing conflict that's older than my mom. It's kind of not really interesting, just noise of tragedy.

 

I see only one hot fix that would work for Israel, and that's sweeping Gaza with hundreds of thousands of troops to weaken Hamas before handing it over to Fatah (their political opponents who control the non-occupied parts of West Bank). Fatah regaining power in Gaza like that would lead to its long-term demise, though.

The pursuit of a two-state solution has failed to deliver on its promise and is an obsolete approach in my opinion. Obsolete or not, a failing poly should be replaced by a more promising one.


Suppose there are two children on the schoolyard taunting and brawling every school day, and have done so for years. I understnad it's fashionable to sit down to talk to them, mediate, talk, tlak, talk.

A more classical (and in my opinion more promising) approach is to not give a s*!t about their opinions and simply enforce the rule that everyone on the schoolyard has to be peaceful, or else will be sanctioned so much that he/she/it regrets to not have been peaceful.

It's time to stop talking to Arabs and Israelis, and to stop hosting talks between them. It's about time they learn to OBEY. They need to obey international law, or be made to regret it. There's almost no prospect that the cycle of counterviolence will end for good just because the involved parties suddenly get nice.

Sadly, the U.S. with its veto power in the UNSC is the main (possibly only) obstacle to this.

The UN(SC) should MANDATE that Egypt takes over Gaza and meets its responsibility to ensure there won't be any attacks on israel from Egyptian (including Gaza) soil. Extremely severe and ten-year sanctions against these countries should commence in 12 months if the UNSC hasn't confirmed their satisfactory compliance until then. Egypt would later be held responsible for every aggression from its soil, just as any country should be held responsible for such a thing.

Ideally, the same should be done regarding Jordan (West Bank) and Syria (Golan Heights), with Blue Helmet (MP, MI and CivMil, not combat troops) support.


Israeli military security concerns about having Egyptian military nearer to Tel Aviv and Syrian military on great vantage points on Golan Hieghts carry ZERO weight, just as Russian desires to have vassal states between itself and NATO carries zero weight.

There's hardly any Syrian conventional warfare military left, hardly any Jordanian military and the Egyptian military will freeze when the U.S. stops subsidising it. Meanwhile, everybody knows that Israel is a nuclear power with a quite robust 2nd strike capability and all of itself is within range of precision-guided missiles nowadays (which devalues depth). So security concerns about reestablishing the 1949 borders are not very substantial anyway.


Maybe if Germany hadn't such a useless, timid, worthless chancellor we could be part of the solution. A charismatic, fluent English-speaking and decisive German chancellor could pressure POTUS Biden through public diplomacy and behind closed doors diplomacy to not veto a 1949 borders restablishment UNSC resolution that mandates Egypt to take over Gaza and establish security. The time for this is perfect. There are many ways how POTUS could be pressures behind the scenes. Germany could threaten to kick out all American troops without giving them time to set up a replacement for Ramstein, it could threaten to leave NATO*, threaten to sabotage U.S. foreign policy in many ways.

That would require a non-fossilised, action-oriented chancellor, though. You can't have any good results with a worthless potatoe. I respect the office of the chancellor, I do not respect the person AT ALL. he should rot in jail for defalcation in the CumEx scandal.

The politicians we have can only think in old narratives and thier only actions are about spending money.

Their inaction thorugh three generations of crisis in the Levante KILL people, just as their inaction in the Mediterranean migration crisis KILLs people.

S O

defence_and_freedom@gmx.de

 

*: Germany is not threatened itself, is also in the EU alliance and there's no such thing as accumulated obligation to stay in an alliance. We can leave the North Atlantic Treaty at will, within a year (see its article 13).

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